771
FXUS64 KSJT 201115
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1
  to 3 inches this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts over
  50 mph possible as well.

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the
  highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

We will remain under the same pattern today and tonight, with
weak northeast flow aloft between two upper level anticyclones.
Shortwave energy embedded within this northeast flow will move
into west central Texas this morning and afternoon. In addition, a
weak frontal boundary will drift south into the Big Country late
this morning. All this is expected to combine to create a very
similar outcome to yesterday, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop initially over the Big Country,
then move southwest during the day, affecting much of west central
Texas into the evening hours. Although most of the activity
should end by 9 PM, there is a chance for lingering activity later
into the overnight hours. As mentioned in the previous AFD,
precipitable water values are in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, so very
heavy downpours and local flooding will be possible, and we do
have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the area. Also,
any of these storms will continue to be capable of producing
microbursts and wind gusts over 50 MPH, although most wind gusts
will remain sub-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

West central Texas should remain on the southeast side of an
upper- level ridge over the Four Corners region for at least
Thursday and Friday. Weak upper-level disturbances should rotate
around the periphery of this ridge over a persistent moist
airmass. This means that chances for afternoon popcorn-style
showers and thunderstorms should continue for Thursday and Friday,
mainly for southern counties. High temperatures will continue to
be around normal, or generally in the mid to upper 90s each day.

The pattern will begin to shift for Saturday and Sunday as models
show a strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada. This should bring a drier airmass with northerly
mid-level winds into the area and effectively shut off rain
chances for this weekend. Looking further ahead, models are in
overall agreement of this feature elongating and swinging
southward into the eastern and central US by Sunday evening. If
this comes to fruition, it would push a surface cold front and a
strong surface high pressure area through the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley by Monday. Depending on how far south this
front progresses, there is some potential for heavy rain and
cooler than normal temperatures for early next week. For now, this
situation will be monitored closely over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

No significant changes were made to the TAFs for this issuance. We
are still expecting scattered TSRA to develop across the area,
initially near or just north of the KABI site later this morning,
with additional storms developing farther south and affecting the
rest of the TAF sites during the afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms will likely produce erratic gusts as well as brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected
to become east-northeast 5 to 10 knots later this morning, then
diminish to light and variable again tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  72  96  72 /  40  20  20  10
San Angelo  95  71  95  70 /  40  30  40  10
Junction    98  70  95  69 /  40  30  60  30
Brownwood   96  71  95  71 /  50  30  40  10
Sweetwater  96  72  97  71 /  40  20  20  10
Ozona       95  69  94  68 /  40  30  60  20
Brady       95  71  93  71 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20