094
FXUS64 KSJT 280744
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Low chances of showers by this afternoon, and low to medium
   chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and
   overnight.

-  Gusty north-northeast winds are expected Saturday evening and
   Saturday night following a cold frontal passage.

-  Colder temperatures on Sunday, with temperatures remaining
   below normal through the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 144 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Skies are mostly cloudy across west central Texas this morning with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This is due to increasing
moisture ahead of the next system currently developing over the
Rockies. As this system emerges from the Rockies into the central
Plains today, southwest flow will increase in the low levels and
westerly flow will increase at the mid to upper-levels.  The
resulting warmer temperatures riding over top of a relatively cooler
airmass will result in a fairly stout inversion.  The cloud cover
will likely hold tough throughout the day and temperatures will
generally struggle to get out of the upper 50s this afternoon.  By
late afternoon a weak mid-level impulse will move over the region
and lead to some instability aloft.  Scattered rain showers should
develop with some embedded thunderstorms this evening, mainly over
our eastern counties.  Rainfall amounts will be light and although a
few storms could produce small hail, chances for widespread severe
weather are low.  Rain showers should diminish in coverage from west
to east after midnight with cloud cover otherwise persisting.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

An upper trough will move southeast across the northern and central
Plains and into the Midwest on Saturday, and associated cold front
will advance south across our area during the late afternoon and
evening. Timing of the front should curtail highs a bit in our far
northern counties to the upper 60s/near 70. For the rest of our area
(southern Big Country south to the I-10 counties), highs will be
in the lower to mid 70s with south to southwest winds ahead of
the front, and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Gusty north
winds are expected Saturday evening and through the night in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s for overnight lows. Sunday will be colder
with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 40s. Northeast winds will
gradually decrease through the day.

Another upper trough will move east-southeast across the central/
southern Plains Monday, with a weaker cold frontal passage across
our area late Monday afternoon and evening. Highs Monday will range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the northeastern part of our
area, to the upper 50s/near 60 in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
After a cold start to the day Tuesday (morning lows mostly in the
mid to upper 20s), afternoon highs will be mostly in the upper 50s
to lower 60s with mostly sunny skies and light winds becoming south.

Warmer temperatures will follow on Wednesday (highs in mid to upper
60s) before another weak cold front pushes south across the area in
the afternoon and evening. The forecast details become more
uncertain by Thursday, but there is some potential for a light
overrunning setup to develop. An upper trough is progged to develop
over the southwestern CONUS Thursday, with southwest flow aloft
developing over our area. With northeast to east surface winds
(surface high shifting east into the mid-Mississippi Valley) and the
possibility of an embedded shortwave aloft moving over the area,
will have a low chance (20 percent) of showers in eastern and
southeastern portions of our area (mainly east of a Cross Plains to
Eden to Sonora line). Temperatures look to remain on the cool side,
with forecast highs Thursday ranging from the lower 50s in our
northern counties, to the upper 50s/near 60 in our far southern
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low cloud imagery and observations already showing some MVFR cigs
creeping into the southern terminals late this evening, with
conditions still expected to deteriorate through the night into
tomorrow and into Friday evening across all conditions. Expect
MVFR cigs to become dominate for the rest of tonight and into
Friday morning, but IFR conditions expected by afternoon and into
the Friday evening hours. Some drizzle and fog likely as well an
and there will be drops in visibility as well. Finally, scattered
showers should start to develop late in the afternoon and become a
little more widespread after 00z on Saturday and have included a
prob30 for it across those terminals most likely to see one of
these showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  55  73  29 /  10  40   0   0
San Angelo  62  54  75  31 /  20  20   0   0
Junction    65  53  74  32 /  20  40   0   0
Brownwood   61  51  74  30 /  20  60  10   0
Sweetwater  62  55  72  29 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       59  53  75  32 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       62  54  74  33 /  20  50   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07