679
FXUS64 KSJT 041127
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms ending by around sunrise.

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected again on Friday night and
  Saturday morning. Some of these may also reach severe levels. In
  addition, some of these storms may cause flooding.

- A brief light freeze may be possible both Sunday and Monday
  mornings in low lying and protected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the Big
Country, south into western parts of the Concho Valley, and
Northern Edwards Plateau. These storms are expected to continue
through most of the overnight hours through 5 or 6 AM this
morning. In their wake, mostly cloudy skies, along with a few
showers into the late morning hours. With the cold frontal
boundary stalled south of our area, cloudy skies, and northerly
winds, we will see cooler than normal temperatures, with highs
ranging from the upper 50s north of I-20, to the mid 70s along and
south of I-10.

For Friday night, we are again expecting another round of
thunderstorms to affect much of the area. The large upper level
low currently in western AZ will continue to move east into
southern NM by Friday night, with yet another shortwave impulse
rounding the base of the trough and towards west Texas. Similar to
the last two night, these storms are expected to develop after 10
PM, affecting the area through much of the overnight hours.
Generous deep layer shear of greater than 50 knots will be
available for eastern parts of our area, along with plenty of low
level moisture. So, we will once again have the potential for some
of these storms to become severe, with the main concern being
large hail, along with damaging winds. In addition, due to the
area being affected by multiple rounds of storms over the last
couple days, there will also be a risk of localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The upper-level trough that is responsible for the ongoing active
weather will continue it`s march eastward on Saturday. The
frontal boundary should remain in place across south-central Texas
with our forecast area firmly entrenched on the cool side with
northerly winds. Persistent southwest flow aloft from the upper
low will lead to additional rain chances in the morning, then
again by late afternoon. However, PWAT values will decrease
through the day, falling to around 0.5 inches so rainfall amounts
will be much lighter. A much cooler airmass in place with cloudy
skies and saturated low levels will lead to much lower than normal
temperatures on Saturday. Temperatures will likely have a flat-
line to even a slowly falling trend from the mid 50s to upper 40s.
The upper-level low will pass over the Big Country Saturday night
and provide one more opportunity for light rain showers before it
moves east. The upper-level low will move eastward late Saturday
night into Sunday morning and allow a drier airmass to move in at
the low levels. While temperatures will remain cooler than normal
across west central Texas on Sunday, at least the sunshine will
return and allow for a nice afternoon, despite any potentially
muddy conditions from the rain. Temperatures Sunday night could be
near-freezing with ideal radiational cooling conditions
anticipated.

As we get into early next week, temperatures should recover
fairly quickly to near normal on Monday as upper-level ridging
sets in across Texas. Southerly return flow should set up on
Tuesday and allow for temperatures to climb above normal again.
Generally ridging to quasi-zonal aloft should persist for the
upcoming week. This should result in dry conditions with above-
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread IFR to occasional LIFR ceilings should persist through
much of the morning with some improvement above 1000ft this
afternoon. Regardless, ceilings should fall back to IFR levels
after sunset with another round of thunderstorms possible
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  47  53  34 /  70  90  80  60
San Angelo  65  49  56  34 /  40  90  80  30
Junction    72  51  62  34 /  40  90  40  10
Brownwood   61  49  57  34 /  60 100  50  40
Sweetwater  60  45  51  34 /  70  90  90  50
Ozona       70  50  58  34 /  30  90  70  20
Brady       68  52  57  35 /  50  90  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...SK