061
FXUS64 KSJT 302336 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
636 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will let the Heat Advisory die at 7 PM this evening, although it
may only be a brief lull of a day or two. Trend that stated
yesterday continue into this afternoon with temperatures peaking
more in the 97 to 102 range with heat index values generally
100-105. Short term blends and raw model data suggest something
very similar for tomorrow, with dewpoints falling in the afternoon
fast enough to keep heat index below criteria. Hotter temperatures
will return for Tuesday so it will likely be only a 1 day
reprieve.

Winds dropped off enough to allow lows in the some locations to
drop down into the lower 70s and that will likely happen again
tonight in some areas. Most areas wont be quite that lucky and
still see lows in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Above-normal temperatures are expected to hang round through at
least Thursday of this week as an upper-level ridge sits over the
area. Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs around 100 to 106. Temperatures and heat indices on
the Fourth of July will remain elevated, with values in the upper
90s to near 104. The heat risk is forecast to be in the extreme
category for both San Angelo and Abilene, which means there is a
very high risk for heat-related illnesses on the fourth. There is
a slight chance of showers in the northern Big Country late
Thursday, but right now it looks like most of the precipitation
should remain to our north and west and there shouldn`t be impacts
to July Fourth festivities. The ridge will weaken over our area
starting Friday, as an upper low traverses over the Midwest and
breaks down the ridge. We could potentially see a weak front
Friday into Saturday, increasing rain chances and slightly
decreasing temperatures. Rain amounts are still uncertain at this
time, as models still vary on how far south the better rain
amounts will make it. The front along with the weakening ridge
will help to lower our temperatures a few degrees, putting them
closer to normal for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Some low cloud development is expected in the early to mid-
morning hours Monday (11Z-15Z) over the southern part of our area.
This should mainly affect KJCT and KSOA with MVFR ceilings. Low-
level moisture on Monday will be a little less than today, but
anticipate a few afternoon cumulus over the east-central and
southeastern parts of our area. Overall wind speeds through the
next 24 hours will be a little lower than what has occurred during
the past 24 hours. Initially somewhat gusty south to southeast
winds this evening will decrease by early tonight, with winds
veering to the south overnight. On Monday, south or south-
southwest winds 5-10 knots in the mid-to-late morning will
become south at 10-15 knots by early afternoon. Occasional gusts
17-20 knots could occur during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 101  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76 102  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   76 100  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  77 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       74  97  75 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19