973
FXUS64 KSJT 071112
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected this weekend.

- Severe weather threat for at least the Big Country Sunday
  evening and Sunday night.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for much of next week,
  with heavy rainfall possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Area of showers and storms continue early this morning along the
Red River, generally moving east just north of the area. LArger
area of convection across northern Oklahoma and the Texas
Panhandle also continues, and this convection is still expected
to push a more coherent outflow boundary south later this morning
and into West Central Texas.

Aloft, upper level ridge is forecasted to build a little farther
north and west today, with the shortwave helping aid this
mornings convection pushing off to the east. This leads a relative
lull expected for convection later today. CAPE values across West
Central Texas will be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but shear only
25 or 30kts. CAMs have produced some scattered convection on some
runs, but its not terribly consistent. Will mention some isolated
convection across the area where the CAMs show a few storms, but
will keep POPs small. SPC has a marginal risk across about the
northern half of the area north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line,
or roughly where the old outflow boundary is expected to be.
Given the low shear involved, if storms can develop, some pulsey
marginal storms seem the best bet.

Highs on Friday reached the mid 90s, and with the upper ridge a
little closer, a few degrees for today looks good. Highs in the
mid 90 to around 100 expected for this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A warm and fairly active pattern is expected to continue for west
central Texas for at least the first half of next week.  At the mid
to upper-levels, a 594 dam ridge will be in place across northern
Mexico.  The axis of the ridge will be located over west Texas on
Sunday with 850mb temperatures around 24 deg C.  Similar to
Saturday, this would translate to high temperatures at the surface
in the upper 90s to around 100 on Sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile an
upper-level low looks to dig southward through the upper-Midwest on
Monday and Tuesday.  This setup would place west central Texas in a
west-northwest flow pattern as multiple shortwave impulses rotate
around the upper low over the Midwest.  In the low-levels, southeast
flow should consistently advect gulf moisture into west Texas, with
dewpoints in the 60s. A series of southward-moving frontal
boundaries should drop into the region and/or stall Sunday night
through Tuesday. This should result in multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorm chances for the start of next week. In fact, SPC
already has an Enhanced Risk for late Sunday night along the leading
edge of the frontal boundary. Indications are that this could
produce an intense southward-moving line of thunderstorms with
damaging winds and large hail as it moves into the Big Country.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms look to continue  for Monday
night and Tuesday night as a second front drops into the region.

For the latter half of next week the upper-level flow will change a
bit as a shortwave trough passes through the southern Plains.
Assuming this comes to fruition, this should give west central
Texas, particularly the northwest Hill Country, chances for heavy
rainfall.  Given the fact that our region has seen multiple rounds
of rainfall and more are expected for the first part of next week,
the threat for flooding will likely increase for Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Low cloud imagery is showing patchy low clouds across portions of
the Big Country near KABI and across the southern terminals. These
should be short-lived with VFR conditions by mid morning. CAMs
continue to show the possibility of isolated showers and storms
across the area late this afternoon into the early evening hours,
but models are not consistent in where or when. Given this
uncertainty will not include in the forecast quite yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  74  99  69 /   0  20  10  40
San Angelo  98  73 100  71 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    96  70  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   95  73  97  70 /   0   0   0  30
Sweetwater  98  74 101  68 /   0  20  10  30
Ozona       96  71  98  72 /   0  10   0   0
Brady       94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07