482
FXUS64 KSJT 010725
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
125 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Below-freezing temperatures expected for Monday night.

-  Another cold front will move through the area on Wednesday
   knocking highs back down into the 40s on Thursday.

-  Medium chance (30-50%) for scattered showers on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Early this morning, west central Texas remained entrenched in a
cold airmass with temperatures stuck in the mid to upper 30s. A
stratus deck persisted underneath a stout inversion as
southwesterly 850mb flow brought in a steady feed of moisture.
This setup should continue through most of the morning. By early
afternoon an upper-level trough axis will pass to the east and
shift the 850mb winds out of the northwest. This will allow drier
air to be advected in at the low levels which, along with decent
thermal mixing, should help clouds to break up from west to east.
Given the return of sunshine, high temperatures should climb to
the mid to upper 50s across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau,
which will see the most amount of sun. Areas further north and
east may only reach the low 50s, depending on how quickly the
cloud cover clears. Overnight, surface high pressure will move in
from the north. Winds will be light and, with the absence of cloud
cover, low temperatures should easily drop below freezing. In
fact, most areas will fall to the upper 20s while some low-lying
spots could fall to the low 20s. There are no plans for a Freeze
Warning because the entire area has already experienced a
widespread freeze.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Despite a cold start Tuesday morning, with a return to sunny skies
and southerly winds, temperatures warm to highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Another cold front moves into the Big Country Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the rest of West Central Texas. This, for the
most part, will be after maximum heating along and south of I-20.
North of I-20, highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s, with
upper 60s to lower 70s south.

An upper trough moving in from the 4-corners region Wednesday
weakens as it move east Thursday. It does, however, bring lift and
moisture over the front Thursday, along with a chance for showers.
However, rainfall amounts look on the lighter side. In fact, on the
deterministic GFS there is only a few hundredths inch of rain, with
areas from Junction to San Saba around 1/10 inch. Over all, the
trend for the last model runs has been for lower rainfall
amounts. Cold advection with the front and cloudy skies will keep
Thursday on the cold side, with the Big Country only reaching the
upper 30s to 40 degrees. Areas along I-10 may only warm into the
mid 40s.

Dry northwest flow aloft will bring clearing skies late Friday into
Saturday. This along with southwest winds at the surface, will allow
a warm up back to near 60 degrees Friday, and mid and upper 60s
Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front late Sunday will bring
slightly cooler conditions Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Generally VFR ceilings in place across the entire are currently.
As temperatures cool, and low level flow turns a little more
southeasterly bringing in some moisture, expect ceilings to fall
into the MVFR range between now and 06Z for our southern four
sites, with KABI eventually seeing those lower ceilings after 06Z.
Ceilings will rise back into the VFR range from west to east
beginning around 15Z at KSOA and KSJT, eventually getting to KABI
and KBBD by 20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     52  28  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  60  28  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    62  28  63  40 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   52  26  58  39 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  54  28  61  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       62  30  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       56  29  58  42 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20