379
FXUS65 KSLC 010828
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
228 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain under the
influence of high pressure over the next several days. This will
bring dry conditions, light winds, and continued very mild
conditions with a general warming trend over northern Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...The Pacific Northwest
trough that brought the dry cold front into northern Utah
yesterday has moved well east of the area, while the boundary
itself is weakening over southern Utah. This is leaving Utah and
southwest Wyoming under a roughly northwest flow aloft on the
front side of a broad ridge centered just off the California
coast. Under the influence of this ridge, the forecast area will
remain dry over the next several days. As the ridge builds,
temperatures over northern Utah, which ran about 5F above seasonal
normals yesterday, will gradually warm today into Wednesday, with
values running up to 10F above normal for this time of year. Over
southern Utah, temperatures will remain rather unseasonably warm,
with maxes running in excess of 15F above seasonal normals in some
locations.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Long term period begins with a
dry weak cool front washing out over northern Utah, with a small dip
in temperatures accordingly. Still, temperatures areawide will be
running around 7 to 15 degrees above climatological normal for early
October, and increase further on Friday as ridging becomes more
closely centered near the forecast region. With the forecast
carrying highs in the 80s along the Wasatch Front and upper 90s to
around 100 across Lower Washington County and Zion NP, it appears
pretty likely we`ll see some temperature records broken.

A weak impulse looks to slip around the northern periphery of the
ridge later Friday into Saturday coincident with a grazing shortwave
passing by to the north. Still, guidance shows surprising consensus
in these features only resulting in a brief increase in mid-level
moisture and cloud cover, in addition to the passage of another dry
cool front which will help knock temperatures down a few degrees or
so behind it. That said, wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see some
widely isolated high-based convection try to bubble up, but even so,
would anticipate more virga and associated gusty outflow winds
rather than any sort of real wetting rains. What limited high
resolution guidance is available at this time does at least hint at
this potential, so will have to watch as other available high res
guidance comes into view.

Following the aforementioned excitement, if you can call it that, a
dry and warm ridge dominated pattern is favored to hold into early
next week. Temperatures look to remain roughly 7 to 15 degrees above
normal, making it feel more like early September than October, and
minimal avenues for precipitation are noted. Really, only the
deterministic GFS seems to place the ridge in a favorable enough
location bring a bit more moisture return, and this doesn`t appear
to be a scenario widely shared among the wider range of ensembles
and associated members. Even using the NBM 95th percentile 24-hr QPF
(i.e. 5% or 1/20 chance of exceeding), the earliest any amount of
measurable rain (0.01" or greater) shows up isn`t until Tuesday
onward, and median/50th percentile amounts unsurprisingly carry
nothing. All in all, for those who are enjoying this late summer to
early fall type of mild (and dry) weather, all signs point to you
being in luck for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light south to at times VRB winds expected to
shift northwest around 17Z-19Z Tuesday, with magnitudes through the
day generally remaining at 10 kts or less. A flip back to light
south winds then anticipated between around 03Z-05Z thereafter. For
cloud cover, some high cirrus may continue to filter through during
the TAF period, but conditions to remain VFR.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Quiet weather anticipated as
high pressure ridging starts to build into the region. Winds at area
terminals generally expected to follow a diurnally normal
directional pattern as a result, with most terminals also seeing
light daytime magnitudes at or below 10 kts. That said, some higher
elevation northern terminals nearer the departing trough (such as
KEVW) may once again mix down some gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range
through the afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear aside from some
high cirrus filtering through, with VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific ridge will be the dominant weather feature
for Utah through the week. This will keep conditions dry with
generally light and terrain driven winds. Northern Utah will see a
slight warming trend today into Wednesday with temperatures
remaining very warm over southern Utah. A weak and dry front will
bring ever so slight cooling to far northern Utah for Thursday
before the warming trend returns over the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Warthen

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