070
FXUS65 KSLC 062316
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
416 PM MST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A winter storm will continue to impact Utah and
southwest Wyoming through Friday evening. High pressure builds
into the area over the weekend, with active weather resuming early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Saturday)...A winter storm continues
on across Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon and evening.
Key points through the remainder of the storm include:

* Rain transitions to snow across the lower elevation valleys mid-
  evening as the cold front pushes through. Favored areas for
  heaviest snowfall and impactful snow accumulations include the
  Tooele area and Fillmore area. A Winter Weather Advisory has
  been issued for these locations.

* The mountains across Utah will continue to see snowfall through
  the next 24 hours, however, coverage of showers will diminish
  behind the cold front as moisture begins to decrease.

* Increasingly stable conditions build into the region late Friday
  through Saturday morning as surface high pressure intensifies
  alongside warming conditions.

A transition from the warm sector to the cold sector will occur
later this evening as the cold front pushes through the area from
the west and northwest. Along this cold front, an enhanced region
of precipitation is expected, particularly across northern Utah.
Around the same time that this band of precipitation moves into
the Wasatch Front, snow levels are expected to drop down to valley
floors. Recent model guidance has shown a shift in the heaviest
precipitation south and west into Tooele County. Additionally,
wrap around northwesterly flow through Juab and Millard County
will help to bank moisture up on the terrain near the I-15
corridor, leading to increasing concern for heavier snowfall in
the Fillmore area. A vast majority of the anticipated snow
accumulation is expected during the overnight hours and may linger
into the Friday morning commute. Given the forecast snow amounts
in the Tooele Valley and Fillmore area (3-5 inches), have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory from 8PM through 8AM.

Through the day tomorrow, moisture will begin to cut off as
persistent northerly flow spreads into the region and surface high
pressure begins to build into the eastern Great Basin. Model
guidance does not seem to produce much precipitation over the
higher terrain tomorrow, and cuts off showers quite early (by
2-3PM in the northern area). That said, with lingering low level
moisture and strong solar input, thinking that we will still see
snowfall continue in the higher terrain across Utah through much
of the daylight hours. Accumulations will be not as widespread
across the terrain as things will be more convective in nature.
Some areas may end up with very little snowfall, while others may
end up with much more than forecast.

An upper level ridge noses into the region through the overnight
hours Friday into Saturday, helping to intensify surface high
pressure and bring stabilizing conditions throughout. In addition
to intensifying surface high pressure, this ridge will help to
introduce warmer temperatures overhead which will help to warm
conditions moving through Saturday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Saturday)...High pressure will begin to
build across the Great Basin heading into the weekend, with a
persistent warming trend through Monday as 700-mb temperatures
exceed 0C. High temperatures will warm to just above normal by
Monday, in the 50s along the Wasatch Front, upper-40s across the
Wasatch Back, and even reaching the low-70s in St. George.

After this dry period, a closed low moving across the Desert
Southwest could bring light precipitation and slightly cooler
temperatures to the area on Tuesday. However, substantial
uncertainty still remains with the track of the low, which will
impact how far north this precipitation reaches. Models have trended
further south across Arizona, favoring less precipitation across
northern Utah. Either way, precipitation amounts will be fairly
minimal, likely less than 0.25" even in the mountains.

Our attention then turns to a highly amplified trough moving into
the western US during the second half of the work week. While
details are still very unclear at this point, nearly all model
guidance points towards a significant cooldown with the potential
for widespread precipitation. Ensemble mean 700-mb temperatures down
to -12C to -15C by Friday (which would be below the climatological
10th percentile) suggest even the chance for minor valley snow
accumulations. Stay tuned as these details become more clear in the
coming days.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC... MVFR conditions will develop following 0z,
though a few convective showers moving near the terminal could
locally lower ceilings over the next few hours. Snow is expected to
mix in with the rain around 02z, becoming predominately snow by 07z
with IFR ceilings beginning to develop. Snow is expected to end
around 21z tomorrow with ceilings beginning to raise as well.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... Occasional MVFR and IFR
conditions with gusty winds, rain, and snow will continue across all
sites as a large system moves through the area. All sites will
eventually change from -RA to -SN this evening with the exception of
KSGU. Winds are expected to diminish this evening with another
reinvigoration tomorrow afternoon, though winds are expected to be
less robust than today.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Saturday for UTZ102-116.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Friday for UTZ108.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Friday for UTZ109.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for UTZ110>113-117-
     125.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for UTZ121-129>131.

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Friday for WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Webber
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity