664
FXUS65 KSLC 072239
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
339 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving system will bring impacts to the region
through Saturday morning. Drier and cooler air settle in behind this
system and linger into at least early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...The cold front has shifted
through much of the Wasatch Front this afternoon. With the main
area of upper level support shifting east, the cold front is
weakening and has shifted to an area of showers. This area of
showers will gradually shift southward with the weakening boundary
through the evening...diminishing across central and southern
Utah after midnight.

Going wind headlines are on track. Evening shift will monitor for
early cancellation if needed. Winter weather advisories for the
western Uinta Basin are on track as well.

A relatively weak shortwave through will shift through the area
Saturday afternoon, bringing another round of snow showers to
mainly mountain areas Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier, more
stable conditions will build into the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...The end of the weekend will come
with nearly zonal flow. That will bring dry conditions with
temperatures around seasonal normals. Minimal synoptic change will
happen Monday, but a weak shortwave will track into southern
Utah, bringing isolated to scattered showers, primarily mountain
snow showers.

A relatively dry, cold trough will dig into the western U.S. from
the north Monday. It will track into southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, bringing strong
cold air advection and forcing. Most precipitation will be within
the mountains, but with a lack of moisture, accumulations will be
around 1" or less through Wednesday. Temperatures at 700 mb will
drop to around -18C. The coldest conditions of the week will come
behind the boundary, likely Wednesday morning, with valley lows in
the single digits and teens for southwest Wyoming and most of
Utah. Highs Wednesday will be in the 30s for most valleys, around
10F cooler than normal.

Precipitation will taper off Wednesday into Thursday as that
trough exits and shortwave ridging builds in. Models and ensembles
are in good agreement on a longwave trough off the Pacific coast
with an atmospheric river (AR) event into Oregon and California
Wednesday night into Thursday. That AR event will bring
precipitation into Utah Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend,
but there is uncertainty in the track and extent of the moisture
surge. Most EPS and GEFS members bring a southward track, where
the most enhanced moisture avoids most downslope flow off the
Sierra Nevada Mountains and tracks into southern Utah. EPS members
are generally stronger with the surge, but both solutions would
be good for valley rain and mountain snow for southern Utah.
Uncertainty builds northward, as there will likely be less AR
moisture, but still a longwave trough with plenty of forcing and
moisture for precipitation. The warmer nature of the AR event with
a southern track would bring higher snow levels with upslope
orographic enhancement for mountain locations with upslope flow
from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly post-frontal winds prevail
overnight, becoming light and southeasterly around 09z Saturday.
Conditions are expected to remain dry behind the frontal passage
with diminishing clouds overnight, with VFR conditions prevailing
through the remainder of the TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southerly winds
continue for southern Utah terminals through roughly 03-06z
Saturday, becoming light through the remainder of the evening.
Northwesterly post-frontal winds are expected to continue through
this evening, becoming light and terrain-driven overnight.
Precipitation associated with a cold front will continue to spread
southward into central Utah through this afternoon, eventually
diminishing late tonight. Dry conditions are expected to follow
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for UTZ101-102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ112.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for UTZ115-122.

WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ021.

&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson/Whitlam

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