132
FXUS64 KSJT 040504
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday morning, mainly
  across our eastern counties. A few strong to severe storms are
  possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of the
Big Country and the Concho Valley late tonight...

The showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Big Country
earlier today have weakened and diminished in coverage this
afternoon. An outflow boundary is draped across the Concho Valley
and the Heartland this afternoon but not much in the way of
convection has developed along that boundary. May see some
isolated storms develop across portions of the Heartland this
afternoon where equivalent potential temperatures are higher.

The potential for thunderstorms to develop and move into west
central Texas tonight exists as the combination of a low level jet
at 850mb across west Texas and the Texas panhandle, the right
front quadrant of an upper level jet at 300mb across the Texas
panhandle, and a strong mid level jet at 500mb across the Texas
panhandle and western Oklahoma should provide enough support for
thunderstorms to develop across northwest Texas this evening and
move southeast into west central Texas late tonight. SPC currently
has a slight risk for the western portions of the Big Country and
the northern portions of the Concho Valley for tonight into early
Monday morning. There is a low chance (15 to 29 percent) of
damaging winds and a low chance (5 to 14 percent) of large hail in
the slight risk area. There is a marginal risk of severe weather
across the remainder of the Concho Valley, the Big Country and
portions of the Heartland for tonight into early Mon morning. With
strong to severe thunderstorms developing tonight into early
Monday morning...the potential for heavy rain is likely with these
storms. WPC currently has most of the CWA in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (flash flooding) for tonight into Mon morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorm chances are low, Monday night into
Saturday, as upper ridging in the Southwest expands eastward.

That said, can`t rule out an isolated evening thunderstorms Monday
night. A few showers/thunderstorm may still be dissipating Monday
evening in the NW Hill country. Also, with northerly flow aloft, the
HRRR model does develop yet another a storm complex that moves
southeast into the Big Country late Monday night. At this point,
however, will keep rain chances out, as most models are dry.

The main concern will be increasing temperatures this week, with
highs returning back to 100 to 103 range Tuesday into Saturday, in
the Big Country and N. Concho Valley. Heat indices will be near or
perhaps a degree above temperatures, so will have to monitor for
possible heat advisories later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Patchy fog may result in brief reductions in visibilities at KJCT,
otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites.
Thunderstorms currently across Oklahoma are forecast to move south
this morning, but remain east of the TAF sites. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, but
confidence is too low to include in the current TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  72  95  71 /  10  20  10   0
San Angelo  99  73  99  71 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    97  72  97  70 /   0   0  20  10
Brownwood   95  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  10
Sweetwater 100  72  97  72 /  10  20  10   0
Ozona       97  73  99  71 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       94  72  94  71 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels