596
FXUS64 KSJT 040519
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  persist across the area this afternoon and evening.

- A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for much of West Central
  Texas along and south of i-20.Heavy rainfall is possible with
  the stronger cells, which may result in localized flooding.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Complicated forecast for West Central Texas the next 24 hours.
Latest radar shows a large area of showers and storms moving into
the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and this will continue to
spread northeast across much of West Central Texas into the
evening hours. This activity will continue to move, and likely to
produce fairly widespread 1/2 inch to 1 inch totals through
sunset, with heavier pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible. This is
Round 1 of the precipitation chances.

Round 2 is possible late tonight and into Friday morning and is
the more uncertain one, in coverage and location as well as
rainfall totals. The hi res models have continued to hit on a
heavier band developing across some portion of the area, most
likely east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line and focused
more of the Hill County and Heartland. This is when an MCV noted
across the Trans Pecos this afternoon drifts farther east and
interacts with a 30 or 35kt low level jet, potentially producing
an enhanced area of lift that spawns training of storms across a
30 or 40 mile wide band. If this happens in this air mass (with
precipitable water values soaring well above normal values)
rainfall could be torrential and flash flooding would develop very
quickly. Still, these features are so weak and the interaction so
complicated, if and where this band develops remains uncertain.

Given the pockets of heavier rainfall this afternoon and evening,
and the potential for a lower probability but much higher impact
flood event overnight, opted to run a Flash Flood Watch from this
afternoon through sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Rain chances will decrease for our area this weekend, as an upper
level high develops over New Mexico. Isolated or widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven, will be
possible. With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be
warmer than what our area is currently seeing, but still below
normal. Expect highs to be mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s
Saturday, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. With a
moist airmass, expect humid conditions.

The work week next week is looking dry and hotter for our area. The
aforementioned upper high is forecast to strengthen and expand, with
its center shifting over the Four Corners area on Tuesday. Our area
will be on its eastern periphery, but it will be our dominant
weather influence. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected
each day. With 850mb thermal ridge strengthening and expanding east
into our area, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s in the
early to middle parts of the week, and in the mid 90s to around 100
degrees later in the week (Thursday and Friday).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings through Friday morning at the terminals.
The ceiling will rise to mainly low end VFR by Friday afternoon.
Also, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Junction
line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  88  72  87 /  10  30  20  40
San Angelo  71  90  72  88 /  10  20  10  30
Junction    70  87  70  86 /  20  30  10  30
Brownwood   72  85  71  88 /  20  30  20  30
Sweetwater  72  92  72  89 /  10  20  10  40
Ozona       70  89  70  86 /  20  10  10  20
Brady       70  84  70  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21