602
FXUS64 KSJT 142307
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
607 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions will persist through the work week,
  with above normal temperatures continuing.

- Low (<20%) chances for rain this weekend, mainly in the
  northwest Hill Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Expect warm and dry conditions during the next 24 hours as a
strong upper level ridge continues to the dominate our weather.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs Wednesday in the
mid 80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be 55 to 65.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper level ridge over the area will begin to weaken and move
off the east late Wednesday, eventually getting replaced by upper
troughing Friday into the weekend. The large upper low currently
over the West Coast, will move northeast over the northern U.S.
and Canada. This will put northwest flow aloft over our area. The
GFS is showing a potent shortwave ejecting south from the low
towards our area. This solution would bring us better rain
chances, however the European is not in agreement on the
shortwave developing. At the surface a cold front will move
through the area late Friday into late Saturday. Convergence along
the front, along with upper level lift will provide low end rain
chances (<20%) for Saturday. Behind the front, dew points will
decrease significantly, lowering RH values. Winds around 10 to 15
mph combined with the dry conditions could lead to elevated fire
weather conditions Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Will add a broken 3500 ft ceiling to KSOA early/mid morning, as
VFR stratus along the Lower Rio Grande/Southcentral Texas advects
northwest. Could see ceiling temporarily fall to MVFR, but better
potential will be west of KSOA. VFR otherwise across the terminals
with southeast wind generally less than 10 KTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  57  89  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    56  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   58  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  89  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       59  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       58  87  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04