617
FXUS64 KSJT 121028
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
528 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy conditions expected today, followed by even stronger
  winds on Friday.

- Increased potential for critical fire weather conditions across
  all of West Central Texas today through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The main concerns today will the strong gusty winds and critical
fire weather conditions. An upper level trough will track across the
Southern Plains today, resulting in a tight pressure gradient across
West Central Texas. West winds are expected to quickly increase late
this morning, behind a Pacific front that will race across the
region. Expect winds to increase to 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts.
A Wind Advisory is in effect from noon until 8 PM. Highs today will
be a bit cooler than what we saw yesterday, in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Expect winds to steadily come down this evening. Overnight lows
will a few degrees above seasonal normals, in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the area today, but this is discussed in greater
detail in the fire weather section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...Dry and Very Windy on Friday...

A dry, yet active pattern will continue for late this week and
through the weekend.  Shortwave ridging aloft should move in for
Thursday ahead of the next system that will be moving on to the west
coast.  Surface low pressure will start to develop over the central
High Plains ahead of this system and result in increasing
southwesterly winds by the afternoon.  Going into Friday, the
surface low should quickly deepen as a strong upper-level trough
moves into the Panhandle.  Models show that this system has the
potential to deepen to 975mb which is four standard deviations lower
than the normal for March.  Meanwhile, strong mid-level winds of 80-
100KT and 50KT at 850mb are anticipated. This would translate to 35-
45 MPH winds at the surface with gusts over 50, which would be close
to High Wind Warning criteria. Simply put, this could potentially be
a powerful storm system. In fact, this setup has similarities to the
system that produced high winds and blowing dust on Tuesday of last
week. However, the surface low pressure center will be further north
than last week`s event, so the strongest winds look to occur mainly
across the Big Country. Depending on how much dust gets lofted and
carried eastward out of the Chihuahuan Desert and Permian Basin, the
region could see reduced visibilities due to blowing dust with these
strong winds.

For Saturday, the strong system will move northeastward into the
upper Midwest, while a new area of low pressure develops over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong winds should decrease overall, but
could still be 15-25 mph from the Concho Valley southward.  Winds
should continue to decrease into Sunday with near-normal
temperatures as a surface high builds across Texas.  The dry and
breezy pattern looks to continue for early next week as models show
another system developing over the central Plains.  This time, winds
look to be out of the south to southwest but without much gulf
moisture intrusion, rain chances appear very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Expect VFR conditions to generally prevail through the next 24
hours. West winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots, with higher
gusts, by late morning or early afternoon. Expect winds to
steadily decrease this evening. Blowing dust may result in reduced
visibilities this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon and evening across all of West Central Texas as
minimum RH values drop to 10 to 15 percent and 20 foot west winds
increase to 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts. A Red Flag Warning is
in effect for all of West Central Texas from noon until 9 PM today.
Expect winds to steadily decrease this evening. Elevated fire
weather conditions are then expected on Thursday as minimum RH
values drop to 10 to 15 percent and 20 foot winds increase to 10 to
15 mph.

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
on Friday. Minimum RH values will drop to 5 to 15 percent, while 20
foot west winds increase to 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts. A Red
Flag Warning will likely be needed for all of West Central Texas
Friday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are again
expected on Saturday, especially across the southern half of the
area. Expect elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to
then continue into the first part of next week, as gusty winds
continue to combine with low RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     81  51  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  79  50  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    87  48  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   84  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  79  51  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       79  49  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       84  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-
Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels