156
FXUS64 KSJT 081849
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
149 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and tonight,
  mainly in the Big Country, with dangerous lightning and
  localized flooding possible.

- Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again
  Wednesday afternoon, mainly in the Hill Country.

- Drier Thursday and Friday, with storm chances returning this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Visible satellite this afternoon shows fields of cumulus clouds
across the Big Country, Concho Valley and Crockett County.
Moisture is still high across the area, but not as high as
previous days, with precipitable water values down to 1.3 to 1.6
inches. However, at the surface, it is still muggy, with
temperatures at 1pm in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the
mid 60s to low 70s creating heat index values in the low to upper
90s. This is creating high instability values, with SB CAPE of
2000-4000 J/KG. However, with no notable boundary or upper level
disturbance to help initiate storms, any shower/storm activity
this afternoon and early afternoon will likely be isolated, with
best chances in the Big Country, Concho Valley and Heartland.
With high amounts of moisture in the area still, any
showers/storms will be capable of producing efficient heavy rain,
and with recent heavy rains, this could produce localized
flooding. Thus, most of our area is in a Marginal risk for flash
flooding today and tonight.

For Tonight...the NAM and NAM-Nest show an mesoscale convective
system moving into the Big Country during the late night hours
tonight, while the HRRR is pretty much completely dry for our
area. Added a low chance (15%) of storms to the forecast for the
Big Country given this small possibility. Otherwise, expect
another mild night with lows in the low 70s.

Wednesday, southerly low level flow will keep the moist air mass
over the region, with precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.7".
A slow westerly moving upper short-wave across South Texas will
combine with the day-time instability and plentiful moisture to
result in isolated to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon,
with locally heavy rainfall possible once again. Highs Wednesday
will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...Rain chances return this weekend...

Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday, as upper ridging
builds in from the west increasing subsidence over the region.
Precipital water amounts (atmospheric moisture) fall back to
around 1 inch.

This weekend, however, an upper trough or weakness develops over
West Central Texas...as the upper ridge weakens over the West,
with a weak broad upper ridge develops over the Southeast US. This
will allow at least isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning
Saturday. At this time, there does not appear to be any organized
storms/weather in the models. However, as precipital water amounts
increase to around 1.5 inches, even isolated storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall. This setup continues into Monday, but by
Tuesday, a building upper ridge over Mississippi Valley ends rain
chances for West Central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

MVFR CIGs around 2000-3000 ft AGL possible between 10Z and 15Z
Wed across the I-10 corridor. Also, isolated SHRA/TSRA possible
between 22Z today and 03Z Wed, which would bring brief IFR/LIFR
conditions in heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through 18Z Wed. Winds will continue to
generally be from the southerly direction at around 8-12 KT,
except between 00Z and 14Z Wed when wind speeds will lower by 3-6
KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  94  73  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  72  93  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    71  90  70  91 /   0  20   0  10
Brownwood   71  89  70  91 /  10  30   0   0
Sweetwater  73  95  74  96 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       71  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       71  88  71  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...SJH