210
FXUS64 KSJT 280558
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hotter today with temperatures across the Big Country around the
  100 degree mark.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening
  as a cold front moves into the area.

- Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the
  weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

South to southwest winds and a little downslope flow will help
push temperatures up a few degrees across the area today with
readings across the Big Country at or a few degrees above the 100
degree mark. Upper 90s are likely elsewhere.

To the north a cold front will slide southeast across the
Panhandle and Oklahoma this afternoon, with the CAMs showing the
convection developing along the boundary across the northwest Big
Country right around sunset. This convection likely to slide
southeast towards the I-20 area from Sweetwater to Abilene to
Baird during the evening hours before dissipating by around
midnight. Given the high temperatures an decent T/Td spread this
evening, strong winds likely to be the biggest concern with these
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The upper ridge begins to weaken on Friday as a longwave trough
deepens across the eastern CONUS. A cold front is forecast to
move into the Big Country in the afternoon before stalling out
somewhere in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor (or the northern
Concho Valley per the NAM). Highs will be in the low to mid 90s in
the Big Country, with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the
forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the afternoon along/near the stalled front.

The upper ridge further breaks down and retrogrades to the west
over the weekend. With the aforementioned cold front dropping
further south into our area and shortwave disturbances aloft
moving overhead, there will be the possibility of multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Highest rain
chances (50-70%) will likely be in the Saturday night/Sunday time
frame when models show a stronger shortwave moving through. This
will be the time period with the greatest concern for locally
heavy rainfall and flashing flooding. Additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are possible into Monday as weak shortwave
energy moves overhead. PoPs gradually diminish by Tuesday and
Wednesday, with just a slight chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperatures will trend much
cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with highs only in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Scattered showers and storms that lingered into the evening hours
have now dissipated, leaving just some mid and high clouds across
the area. This will general hold true across West Central Texas
terminals through the afternoon hours. Latest CAMs do show another
round of convection possible this evening spreading into the Big
Country near KABI and have inserted a PROB30 into the forecast for
that location. Winds will swing a little more to the south and
southwest today and will again see a few higher gusts around 20
knots at times during daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  74  94  71 /  10  30  20  30
San Angelo  98  74  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
Junction    97  72  98  71 /   0   0  20  20
Brownwood   98  73  95  70 /   0  20  40  30
Sweetwater 100  73  95  71 /  10  20  20  30
Ozona       96  72  97  72 /   0   0  20  20
Brady       96  73  95  72 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07