086
FXUS64 KSJT 072337
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
537 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record, or near record, high temperatures are anticipated at
  Abilene and San Angelo for today and Saturday.

- Stronger cold front Saturday into Sunday night, ushering in
  colder temperatures.

- Colder temperatures continue into mid week, along with a low to
  medium chance for precipitation Monday through early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Near record to record high temperatures Saturday, as compressional
southwest to west winds, develop ahead of a cold front moving into
the Big Country mid afternoon. Highs of 90 degrees expected at San
Angelo (record 87) and 82 Abilene (record 84). Abilene may see some
cooler air coming in before maximum heating, to keep from reaching a
record.

Otherwise warm tonight. A 30 KT (I-10) to 40 KT (I-20) 850 MB low
level jet will be developing late evening. Winds from the low
level jet will partially mixing down to the surface, with gusty
south winds developing, particularly in higher elevations of the
Big Country and Concho Valley. Mild overnight temperatures are
expected, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The cold front will continue south across the area Saturday
night, clearing the I-10 corridor towards daybreak Sunday.
Temperatures will be much colder behind the front on Sunday
and the NBM continues to be warmer than the Hi-res guidance.
Will continue to trend a bit lower with temperatures for Sunday,
with highs ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s across the Big
Country to the upper 50s/lower 60s over far southern counties.
These temperatures may still be too warm, so additional
adjustments may be necessary based on later model guidance.

We start to see some precipitation chances by Monday, as southwest
flow aloft develops in advance of a developing trough over the
Baja region, with weak disturbances moving across the region. The
NAM has come in a bit warmer with temps Sunday night/early
Monday, so keeping precipitation as rain for now across the Big
Country, with lows in the mid/upper 30s. Elsewhere, lows will be
in the 40s. Current forecast highs for Monday range from the 40s
across the Big country, to the upper 50s/lowers 60s over far
southern counties. Again, these temperatures may be too warm based
on latest NAM guidance, so additional adjustments may be
necessary. Will maintain a low to medium chance for showers and
a few thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Some moderation to temperatures is expected on Tuesday before
a reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Low to medium precipitation chances will linger Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Temperatures behind this front look cold
enough to support some light freezing rain primarily north of
Interstate 20 late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Obviously this is quite a ways out, so additional changes are
likely in later forecasts. Dry weather is expected beyond
Wednesday, with a moderating trend by late week. Wednesday night
will be cold, with overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s. Highs
Thursday will be in the in the 40s and 50s, warming into the 60s
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Gusty winds this evening should decrease to around 10KT or less
after sunset with VFR conditions initially. However, winds
overnight should increase again at some higher elevations. For
locations that stay less than 10KT, low-level wind shear may
occur. MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated for southernmost
locations with a low (<20%) chance of ceilings at San Angelo and
Brady. Ceilings should improve at all locations no later than 17Z
with increasing southwest winds.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  82  40  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  62  90  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    59  88  52  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   60  88  44  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  62  86  39  52 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       61  85  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       63  88  50  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK