545
FXUS65 KSLC 032124
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
324 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong early fall storm system will bring much
cooler temperatures to the region, along with widespread rain and
high elevation snow to northern and portions of central Utah
through Saturday. Cooler and more stable conditions will follow
for Sunday, followed by a warming trend heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent early fall storm system remains on track to
impact the forecast area over the next 36 hours, bringing
widespread rain and high elevation snowfall across northern and
portions of central Utah, along with much cooler temperatures.
Currently showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
across northern Utah within a region of diffluence aloft. These
have been trending a little stronger over the past hour or so, and
deep layer shear will continue to support organized convection
capable of producing large hail and strong outflow winds through
the evening hours. Additionally,

The upstream trough is currently spreading into the western Great
Basin, and will translate eastward through the region overnight
through Saturday. The associated low level baroclinic zone remains
stretches across eastern NV, and will slowly progress eastward
reaching northwest Utah this evening, and eventually crossing the
Wasatch Front during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. This boundary
will likely be accompanied by a convective line bringing a period
of heavy precipitation, with fairly widespread precipitation
filling in behind this line within a region of strong forcing
ahead of the approaching upper trough. As such expect fairly
widespread precipitation across much of northern Utah through the
morning, before becoming more orographically forced and
convective during the afternoon. Snow levels will likely be
dragged as low as 8000 feet with totals of 2-5" mainly above 9000
feet. Rain totals across most northern Utah locations look to be
in the 0.50-0.75" range, with upwards of an inch likely along the
east benches. Amounts will trend lower from Utah County southward
into central Utah, with minimal precip across southern Utah.

Max temperatures will run much cooler Saturday...generally 20-25F
lower across northern Utah, and 10-15F cooler across southern
Utah. This cool airmass will modify a bit on Sunday, but
temperature swill remain roughly 10F below climo across northern
Utah.

A general warming trend will follow through the upcoming week.
Toward the end of the week, all eyes will be on the remnants of a
tropical system off Baja which the models have been fairly
consistently bringing into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain
Region. This continues to be supported by the majority of ensemble
families with some outlier solutions keeping this moisture shunted
well south of the area. Certainly something to watch, as the
potential for widespread heavy rainfall will be there given the
origin of the moisture, but a lot of moving parts will need to
come into alignment for this to happen.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Predominantly southerly winds are expected
through this evening ahead of a cold front passage overnight, with
gusty southwesterly winds through around 02z before winds lighten
up thereafter. Spotty showers developing across northern Utah
this afternoon and evening may bring brief periods of erratic
winds. There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms between 02-05z this
evening. A band of heavy precipitation accompanies the cold front
passage overnight, with potential to yield MVFR VIS and a 30%
chance for thunderstorms. Expect a transition to northwesterly
winds behind the front, roughly after 10z Saturday.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Across the northern portion
of the airspace, showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front passage overnight.
These storms are expected to bring erratic winds to area
terminals, in addition to the potential for lightning and brief
heavy rainfall. A heavy band of precipitation accompanies the cold
front as it passes through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming
early to mid Saturday morning, yielding VIS/CIG reductions to
MVFR. Winds remain gusty out of the south-southwest for most
terminals through this evening, becoming northwesterly after the
frontal passage early Saturday.

The southern portion of the airspace remains generally dry through
the period, with gusty southwesterly winds through this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty south winds will persist through this
evening across much of the state, in advance of an approaching
storm system which will cross the region tonight through Saturday.
Additionally, scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this
evening through tonight across northern Utah, with frequent
lightning, strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and hail all possible.

A cold front will cross northern and central Utah late tonight
through Saturday morning ushering much cooler air into the state.
Widespread wetting rains and high elevation snow above 8000 feet
is expected across northern and portions of central Utah. Storm
total precipitation of 0.50 to 1.00 inches is expected across much
of northern Utah with lesser totals across central Utah. Little
if any precipitation is expected across the south.

A cool and stable airmass will follow for Sunday, before a
warming and drying trend takes hold for much of next week. Late in
the week it`s looking more likely a surge of tropical moisture
will spread into the region, bringing the potential for widespread
and potentially heavy rainfall heading into next weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ115-122.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ119-126.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Seaman

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