180
FXUS64 KSJT 162359 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
659 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated potential for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon and
  early evening from Brownwood to Brady to Mason and east.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be
  possible in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

SPC has added a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from
Brownwood to Brady to Mason today. While storms are conditional,
the slight risk looks good, as the instabilities in that area have
increased with MUCAPES in the 4000 J/KG range. A cumulus field
was also developing from Junction to Mason. If storms develop,
very large hail of 3 inches+ are possible. Most of this activity
should ending by 7 PM CDT, but carried it over for a few hours
past 7 PM.

A similar situation will exist for Saturday afternoon as a
dryline forms along a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to
Throckmorton line, with very unstable air with dew points in the
lower 70s to the east. SPC again has a slight risk/along and east
of the dryline, Storm activity may be conditional, depending on
breaking the cap, but it develops, very large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

Mild temperatures in mid 60s to lower 70s are expected tonight,
with highs in the mid and upper 90s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

By Saturday night, the dryline and associated thunderstorm
activity should mix back westward, with the potential for
thunderstorms developing along the retreating dryline across
parts of West Central Texas Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. A similar setup will be in place for Sunday afternoon and
evening, with much of the area under a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather and the northern portions of the Big Country under a
Slight Risk. We would not be surprised to see the area of Slight
Risk across the Big Country on Sunday extend further south and
eastward once the high-resolution models can extend out that far
and confirm the low level moisture and dryline position.

For the beginning of the work week, there remains some chances for
another round of showers and thunderstorms mainly over our
eastern-most counties during the day, then spreading west into
the evening and overnight hours before dissipating early Tuesday
morning. Drier conditions will likely return for Tuesday and
persist through the end of next week, with afternoon high
temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s for the first half of next
week increasing into the low to mid 90s by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Expect VFR conditions to prevail overall through the next 24
hours. A few thunderstorms this evening were over far southeastern
parts of west-central Texas, and will not affect any of our TAF
sites. Considerable high cloud coverage will continue over the
area tonight into the day Saturday. May have some patchy low cloud
development between 11Z and 15Z Saturday over our southeastern
counties, and this may potentially affect KJCT and KBBD briefly.
Any lower ceilings would be MVFR. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected Saturday afternoon and evening (20-24Z)
mainly east of a Sonora to San Angelo to Coleman line. Uncertain
with coverage and placement at this time, but have seen enough
indications to include Prob30 groups at KBBD, KJCT and KSOA.
If a thunderstorm directly affects a TAF site, reductions in
ceilings and visibilities could occur, along with a possibility of
gusty winds and hail. Variable winds this evening will become
southeast overnight. On Saturday, winds will be generally from the
south at KBBD and KJCT. For our other TAF sites, expect south to
southwest winds during much of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  68  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
San Angelo  94  67  98  69 /   0   0  20  10
Junction    98  70  99  68 /  20  20  30  10
Brownwood   90  68  96  68 /  20  20  40  20
Sweetwater  93  67  95  69 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       94  70  96  71 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       94  71  97  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19