696
FXUS64 KSJT 191146
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
646 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe storms through Saturday night.

- Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
  Saturday night.

- Dry weather expected early next week, with rain chances
  returning by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing early this morning but
everything is now below severe limits. Should see an overall lull
in activity this morning into the early afternoon before our next
round of thunderstorms ramps up by the mid to late afternoon.
Storms will likely fire along the frontal boundary/triple point in
the vicinity of the northern Concho Valley/Big Country. All modes
of severe weather are possible with this activity given CAPE
values over 2000 J/KG and deep layer shear of 60-70 knots. Very
large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter will be likely with
the strongest storms given steep lapse rates aloft and plentiful
CAPE in the hail growth region. Forecast hodographs indicate
splitting supercells will be favored. However, a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out especially with any storm that can latch on to
the surface boundary. The Pacific front is forecast to sweep
across the region tonight. A squall line is likely to develop
along the front bringing an additional round of severe weather
along with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

By Sunday morning, the main upper level low bringing our current
rounds of thunderstorms to west central Texas will be over OK, and
moving off to the northeast. With the trough axis east of our
area, and taking off to the northeast. So, we may have a few
lingering showers or storms in the area through part of the
morning Sunday, but things will be clearing out fairly rapidly
during the day Sunday, with sunny skies over most, if not the
entire, the area by late morning.

Southwest flow will develop behind this low from Sunday through
Monday night, with generally quiet weather. Expect temperatures to
warm from the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday into the mid/upper
80s for Tuesday.

Following those two relatively quiet days, the pattern looks to
become active again for the second half of next week, with a few
more potential rounds of precipitation for west central Texas.
Southwest flow aloft Sunday into the middle of next week will
induce lee troughing/cyclogenesis to our northwest, resulting in
southeasterly low level flow returning Gulf moisture into the
area. Timing and coverage of rain chances is still somewhat
uncertain, but both the ECMWF and GFS indicate several shortwave
disturbances moving through the area during the second half of the
week and into next weekend. Although we`re not expecting
widespread severe weather, it is April, so there will be the
potential for some strong storms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the KJCT terminal over
the next couple of hours and possibly the KBBD terminal as well.
Otherwise, there will be lull in activity later this morning into
the early afternoon. However, another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop by the evening and spread across the
terminals overnight. Some of these storms could be severe, with
the potential for large hail and gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     80  53  73  50 /  80  90  10   0
San Angelo  83  51  76  48 /  60  90  10   0
Junction    84  53  78  48 /  50  80  20   0
Brownwood   81  54  76  48 /  70  80  30   0
Sweetwater  78  52  72  51 /  70  90  10   0
Ozona       83  51  76  50 /  40  80   0   0
Brady       81  55  75  50 /  60  90  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42