220
FXUS64 KSJT 070850
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
250 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this evening into the
    overnight hours along west of an Abilene to San Angelo to
    Sonora line, with a marginal risk across the rest of West
    Central Texas

  - Rain chances return Thursday morning through Friday night.
    Localized flooding possible Thursday night into Friday and a
    Flood Watch is in effect for the Big Country and western
    Concho Valley.

  - Cooler through Saturday, then warmer and dry Monday into
    Tuesday before the approach of the next cold front on
    Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall are
possible across much of West Central Texas through the next 24
hours. A potent upper level low across Arizona will track across New
Mexico this afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of this
system, moisture will quickly increase across West Central Texas. As
moisture advect into the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across the area by mid to late morning, with
an increase in coverage this afternoon. This convection is forecast
to generally remain below severe levels, but locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm.

This evening, the aforementioned upper level will move closer to the
forecast area, with large scale lift resulting in numerous showers
and thunderstorms, especially across our western counties. CAMs
are in fairly good agreement that a corridor of showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will develop from the
western Big Country south toward the western Concho Valley and
possibly as far south as Crockett County. A weak cold front moving
west across the area will also be a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development. The first concern will the possibility
of strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly across our western
counties. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns,
although a tornado is also possible. The next concern is
potential for heavy rainfall as precipitable water values increase
to 1.5 inches or higher across much of the area. Fairly
widespread amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely, with some amounts
over 4 inches possible. Decided to issue a Flood Watch for the Big
Country and western Concho Valley from 6 PM Thursday until 3 PM
Friday. The highest confidence is across the Big Country where the
heaviest rainfall has occurred over the last week, but rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible farther south, so went ahead
and included the western Concho Valley as well. Depending on the
latest trends later today, the watch may need to be extended
farther south and east.

Extensive cloud cover and possible showers and thunderstorms today
should keep temperatures several degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. Expect highs in the mid 60s north to the mid 70s across
the I-10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

The upper-level trough and associated upper-level low off to our
west will track northeastward across portions of West Texas,
providing enough lift for the severe weather risk to proceed into
Friday afternoon. A surface trough/Pacific front will also
continue to progress eastward across West Central Texas late
through Friday afternoon. Therefor much of West Central Texas
remains under a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms through
Friday afternoon. The main impacts will be damaging winds, large
hail, localized heavy rainfall, and the slight possibility of a
brief tornado or two. Given the higher rainfall amounts and
increased potential for flooding into Friday, the Flood Watch
issued today will carry into early Friday afternoon for parts of
the Concho Valley and the Big Country.

Warm and drier conditions will return for the first half of next
week through Tuesday, with high temperatures warming back up into
the mid 70s to mid 80s. A stronger cold front moves through
Wednesday, with a few showers possible in the eastern Big Country
south to Brownwood and San Saba.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Latest hi resolution data continues the trend from precious runs,
showing deteriorating conditions during the day on Thursday as
showers and a few storms develop and become more widespread. More
widespread heavier thunderstorms likely to develop near KABI and
KSJT by mid evening and continue through midnight. Low cloud
satellite showing some low clouds already developing across the
Hill Country with more widespread MVFR cigs to spread northwest
across West Central Texas terminals by sunrise, eventually
dropping to IFR across the northern and central terminals for the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  61  68  43 /  70  90 100  30
San Angelo  71  58  69  43 /  60  90  90  20
Junction    75  62  73  47 /  60  60  90  30
Brownwood   68  63  70  45 /  70  70  90  40
Sweetwater  65  59  68  44 /  70  90  90  20
Ozona       74  55  68  43 /  50  90  80  10
Brady       70  63  70  46 /  70  70  90  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
Callahan-Coke-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07