Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
340 FXUS65 KSLC 051004 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 404 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Drier air will move into Utah and southwest Wyoming over the weekend with increasingly hot temperatures early next week as high pressure builds. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...After an active day yesterday, drier air is making its way into Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning as southwest flow aloft taps into a dry slot ahead of a low off the Pacific coast. The drying trend will continue through the weekend with high pressure building. High temperatures are expected to run near normal for this time of year both Saturday and Sunday with mostly clear skies. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...By Monday, our region will find itself wedged between a closed low retrograding off the coast of California and an area of high pressure building into the Four Corners region. This pattern will provide a weak moisture push into southern Utah, with PWATs locally as high as 0.6-0.7". While these values are quite meager, efficient daytime heating may provide enough forcing for some isolated thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain across southern Utah on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the forecast area on Monday , with the building high pressure resulting in temperatures climbing back above seasonal averages. A ridge becomes the dominant feature across the western US through at least mid-week, allowing temperatures to continue an upward trend, reaching around 5-8 degrees above normal on Wednesday. Widespread areas of Moderate and locally Major HeatRisk is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensembles are now in a toss-up regarding the pattern from Thursday onward. Recent guidance now suggests the potential for a shortwave trough to flatten the ridge on Thursday, which would result in more zonal flow over the area and thus moderate temperatures closer to normal. At this point, there is considerable uncertainty in this portion of the long range forecast given the wider envelope of scenarios. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Winds remain southeasterly this morning through around 18z, becoming northwesterly thereafter. Clear skies and dry conditions under building high pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Building high pressure over the region will support continued VFR conditions for all regional terminals through the TAF period. Increased southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts 20 to 25 kts across southwest Utah and southwest Wyoming terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will gradually build over the region over the next few days with a low just off the California coast. The resultant southwest flow aloft will tap into a dry slot ahead of the low, bring relative humidity values down across the area through early next week. Temperatures will stay near normal for this time of year over the weekend, becoming increasingly hot early next week as the ridge continues to build. Despite the increasingly dry conditions, winds will remain relatively light, keeping critical fire weather conditions out of the forecast for now. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity