569
FGUS74 KSHV 171751
ESFSHV

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Neches River Basin of East Texas...

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example, for the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas, the flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Mud Creek will rise above 7.2 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
         valid for October 17, 2024 through January 14, 2025

     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Mud Creek
 Jacksonville 7E    9  1.8  3.8  5.9  6.9  7.2  7.5  8.4  9.0  9.9
East Fork Angelina River
 Cushing 4N        15  9.2  10.3 11.8 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2
Angelina River
 Alto 8E           29  11.2 12.9 16.6 17.9 19.7 21.7 25.2 26.7 28.2
Attoyac Bayou
 Chireno 3E        14  5.8  7.9  9.7  12.5 14.9 17.3 18.0 19.6 20.9
Ayish Bayou
 San Augustine 10S 12  6.8  9.5  9.9  10.6 10.8 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.6
Neches River
 Neches 4NE        12  3.3  3.4  4.4  7.1  8.4  11.1 12.7 13.7 15.2
 Alto 8SW          16  4.3  5.8  7.0  8.6  9.9  11.2 13.3 15.5 17.5
 Diboll 4S         12  2.6  6.1  8.3  11.0 12.0 13.0 13.8 14.2 15.2
 Rockland          26  5.5  7.4  8.9  10.3 13.1 14.6 16.2 21.2 25.1

Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 343.8 344.0 344.1 344.4 344.7 345.0 345.3 345.7 346.2

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities
computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also
account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/wfo/shv (internet
address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$