503
FXUS64 KSJT 061113
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
613 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect today through 7 PM this evening for
  central, eastern and southeastern parts of the area.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated this
  morning through the afternoon, some with locally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warming and drying trend expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The WV imagery early this morning is showing a slow moving/weak
disturbance just east of the Heartland and drifting west. Also, PW
axis (2 to 2.2 inches) is located along the I-35 corridor over
central and south Texas. Across our area, PW values were greater
than 1.5 inches east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line.
Also, elevated instability(2000 to 3000 J/kg)covered our area.
Current radar trends only showing a few showers at this time.

Conditions( due to tropical thermodynamics/weak flow aloft) are
favorable for another high end impact flash flood event at least
locally today. It may start as early as 09Z across the
Heartland(Brown and San Saba) counties. The weak disturbance will
drift west and combine with moderate to strong elevated
instability this morning to fire a few thunderstorms. The high end
PW values environment will mean rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches
per hour with any thunderstorms mainly across the Heartland this
morning, before 12Z. Again, there is a lot uncertainty on
location of storms and even if they develop, and will watch radar
trends closely.

For this afternoon, more diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
develop mainly south of a Sterling City to Abilene line with
coverage being scattered to numerous, per Hi-Res models. The main
hazards will be flash flooding(low chance of being significant due
to very high rainfall rates), dangerous lightning and possibly a wet
microburst/damaging winds. Will keep the Flood Watch going until
7 PM this evening for the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country,
eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley and Schleicher County. Please
keep up with the latest weather information and have many ways to
receive warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

An upper level high will be centered over the Arizona/New Mexico
border Monday, with our area on its eastern periphery. A weak
disturbance may move around the east side of this system into our
area, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
the moist airmass. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s
with humid conditions.

A few showers and storms will be possible Tuesday, mainly in some of
our far eastern counties. The aforementioned high is forecast to
strengthen midweek with rain chances becoming minimal for our area.
Hotter temperatures are expected as 850 mb thermal ridge gradually
expands east into our area. Increasing parts of our area should have
highs back in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday, with a few upper 90s
in portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Mostly sunny skies
are expected with slow drying of the airmass. Some of the medium
range models show a bit of a retrogression of the high back over the
Desert Southwest, with our area remaining on its eastern periphery.
Not much change is expected in our weather late in the week, with
temperatures within a few degrees of normal and mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Expect a few hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings at most of the terminals
this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late
this morning and afternoon and have PROB30 groups for the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  72  87  72 /  50  10  40  10
San Angelo  87  72  87  71 /  50  10  30   0
Junction    83  71  86  70 /  70  10  30   0
Brownwood   82  71  86  71 /  60  10  40   0
Sweetwater  89  72  89  72 /  30  10  40  10
Ozona       86  71  86  70 /  50  10  20   0
Brady       81  71  84  70 /  70  10  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21