274
FXUS64 KSJT 112315
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch now in Effect for most of West Central Texas through
  Sunday morning

- Rain chances increase through Saturday night/Sunday, with a
  cooling trend through Sunday afternoon.

- A drying/warming trend begins Monday, and continues throughout
  the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Went ahead and issued the Flood Watch for most of the area for
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

High res CAMs continue to show a troubling situation, with
convection building back into the I-20 area by Saturday afternoon
and then sagging south into the Concho Valley and Heartland
Saturday night into Sunday morning. In general, this has been a
little bit of a southward trend in the models today. This puts
the heaviest rain right back over many of the same areas that saw
the catastrophic rain a week ago. Soils are saturated and cant
take anymore. Given the PWAT values climbing back to near 2 inches
(150% of normal), some slow moving torrential rainfall will again
be possible. NBM and CAMs have their difference in amounts and
totals so will do a little consolidation and averaging for
possible rainfall totals. NBM had some areas with in the 2-3 inch
range so will use that as a decent starting point, with some of
the CAMs showing more isolated point totals in the 6-8 inch range
to use on the higher end.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows one upper ridge centered over
Baja del Norte, and another over the Bahamas/Cuba, leaving the
Texas coast under a col as a shortwave passes to the north. A
reinforcing shortwave is approaching from the west coast, and will
arrive in the region Saturday night, resulting in perhaps the best
chances for convection this forecast. Deep-layer shear and mid-
level lapse rate forecasts suggest storms could be strong, and a
few severe, especially from the Big Country to the Edwards
Plateau. Of more immediate concern is flood potential. NASA SPoRT
products show soils are still saturated from last week`s event,
and NAEFS ensembles increase PWATs to 2 std devs above normal by
early Saturday evening. Convection looks to begin after 12Z
Saturday in the Big County, then spread south into Saturday
night. QPF increases south-to-north, and later shifts may consider
a flood watch, especially north of I-10. As far as temperatures
go, this afternoon looks to be near normal, but thicknesses will
decrease w/the approach of the trough. As a result, with an assist
from convection/clouds, highs should be a little cooler Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The col will remain in place, and may even strengthen, over west
and central Texas through at least midweek next week, after which
weak ridging will resume. This will result in highs Sunday
afternoon around 10 F below normal, as treat for those who prefer
cooler weather. This looks to be the nadir for highs this
forecast, as temperatures begin increasing the rest of the week.
Even so, highs Friday should round out the extended 3-4 F below
normal. Rain chances will gradually taper off, as well. After
Tuesday, only slight chances of convection are expected
Wednesday/Thursday, mainly from the Big Country to the Edwards
Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR levels late tonight around 8
or 9z for most locations. Then, VFR levels should return by around
18z, which will also be accompanied by minor gusty winds at the
surface. A weak cold frontal boundary will be moving towards the
Big Country late during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of this
boundary, thunderstorms may develop ahead of this line. This would
primarily affect KABI around 22z and later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  91  71  87 /   0  30  60  60
San Angelo  73  91  71  87 /   0  20  50  60
Junction    72  91  72  90 /   0  20  30  50
Brownwood   73  89  72  87 /   0  30  50  50
Sweetwater  73  91  70  87 /   0  30  70  60
Ozona       71  91  71  86 /   0  10  40  40
Brady       72  88  71  86 /   0  30  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-
Jones-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99