633
FXUS64 KSJT 161851
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
151 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday, with highs reaching
  into the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Friday night through Sunday
  morning, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

An upper ridge currently situated across the Plains will shift
east tonight, with southwest flow aloft developing in advance of
a digging upper level trough to our west. A strong low level jet
will develop overnight, with low level moisture increasing after
midnight. Low clouds will develop once again over southern
sections towards daybreak, but are expected to scatter out by
late morning or early afternoon. Breezy south to southwest winds
will prevail tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in the low
to mid 60s. Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday, especially
across western sections where the dryline will mix east during
the afternoon hours. Highs will be mainly in the upper 80s and
lower 90s, except behind the dryline where some mid 90s are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Long term remains focused on the potentially active weather
pattern late Friday through Sunday. In general, the overall
forecast reasoning has not changed significantly from the previous
forecast discussion. A longwave trough is forecast to dig into the
Four Corners region on Friday and into the Southern Plains over
the weekend. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase across
west central Texas as southwesterly flow aloft strengthens. Models
continue to show a QPF signal Friday evening into the overnight
hours as a shortwave aloft traverses the region. Showers and
thunderstorms should develop as abundant moisture interacts with
the aforementioned shortwave. We will also continue to monitor the
possibility for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given
abundant deep layer shear and the presence of a dry line and/or a
surface low in the vicinity of our area. Hard to pin point right
now where these surface features will set up or where the highest
instability axis will be so continue to monitor the forecast as we
get closer to Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on
Saturday as the upper low approaches and a cold front sags
southward into our area. Once again we will need to monitor for
the possibility of strong to severe storms along with locally
heavy rainfall. There remains some model uncertainty on the
overall strength/track of the low which will impact rainfall
amounts. Nevertheless, by Sunday afternoon the bulk of the
rainfall should be coming to an end as the trough pushes off to
the east. Sunday will see near normal temperatures in the 70s and
lower 80s before we warm back up into the mid 80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of tonight. Stratus
will develop again across the southern terminals towards
daybreak Thursday, with MVFR ceilings through the mid to late
morning hours. Stratus is expected to scatter out to VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. Expect gusty south winds through this
afternoon, with winds subsiding across the southern terminals by
early evening. Winds will remain elevated overnight at KSJT and
KABI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  92  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  62  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    59  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   60  91  63  89 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  65  94  67  89 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       62  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24