097
FXUS64 KSJT 261930
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances today, with lower chances Sunday.

- Storms could be strong to severe, mainly Monday and Monday night
  and again Tuesday and Tuesday Night, with large hail, damaging
  winds and isolated tornadoes possible.

- There is also potential for flash flooding for any areas that
  receive repeated rounds of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

As of 2:15 PM, radar imagery across the Big Country showed a
weakening area of rain showers and thunderstorms across northern
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Radar trends indicate that this
activity will likely fizzle and remain well to the north.
However, both the NAMNEST and HRRR models are indicating another
round of thunderstorms to potentially develop off to the northwest
and move southeast across the Concho Valley late this afternoon
into the evening. However, chances will generally remain in the
30-40% range given the lack of coverage. It`s worth noting that we
are included in a Marginal Risk (5% chance) of severe weather for
the remainder of today and tonight. An isolated severe storm
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot be
completely ruled out. Should this activity develop a bit further
north than expected, recent rainfall across the northern Big
Country could have left fairly saturated soil conditions favorable
for potential flash flooding in place. The highest risk for this
will be across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, where a Flood
Watch will remain in effect. There is Slight Risk (15-40% chance)
of seeing excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding per the
Weather Prediction Center. Otherwise, tomorrow (Sunday) is looking
relatively quiet as most of the convection will remain off to the
west and northwest of our area for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Main upper level trough will remain across the Southwest US into
Monday, with another shortwave expected to move northeast across
the Southern Plains. Dryline will sharpen up off to the west, with
convection likely to develop and spread northeast into West
Central Texas in the afternoon and evening hours as the low level
jet ramps up. SPC has portions of the area outlooked in DAY3
already and see nothing to argue wit this thinking. Best chances
for rain probably across the Concho Valley and Big Country, closer
to where the convection may develop. Storms possible farther east
as well but will need to see how convection/associated outflow
may move to get down there.

Best chance for storms will come Tuesday into Wednesday as the
main upper trough moves into the area. Plenty of moisture and
instability in place ahead of it so convection will develop once
again during the afternoon hours. Low level jet even stronger and
increases near 60kts Tuesday evening, aiding the spread of
convection into West Central Texas perhaps past sunrise Wednesday
morning. Again, SPC has much of the area outlooked in a DAY4 area
and this looks completely reasonable. Will need to watch a heavy
rain threat as well, especially for areas that end up seeing the
heavier rainfall Monday Night.

After another brief lull as the trough passes on Thursday and
some upper level ridging builds into place, the pattern reloads
for the weekend. Upper level trough will settle into the Southwest
US and the dryline will start start sloshing back and forth
across the area. Models struggle with shortwave timing that far
out and not going to worry about details at that range, but the
pattern and that fact that it will be the start of May suggests
severe threat to continue.

Not much to say about temperatures with lows generally in the 60s
and highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Current radar imagery (as of 1702z) shows a broad area of rain
showers and thunderstorms north of KABI near Haskell and
Throckmorton. This activity will slowly work south over the next
several hours. There is a low chance (30-40%) that this will
affect the KABI terminal before dissipating. It remains a bit
uncertain how far south this activity will go, however. Otherwise,
MVFR ceilings and gusty winds will redevelop overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  88  68  87 /  30   0  10  10
San Angelo  63  90  67  88 /  20   0   0  10
Junction    62  90  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   62  88  66  87 /  30   0   0  10
Sweetwater  65  88  68  87 /  40   0  10  20
Ozona       64  87  66  87 /  10   0  10  10
Brady       63  88  66  87 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41