014
FXUS65 KSLC 101012
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
412 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Northwesterly flow will maintain a warm and dry
airmass across the region through Monday. High pressure will then
bring a warming trend heading into midweek. Beginning Wednesday,
an increase in moisture will bring a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A positively tilted
longwave trough resides from the northern PLains back into the
eastern Great Basin, while further upstream an upper ridge is
centered off the Pacific Northwest coast. This is inducing a
general north to northwest flow aloft across the forecast area,
which will remain in place through the short term period. The dry
front which has been making its way through the forecast area over
the past couple of days has finally pushed into the Desert
Southwest. Across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming where cooler and
more stable air became established behind this front, the airmass
will slowly modify over the next couple of days allowing for a
warming trend of 3-5 degrees each day...eventually allowing max
temps to approach climo by Tuesday. Further south, where the
cooler and more stable air struggled to penetrate, temperatures
will run close to persistence through the short term period.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...At the beginning of the long
term portion of the forecast on Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble
solutions are in good agreement with their respective depictions of
a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Western Great
Basin, with the expectation that the ridge will crest overhead on
Wednesday. As a result, expect a continued warming trend through
Wednesday, when temperatures will rebound to 5F-10F above normal for
mid-August, before leveling off and falling slowly through the rest
of the week. There is good consensus among the model solution space
showing another Northern Rockies trough grazing northern Utah late
Wednesday into Thursday. It appears there will be just enough large
scale ascent and meager moisture associated with this trough to aid
in the development of some high-based convection, with the main risk
being gusty/erratic microburst wind and isolated lightning Wednesday
afternoon and evening across most of the area. Prospects for wetting
rains (0.10" or more) appear rather isolated at this time. Outside
of convection, isolated pockets of gusty southwest/west winds of 25-
35 mph look to develop Wednesday afternoon/early evening across SW
Wyoming and wind-prone areas near the Idaho border.

Heading towards the Thursday-Friday timeframe, general model
consensus suggests that a longwave trough will develop over the
western CONUS, aiding in the establishment of broad S-SW flow across
Utah/SW Wyoming during this period. Ensemble PWAT anomalies push
into the slightly above normal range for the time of year in the
late Thursday-Saturday timeframe, suggesting a slight glancing brush
of monsoonal moisture working into the area. It`s too early to say
if this moisture will manifest itself in the form of extensive mid-
level cloudiness with a few showers, or a few organized
thunderstorms capable of localized, briefly heavy rainfall. Ensemble
QPF seems to favor the former at this point, with prospects for
0.10" or more QPF at any location during this timeframe generally
around 10% or less. There are a couple of pockets across southern
Utah, south-central in particular, however, where the prospects of
0.10" of rain approach 50% next Friday. We`ll continue to monitor
these meager, albeit non-zero chances for precipitation as we
approach the mid to late-week period.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Largely variable winds in place this morning in
the face of a northerly pressure gradient. Going forecast maintains
a switch to northerly surface winds at 17Z, but northerly winds
could become established as early as 14-16Z. Drainage (SSE) winds
expected to develop around 04Z this evening. Given the maintenance
of the northerly pressure gradient, periods of variable or even
northerly winds cannot be ruled out late Sunday night into Monday
morning, with the potential for another early northerly switch early
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with gradually thinning
high clouds by this afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected
through the period except in the vicinity of wildfires. Thick canopy
of high clouds across southern Utah will gradually thin throughout
the afternoon. Otherwise, gusty NE canyon winds across SW Utah will
gradually dissipate shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. For the
rest of the area, winds will generally be light and terrain-driven
through the period. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...Northwest flow will reside across the region
today maintaining a warm and dry airmass. Temperatures will trend
several degrees warmer across northern Utah, with little change
across the south. With this dry airmass remaining in place, RH
values will fall below 15 percent across most lower elevations
(below 10% across southern Utah). As this northwest flow mixes to
the surface this afternoon, gusty winds will result in elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions across areas east of
I-15. In particular zone 498 as well as western portions of zones
489, and 494 will see wind gusts near 25 mph at times within a
favorable downslope setup. Winds will trend a little lighter on
Monday while the airmass remains warm and dry.

High pressure will build across the region heading into the
midweek period, resulting in hot and very dry conditions by
Tuesday, with poor overnight recovery Tuesday night. This high
will shift a little east by Wednesday, allowing moisture to begin
spreading into the region, resulting in an increasing chance for
lightning during the latter half of the week. Initially, this
moisture will remain elevated resulting in isolated to potentially
scattered dry thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. These storms
may transition to wet by the end of the week if this moisture can
remain in place.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Seaman/ADeSmet

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