036
FGUS74 KSHV 161520
ESFSHV

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
920 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Neches River Basin of East Texas...

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example, for the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas, the flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Mud Creek will rise above 9.5 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
         valid for January 16, 2025 through April 15, 2025

     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Mud Creek
 Jacksonville 7E    9  8.2  8.5  8.8  9.3  9.5  9.9  10.7 11.1 12.0
East Fork Angelina River
 Cushing 4N        15  14.8 15.5 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.5
Angelina River
 Alto 8E           29  25.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.8 30.5
Attoyac Bayou
 Chireno 3E        14  15.9 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.8
Ayish Bayou
 San Augustine 10S 12  11.0 11.9 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.9
Neches River
 Neches 4NE        12  13.7 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.4 17.1
 Alto 8SW          16  16.0 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8
 Diboll 4S         12  12.7 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.8
 Rockland          26  17.8 17.8 20.4 21.9 23.0 23.5 25.1 27.0 27.8

Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 345.5 345.7 345.9 346.0 346.1 346.2 346.6 346.8 347.3

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities
computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also
account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/wfo/shv (internet
address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$