813
FXUS64 KSJT 211108
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
608 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1
  to 3 inches this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts over
  50 mph possible as well.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Early this morning, we remain under northeast flow aloft, where
drier air can be seen moving into the area in the mid and upper
levels. At the surface, a weak boundary moving through the area
today, which should lead to weak northeasterly winds at the
surface tomorrow. While we are expecting to see late morning
through afternoon showers and thunderstorms again today, the
coverage will be noticeably less than the last couple of days, and
be confined to areas south of Interstate 20. With drier air
moving in, storms will likely produce less rainfall as well. Gusty
winds will still be possible with these storms, but as with the
previous few days, most storms will remain sub- severe. Expect any
storms that develop to end by early evening, leaving partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies overnight, with light and variable
winds. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to mid
90s, with lows tonight from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Much of west Texas will remain on the southeast side of an upper-
level ridge over the Four Corners region on Friday as a weak
disturbance rotates around this ridge. One more day of afternoon
popcorn-style showers and thunderstorms is expected for Friday,
mainly for southern counties. High temperatures will continue to
be around normal, or generally in the mid to upper 90s each day.

A pattern change is in store for Saturday and Sunday as models
show a strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada. This will push a drier airmass into Texas with
northerly mid-level winds that will effectively shut off rain
chances for this weekend. Looking further ahead, models are in
overall agreement of this feature elongating and swinging
southward into the eastern and central US by Sunday evening. If
this comes to fruition, it would push a surface cold front and a
strong surface high pressure area through the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday. There is still quite a bit
of spread as to how far south this front will progresses.
Wherever it ends up, there will be at least some potential for
heavy rain and cooler than normal temperatures for Tuesday through
Thursday of next week. The CPC 6- 10 Outlook currently shows a
low to medium chance for below normal temperatures and at least
medium chances for above normal rainfall during this time. For
now, this situation will be monitored closely over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Currently, we have a few SHRA near the KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA, and
will have VCSH at KJCT and KSOA for at least a few hours. Still
expecting to see some isolated SHRA and TSRA later today. However,
the latest high resolution guidance suggests less coverage than
earlier thought, so have removed the Prob30 group from the KSJT
TAF, but will leave it going for KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA for now.
Later forecasts can further refine the sites that may still need
it later today. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become
easterly at 10 knots or less during the afternoon, diminishing
again to light and variable tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  70  94  70 /  10   0  10   0
San Angelo  93  70  93  69 /  20   0  10   0
Junction    92  68  92  67 /  30  20  40  10
Brownwood   94  70  91  68 /  20  10  20   0
Sweetwater  95  70  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       92  69  92  69 /  20  10  20  10
Brady       90  70  90  69 /  30  10  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20