827
FXUS64 KSJT 150352
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
952 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and flooding
    possible mainly Sunday night into early Monday morning, but
    could be as early as Sunday afternoon.

 -  Strong, gusty west winds possible during the day Monday.

 -  First freeze of the season possible in the middle to latter
    part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Surface high pressure, centered just east of our area early this
afternoon, will move northeast to the Missouri/Arkansas border by
late tonight. A surface ridge axis will extend southwest into
central Texas tonight. Skies will be clear tonight. Overnight lows
will be mostly in the mid 40s in much of the Big Country, where
south winds will be 5-10 mph. One more night of good radiational
cooling is expected for Heartland and Northwest Hill Country
counties, where winds will stay light in closer proximity to the
receding surface ridge axis. Going mostly with upper 30s to lower
40s for lows in that area, with mid to upper 30s in a few low-
lying areas. Elsewhere in the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau, have lows in the lower 40s.

A warming trend will begin on Friday. South winds will increase
in the morning and become breezy by afternoon. This to occur as a
large upper trough overspreads the western CONUS, with an
increased pressure gradient as lee surface trough develops to our
west. With sunny skies, highs on Friday will be in the mid to
upper 70s for most of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

With the aforementioned western CONUS upper trough, the northern
portion will move east across the northern Plains Saturday, and
into the upper Midwest Saturday night. A closed low will develop
within the southern portion, with the low moving southeast over
the northern Baja region by early Sunday morning. Breezy south
winds will continue on Saturday, and cloud cover will increase
with with an influx of low-level moisture. The warming trend will
continue, and lows by Sunday morning will be well-above normal in
the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

The upper low is forecast to lift northeast across far northern
Mexico to southeastern New Mexico by early Monday morning. The low
is then forecast to more rapidly northeast and be over Kansas by
Monday evening. Temperatures Sunday will be warm with highs in the
70s to around 80, and south winds will continue with an influx of
low-level moisture.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening south of I-20, with increased coverage
possible farther north in the Big Country. The main focus for
convection will be Sunday night and early Monday morning with the
approach of the upper low, and with a pacific front forecast to
move quickly east across the area overnight. With a strong low-
level jet, favorable vertical shear profiles and enough
instability, severe storms will be possible. The setup favors the
possibility of a QLCS to move quickly east across our area,
generally in the Midnight to 8 AM Monday time frame. Precipitable
water values are forecast to increase to 1.5 to 1.7 inches, and
this is near the climatological maximum for this time of year.
Heavy rainfall and flooding could also be a concern with the
storms. The higher concerns for flooding may be across the Big
Country, where higher coverage of storms is expected Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night with a possibility for some repeat
convection.

On Monday the main concern will be with winds. In the wake of the
Pacific frontal passage, will have a deepening surface low to our
north (associated with the upper system) and a tight pressure
gradient. Rather windy west (or west-southwest) winds are expected
across our area in the morning and into the afternoon hours.
Favorably aligned stronger winds aloft and downward momentum
transfer will also be a factor. Winds could be at Advisory levels
in the Big Country and possibly south into the Concho Valley.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday with mostly sunny skies, and
winds will subside in the evening.

A deep upper low and trough are progged to develop somewhere over
the central CONUS Tuesday through midweek. The details of the
pattern evolution are uncertain at this time, however. This setup
is progged to drive a strong cold front south across our area on
Tuesday. This setup will the potential to bring our area the
coolest/coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season. The
latest forecast has highs in the 50s to around 60 Wednesday and
Thursday, and early morning lows in the 30s Wednesday and upper
20s to lower 30s Thursday. Will be monitoring subsequent model
trends for how the pattern evolves and for the possibility of the
first freeze of the season for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Light southeast or variable winds tonight through late tomorrow
morning. Winds will pick up to around 10 knots with gusts to near
20 knots out of the south to southeast by early afternoon before
diminishing again late Friday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     46  75  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  40  78  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    38  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   40  77  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  48  76  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       43  76  54  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       41  77  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20