429
FXUS64 KSJT 111812
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
112 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as hot this week with a chance of isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed just from the
western low rolling plains into the Big Country early this
afternoon. High resolution models generally dissipate this
convection before sunset, but have updated the afternoon forecast
to include at least a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms
north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. Although we`re not
expecting widespread severe weather, there is plenty of
instability available for these storms, so a few could briefly
approach severe levels.

Later tonight, high resolution models continue to bring a cluster
of thunderstorms southeast into the area after midnight. How far
south these storms will make it is the main question. The best
chance for rain from these storms will be in the Big Country. With
precipitable water values in the 1 to 2 inch range, heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be a concern, along with a lesser
concern for gusty winds approaching 60 mph, and large hail. Expect
there to be a lull in convection mainly during the mid and late
morning hours. By tomorrow afternoon, the atmosphere will be able
to recover, and there should be outflow boundaries laying around
from the morning convection that new convection will be able to
develop off of. Therefore, will have generally 30% chances for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across most of the area, although
not all locations will see precipitation. Once again, the main
concern will be locally heavy rainfall, with a lesser chance for a
few of the storms to approach severe levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, an upper level ridge will remain
centered across the the Desert Southwest, with a weak upper level
trough across the Great Plains. A weak cold front will likely be
stalled somewhere across the forecast area. At least isolated
showers and thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday evening, but
placement will dependent on how far south convection overnight
progresses. The current thinking is that the outflow boundary/cold
front associated with the convection overnight will stall across
southern portions of the area, and this placement would keep the
higher rain chances across the southern half of the area. On
Wednesday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
again be possible, especially near the remnant boundary. Highs
will be slightly below normal, in the low to mid 90s for most
locations.

On Thursday, the upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest
will weaken, while an upper level ridge near Florida strengthens
and begins to shift west. This feature will slowly build toward
Texas through the weekend, resulting in slowly increasing
temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Highs through the period
will generally remain in the 90s, but a few locations (especially
across the Big Country) could approach 100 degrees by the end of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Mainly VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours.
However, there is a chance for TSRA to affect KABI, mainly after
06Z tonight. There are a few isolated SHRA to the west of KABI at
this time, but expect these to remain clear of the site through
this afternoon. Winds will be east/southeast through this evening,
with winds becoming light and north, or variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  93  73  95 /  20  40  20  30
San Angelo  72  94  72  94 /  10  30  30  40
Junction    71  95  70  95 /   0  30  10  40
Brownwood   72  93  72  94 /  10  40  20  40
Sweetwater  71  94  73  96 /  20  30  20  30
Ozona       72  93  71  95 /  10  30  20  30
Brady       72  93  72  93 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20