813
FXUS64 KSJT 281706
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1106 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures today into early next week.

- Low chance for showers across West Central Texas on Sunday and
  again Monday night.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions possible on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 440 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Surface high pressure is currently centered over the area this
morning but will slip off to the east this afternoon. Meanwhile,
a surface low will move across the Great Lakes region, with
associated surface trough extending southwest across the Plains.
This will result in southwest surface winds developing across West
Central Texas later today, with wind speeds under 10 mph. Skies
will be mostly sunny today, although some mid clouds will affect
portions of the northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards
Plateau this morning. Temperatures will continue to warm today,
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s, with a few readings in
the lower 80s possible. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with
light winds and overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...Very windy Tuesday with potentially critical fire weather...

Strong surface low will move east across Oklahoma and Kansas
Tuesday. Very strong west winds indicated with the GFS and EC
model over West Central Texas, although the pressure gradient is
weaker in southern sections along I-10. The GFS model has 50 to 65
KT 700 mb winds with 45-50 KT 850 MB winds. The 850 winds are
usually a good representation of surface winds of a fully mixed
atmosphere during the daytime, so 50 to 60 mph wind gusts
possible. However, there still remains uncertainly in the
strength/path of the system 5 days out, so the system continues to
bear watching. Hopefully it will not be as strong. Critical fire
weather potential is also possible, with the strong west winds and
very low RH values of 10 to 14 percent. Areas of blowing dust
also possible in the afternoon, with the source being in the
Permian Basin.

Otherwise there is continued warming trend into the upper 70s to
lower 80s, Saturday and Sunday and lower to mid 80s Tuesday. There
is a low potential for showers Sunday as a disturbance moves over
the Panhandle, with a better potential Monday night ahead of the
second, much stronger system. High temperatures temporarily dip
into the 60s next Wednesday as a cold front moves through, but
warm back into the 70s the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions and light mainly south winds will prevail across
West Central Texas terminals through Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 440 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...Dangerous Fire Weather conditions possible on Tuesday...

A strong upper level trough will translate east across the
southern Plains on Tuesday, with a dryline/Pacific front advancing
east across West Central Texas during the day. A strong mid level
jet will develop across the area during the day, with model
guidance showing alignment of westerly 700mb winds around 60 kts
and 850mb winds around 50 kts. Downward momentum transfer of these
higher winds is expected to result in sustained surface winds of
30 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible across West
Central Texas by afternoon, along with relative humidity values
falling into the lower teens. Vegetation remains largely dormant,
with little greenup expected. This setup will be favorable for
dangerous fire weather conditions to develop areawide on Tuesday,
with the potential for the rapid spread and growth of any fires
that develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  47  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  75  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    75  45  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   73  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  73  47  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  47  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       74  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07