933
FXCA62 TJSJ 190937
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 AM AST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to windy conditions will continue for the next several days
as a strong surface high pressure builds over the central Atlantic.
Quick passing showers embedded in the trades will move at times
across the USVI and eastern sections of PR. Limited shower activity
is expected each afternoon over western PR. Choppy wind- driven seas
will maintain hazardous marine conditions throughout the workweek.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Calm and breezy conditions prevailed during the overnight hours
across the region. Isolated showers were observed across the eastern
and northern portions of the islands, leaving minor accumulations.
Breezy conditions were observed too, with easterly winds at 8 to 14
mph, and higher gusts at times. Minimum temperatures remained in the
low to mid 60s in the mountains and higher elevations, and in the
mid to upper 70s along the coastal areas and lower elevations.

At the mid to upper levels, a building ridge is expected to promote
stability over the islands. Therefore, limiting the potential to
observe strong showers across the region. At the surface, a strong
high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to maintain
breezy easterly trade winds at 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts.
During the next few days, patches of moisture will reach the islands
from the east dragged by the winds. However, no significant rainfall
is expected during this period.

Over the next few days, warmer temperatures will return. The 925 mb
temperatures will remain between normal to above-normal. This trend
is expected to persist until at least next weekend, affecting mostly
the coastal and urban areas of the islands. Therefore, expect highs
to reach the mid to upper 80s and low 90s along the coastal areas
and lower elevations, and from the mid to upper 70s in the mountains
and higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

The mid-to upper-level ridge will continue to support stable
conditions aloft and a strong trade wind cap across the
northeastern Caribbean, as it drifts slowly eastward from the
central to eastern Atlantic by the end of the long-term period.
However, the stronger trades will bring at times the remnants of
old frontal boundaries across the local area. Promoting passing
showers in general across the windward areas of the islands, and
limited afternoon shallow convection over western PR. Global model
guidance suggest a weak upper level-low developing over the
central Caribbean on Thursday, and merging with a stronger upper
level-trough over the western Atlantic during the weekend. This
weather scenario can support better shower development on Thursday
and late in the weekend.

Normal to above normal temperatures will prevail for most of the
long-term period, particularly across the coastal and lower
elevations of the islands. Daytime highs are expected to reach the
mid to upper 80s and low 90s in coastal and urban areas, while the
mountains will experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. Minimum
temperatures will range from the low 60s across the higher
elevations to the mid and upper 70s across the lower elevations of
the islands.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Passing SHRA expected to continue today
across TJSJ/TIST/TISX. E winds expected to continue in general
between 15-20 kts with stronger gusts at times.


&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure building across the western to central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh easterlies for the next several days.
Stronger winds are expected on Tuesday across the Anegada Passage and
Caribbean waters. Choppy wind-driven seas will continue across
portions of most offshore waters and passages. Small craft advisory
conditions are likely to continue through the entire forecast
period.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Fading northerly swell and windy conditions across the region
will continue to promote life-threatening rip currents,
especially along the eastern and northern coasts of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands through today. Thereafter, a moderate
risk of rip currents is expected to persist for the next couple of
days, before winds and seas increase once again the breaking wave
action by midweek along the eastern and northern coastlines.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711-
     723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     AMZ726-742.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ733-741.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM/MARINE...DSR