Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
911 FXUS65 KSLC 041012 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 412 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure system will continue to yield unsettled weather through the evening. While a weak system may graze the area late Monday, high pressure is otherwise expected to largely impart a drying and warming trend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A large low pressure system is centered over Arizona this morning, with an ejecting wave from this system currently over northern Utah, producing some very light precipitation. The northern Utah precipitation will diminish later this morning. The low is on track to continue southeastward away from the area today and tonight. Still, enough moisture and instability will linger to combine with daytime heating to produce another round of showers, primarily focused over the higher terrain. Associated higher terrain accumulations will be generally light, but cannot rule out a quick inch or two with a heavier cell. With a relatively cool airmass in place, high temperatures today are expected to run 5-10F below seasonal normals. Behind the exiting low, high pressure will build into the area for the weekend. However, the track of the low will keep an E/NE gradient over Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight into early Saturday morning, resulting in some enhanced gap/canyon winds for prone areas of both the Wasatch Front and lower Washington County. Gradients should not be notably strong, however, and associated cold advection is weak at best, limiting the potential for a downslope wind event of significance. While only a few degrees of warming is anticipated on Saturday, more substantial warming is anticipated in the long term period as high pressure continues to build. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Little changes to the extended forecast with recent guidance, as we remain on track for persistent ridging to dominate the pattern through late next week. Ensemble clusters are in strong support for a high-amplitude ridge currently anchored off the west coast to nudge inland on Sunday. This pattern will support large-scale subsidence across the region, yielding drier and milder conditions on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm back above seasonal averages into early next week, with highs on Monday trending around 10 degrees above average. A weak shortwave trough is slated to brush by to our north late Monday into Tuesday, yielding a slight uptick in PoPs across far northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through this period. Any precipitation accumulation will be light, generally only a few hundredths of an inch. A brief pause in the warming trend is also expected as a result of this passing trough, but high pressure quickly redeveloping over the western US keeps this pause brief. Ensemble clusters show a bit of variability in the strength of high pressure over the region come late next week, but the overall consensus shows a high probability that temperatures remain well above average. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Lake enhanced rain showers are ongoing early this morning in the vicinity of the terminal, resulting in continued mountain obscuration from lowered CIGS. Showers are expected to gradually taper mid-to-late morning, before scattered rain showers redevelop once again this afternoon, roughly between 20-03z. Light northwesterly winds prevail this morning, increasing roughly after 18z with gusts around 20 knots into the evening. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Other than light, lake enhanced showers south of the Great Salt Lake this morning, conditions are expected to remain dry areawide through roughly 18z. Scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage across Utah and southwest Wyoming thereafter, with some isolated thunderstorms possible through 03z. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic outflow winds, and mountain obscuration. Otherwise, light winds this morning are expected to increase out of the north for all regional terminals this afternoon, with winds remaining elevated across southwest Utah into Saturday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity