717
FXUS64 KSJT 062316
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
516 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures today and Friday, then considerably cooler
  over the weekend.

- Low to medium rain chances late Friday night mostly in northern
  and eastern parts of the area, and on Saturday mainly in the Big
  Country.

- Increased potential for elevated Fire Weather conditions Saturday
  and again next week from Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

A surface low has developed on the lee side of the Rockies this
afternoon and the surface high pressure over Texas has shifted off
to our east. The tightening of the pressure gradient between
these two pressure systems has led to breezy winds today. As of
1:30 this afternoon, RH values are around 20 to 30% and they are
expected to drop as low as the upper teens to mid 20s this
afternoon. Because of the dry conditions and breezy winds, a
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon. Fire
conditions should start to improve this evening as south winds
continue to bring moisture into the area. Winds could remain a bit
elevated overnight as the low level jet sets up over our area.
There`s a medium chance (40- 70%) of wind gusts reaching around 30
mph overnight.

The surface low off of the Rockies will progress east tomorrow,
bringing a dry line through West Central Texas. Winds behind the
boundary will turn westerly and much drier air will be brought in.
Relative humidities will tank behind the system, dropping into
the low teens. Luckily winds will be a bit lower tomorrow, with
wind speeds around 10 to 15 mph. However with how dry the
conditions will be we`ll still have elevated fire weather concerns
for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

An upper-level low will continue to shift eastward and settle
over western TX by Saturday, with a cold front sweeping through
the Big Country Overnight Friday into Saturday. This front is
expected to bring cooler and breezy northerly winds back to West
Central Texas, along with some chances for precipitation across
the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and
Heartland. With the lack of precipitation expected along the I-10
corridor, drier conditions with RH values in the in the 10 to 20
percent range, and winds potentially reaching 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts on Saturday, there is increased potential for
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to kick off the
weekend. There is also a low potential for a few isolated and
elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of the NW Concho
Valley, eastern Big Country, and Heartland areas, with models
showing some steepening mid-level lapse rates which can support
lift and thunderstorm development.

High temperatures for Saturday will struggle to make it out of
the upper 40s to mid 50s across the Big Country, and out of the
upper 50s to upper 60s elsewhere given the ample cloud cover and
colder northerly flow over the area. High temperatures rebound on
Sunday into the 60s and back into the 70s by Monday under mostly
sunny skies. Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Thursday next week with above normal temperatures increasing into
the 70s and low 80s, and eventually into the mid to upper 80s by
Thursday. Gusty south to southwest winds, and continued warming
into the second half of next week, along with the potential for
very dry conditions, we are starting to see models hinting at
enhanced fire danger for West Central Texas mid to late next week.
We will continue to monitor this closely, as this has the
potential to become a fairly widespread impactful event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Gusty south winds continue across area TAF sites this evening
under VFR conditions. These winds will diminish at KSOA, KJCT and
likely for at least a brief period at KSJT and KBBD early this
evening. However, expect the gusty south winds to continue through
the overnight hours at KABI, and for most of the overnight hours
at KSJT. Have kept the inherited WS at KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA where
winds are expected to remain at 11 knots or less through most of
the overnight hours. Could see some MVFR ceilings at KJCT and KSOA
for a few hours after 09Z tonight, but expect the rest of the
area to remain VFR. South winds will become west to southwest by
late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     55  80  42  54 /   0   0  40  30
San Angelo  53  82  46  62 /   0   0  20   0
Junction    53  85  50  70 /   0   0  10   0
Brownwood   52  81  45  57 /   0   0  50  20
Sweetwater  55  79  41  52 /   0   0  30  20
Ozona       53  82  48  65 /   0   0  10   0
Brady       55  83  50  62 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20