Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
636 FXUS65 KSLC 281045 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 345 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will support mild, dry and stable conditions into Saturday. A weak cutoff low will brush by through the weekend, but provide mainly an increase in clouds. A more substantial system with accumulating mountain snow then remains favored from the early to middle portion of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Sunday)...High pressure and ridging will remain the dominant influence across the forecast region into the weekend. The stable and subsident influence along with warming H7 temperatures will accordingly result in a continuation of dry and mild temperatures, with afternoon highs above seasonal normal. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear at least into Saturday, at which time some limited moisture from an approaching cutoff low will start filtering in through southern Utah. Some development of haze will be possible given the high pressure, especially across sheltered urban areas of the Wasatch Front. From late Saturday evening on into early Sunday morning, the aforementioned closed low will be at its closest as it slips towards the Four Corners region. Moisture will remain limited, and synoptic support overall is fairly meager, so as a result only anticipate a very modest increase in low end precipitation chances across southern Utah. With the further increased cloud cover, morning lows will increase slightly. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Sunday)...Following the departure of an upper low, a longwave trough will begin to move in from the west on Sunday bringing at least some chance for precipitation across the entirety of Utah and southwest Wyoming beginning late Sunday night lasting through Tuesday. Warm temperatures are forecast to continue across the valleys with snow levels generally hovering around 7500ft to kick off the event before gradually dropping down to 6000-6500ft with time, keeping the Salt Lake Valley and other lower elevation valleys as rain through the majority of the event. Some snow is possible along the benches and perhaps down into the valley floors near the end, though accumulations appear somewhat unlikely at this time. Some higher elevation valleys could see some accumulating snow as 700mb temperatures drop to around -6C to -8C late Monday. However, this event will likely be a significant mountain snow event, particularly for our northern mountains. Ensembles are in good agreement that long-duration snowfall will occur across the mountains beginning as early as Sunday evening which will impact commutes through Tuesday. Following this system, chances for more precipitation appear to follow not too far as ensemble guidance appears to be in agreement with another trough moving into the area around midweek. Details are somewhat difficult to iron out at this time, particularly precipitation type for the lower elevations, though this next system appears to be another that could have state-wide impacts. && .AVIATION...KSLC... VFR conditions are forecast to continue at KSLC with light winds out of the south-southeast. Around 18z, winds are forecast to clock to light west-northwest once again before becoming light southerly around 04z beneath clear skies. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... VFR conditions will prevail across all sites for the duration of the TAF period. Generally light winds out of the east-northeast will prevail across all southern sites with light and variable terrain-driven winds across our northern sites. Gusts around 20-25kts may develop at KBCE around 18z today before subsiding around the 00-03z timeframe. && && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Warthen LONG TERM...Worster AVIATION...Worster For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity