554
FXUS64 KSJT 151103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drought conditions will continue to worsen as well above normal
  temperatures combine with persistent dry conditions.

- A low to moderate (20-40%) fire weather potential will occur
  this weekend.

- Low (<20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend
  mainly across a small area of the Northern Big Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure will continue across the region today. This will
largely result in warm and dry conditions persisting across our
area. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An area of low level clouds is expected to develop down around the
I-10 corridor, but this will dissipate quickly after sunrise.
Otherwise, benign weather will continue today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Generally quiet conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through next week, with ongoing dry conditions and a threat of
fire weather the biggest concerns. The upper level low across the
western US will eventually push northeast into the Northern Plains
and allow a shortwave and associated cold front to move through
West Central Texas this weekend. Models like the GFS continue to
show some isolated convection with the front but many other models
are dry. Latest model blends have lowered POPs and only keep
slight chance POP numbers across the extreme northern Big Country
on Friday night.

Bigger concern will be the post frontal dry air mass and west
winds that move into the area for the weekend. Surface dewpoints
in the 50s and 60s on Friday drop into the 30s and 40s for
Saturday and Sunday, with afternoon RH values dropping below 20%.
Models are keeping winds around the 10 knot range, but given the
weeks without measurable rainfall across the area, even this may
be problematic. Fire weather concerns will need to be monitored
closely.

Weak cold front will only allow for slightly cooler highs on
Sunday but will remain 5-10 degrees above normal. The dry air mass
will allow for better radiational cooling conditions by Sunday
morning with overnight lows dropping well down into the 50s. May
actually see some 40s in some of the usual cold air drainage
locations. Highs bounce right back up into the low to mid 90s for
Monday, running nearly 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Intermittent MVFR conditions may briefly develop across areas near
KSOA and KOZA and westward this morning. These conditions should
be brief in duration. Otherwise, high pressure will keep benign
weather in place with no other aviation concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  61  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  88  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    90  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   88  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  88  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       87  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       87  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41