364
FXUS64 KSJT 181118
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
618 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly hot and dry today, with only isolated showers and storms
  possible north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Isolated to
  widely scattered storms possible Monday, with better rain
  chances Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

We remain under general ridging, but with the weakening remnants
of a tropical disturbance in the area, along with plentiful
moisture. High resolution models are targeting the Big Country
area this afternoon, but considering how much models
underestimated coverage yesterday, will have a Slight Chance for
showers and thunderstorms across most of the area this afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal with highs
again in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Expect most of the
convection to diminish by early evening, but a few storms could
linger into the evening hours similar to what occurred last night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

An unsettled pattern will be in store for much of this week, with
rain chances remaining in the forecast through this weekend and
increasing chances Wednesday through Friday specifically. The
upper-level high will shift westward and remain over the four
corners region through this weekend, making way for a series of
upper-level disturbances to traverse the area on the eastern
periphery of the upper-level high and over West Central Texas.
These disturbances along with a continued influx of tropical
moisture from the south to southeast will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening.

Rain chances and potential rain coverage will increase starting
Tuesday afternoon as the upper-level high gets setup to our west
and a front moves south into the area on Wednesday into Thursday.
The main concern remains the potential for heavy rainfall along
the front mid-to-late next week. Rain chances will decrease
slightly after the front moves through, with the highest chances
staying in our southeastern counties. We`ll get a better idea on
potential locations of the heavier rainfall as we get closer and
high res models become available. Temperatures will remain near
normal for this time of year (in the 90s) with a slight drop in
temperature behind the front resulting in highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s. We`ll get a better idea on potential locations of the
heavier rainfall as we get closer and high-res models become
available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions with south winds 5 to 10 knots are currently in
place at all sites. Expect to see VFR conditions persist through
the next 24 hours at most sites. There is a chance for isolated to
scattered SHRA and TSRA again this afternoon and evening, but the
best chance for any of this activity to impact a particular site
is at KABI, so have added a PROB30 at that site this afternoon.
Otherwise, winds are expected to shift to a more southeasterly
direction late this afternoon and evening, maintaining speeds
around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  75  98  74 /  30  20  30  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  72 /  20  10  40  20
Junction    98  71  98  70 /  10  10  50  20
Brownwood   97  74  98  73 /  20  10  30  10
Sweetwater  99  75  98  73 /  30  20  30  20
Ozona       97  72  96  70 /  10  10  50  20
Brady       95  73  96  72 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20