156
FXUS64 KSJT 081955
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
155 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures and dry weather conditions will continue this
  afternoon, with increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances
  tonight into Thursday morning.

- A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible
  overnight. A mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain, as well as
  rain, is then expected during the day Thursday. A wintry mix is
  expected Thursday night into Friday morning, with with mainly
  snow across the northern half of the area.

- Precipitation chances will quickly end Friday morning, although
 cold temperatures will continue into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025


The messy forecast starting late tonight through Thursday night has
not gotten any easier. Trends continue to come in with generally
more precipitation and overall a little colder as well.

Details wise, high res models start bringing in some light
precipitation across the southwest portions of the area as early as
after midnight tonight, expanding in coverage across all of the area
on Thursday, before eventually ending from west to east Thursday
night into Friday morning. Area soundings show a more pronounced
warm layer between 850-700mb developing which will have an impact on
precipitation type, mostly melting the snow aloft and causing more
of a rain/freezing rain question at the surface for tonight into
Thursday. Will see a very limited diurnal range tonight and
Thursday, but most indications are that temperatures will at least
creep up into the mid 30s and allow for more of a switchover to
rain. Impact wise, even a 31 or 32 degree "freezing rain" doesn`t
always cause significant issues due to the warmer ground
temperatures preventing a quick freeze on surfaces. Or that even on
a cloudy day, sometimes there is enough solar insolation making it
through to cause melting on surfaces even with temperatures below
freezing. The complications with regards on impacts ramps fast in
these marginal situations.

Once the upper level system passes and the winds just above the
surface from the south back to the northwest Thursday Night, cold
advection will start to eat that warm layer aloft away to the point
where a switch to sleet or snow is likely. It will be a rain on how
quickly this happens verse how quick the precipitation ends across
the area.

At this point, will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
a big portion of West Central Texas, with the idea that at least
some patchy areas of ice on roadways are likely, especially across
bridges and overpasses that won`t have warm ground temperatures
below them.

With all of that said, we remain dry at the surface and near ground
level, and wet-bulb cooling will have an affect. Most models show
surfaces temperatures creeping above freezing, but there is a chance
they do not. And most models show that warm nose existing, but there
are a few that show it more easily overcome and a faster switchover
to snow. We will go with an advisory for now and if it needs to be
changed later once the event actually starts, it will be.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Below normal temperatures will continue through the extended
forecast as a series of fronts move through West Central Texas. The
first front will move through Thursday night into Friday morning.
Highs on Friday will be dependent on any snow and/or sleet and
freezing rain accumulations that we receive over the next 36 hours.
Expect highs generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s, but these
could be colder in locations that have snow on the ground. It will
be breezy behind the front, with north winds of 10 to 20 mph, making
for fairly chilly conditions. Frigid temperatures are forecast
Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs on
Saturday will remain below normal, generally in the low to mid 50s,
with overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

The next upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late
Saturday, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas
Sunday morning. This will reinforce the below normal temperatures
with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and overnight lows in the low
to mid 20s. The below normal temperatures will continue into the
first part of next week with highs mainly in the 50s and overnight
lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across the area
through this evening, although a solid mid deck around 5k-7k ft
will continue to spread north across area terminals. Deteriorating
conditions start late tonight and continue past noon on Thursday
as a wintry mix of precipitation develops and spreads north across
the area. Have tried to keep things simple for now at this time
range by just calling it fzra as the predominant type along with
MVFR cigs, but next set of terminals may need to start updating
with a little more precise information once conditions become more
certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     29  35  30  38 /  40  80  30   0
San Angelo  30  36  30  41 /  40  80  30   0
Junction    31  35  30  40 /  40 100  60   0
Brownwood   28  35  30  39 /  40 100  60   0
Sweetwater  29  35  28  39 /  20  60  20   0
Ozona       28  37  30  41 /  40  70  20   0
Brady       29  36  30  36 /  40 100  70   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07