039
FXUS64 KSJT 192308
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
608 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above-normal temperatures and very moist conditions are present this
afternoon. South/southeast winds are bringing Gulf moisture into the
area, putting dewpoints into the 60s to low 70s. This moisture
combined with the warm temperatures, are putting heat index values
above 100 degrees in some areas. These very high dewpoints will also
keep overnight temperatures high, with forecast lows near record
warm lows for both San Angelo (forecast:73 Record:76) and Abilene
(forecast:75 Record:75). Tomorrow`s weather will be very similar to
today, with warm and muggy conditions in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue on
Saturday, as the upper ridge remains over the area. A pattern
change will occur beginning Sunday, as the ridge breaks down
ahead of a shortwave trough that will lift northeast across the
southern Rockies Saturday night and into the central Plains by
Sunday night. Associated weak cold is expected to affect the area
Sunday night and early Monday, with rain chances increasing
across the area. Carrying a low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Still a rather uncertain
forecast by mid week, as models differ regarding the timing and
eventual evolution of another upper level trough to our west. Due
to the uncertainty, will maintain NBM low to medium rain chances
for Tuesday and Wednesday, with dry conditions for Thursday.
Temperatures will be cooler as we head into next week, with highs
mainly in the 80s and overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Winds will be weaker overnight from the southeast. Low clouds
will start to move in from the south early tomorrow morning, with
MVFR CIGs expected at KJCT, KSJT, and possibly KBBD. IFR CIGs
will be possible at KSOA. Ceilings should start to lift around
16-17Z leaving VFR conditions and gusty winds for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  97  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    95  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  72  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  97  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       93  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...AP