533
FXUS64 KSHV 161739
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

We are seeing the higher pressures and cooler 60s all across the
MS River at this time with Vicksburg hanging on to 1024mb last
hour. Our return flow is underway with the SE winds 5 to 10 mph
with some teen gusts. Air temps are lower 70s across the board
with 74 in Tyler and Texarkana the warm consensus. It is right at
70 at a handful of sites. Good looking sunny day for the ole
"add 10 at 10(CST) rule" for a round lower 80s later this
afternoon. Zone update is out and new graphics underway. /24/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Surface high pressure has settled over the forecast area this
morning. This has resulted in light winds and little cloud cover,
other than some scattered mid to high level clouds streaming
across McCurtain County Oklahoma, and portions of East Texas and
SW Arkansas. This has allowed temps to fall quickly over the
region, with morning lows expected to start off generally in the
40s areawide. With upper ridging in place, dry conditions will
continue over the area today, along with the lower humidity
values. However, light southerly winds will return, as surface
high pressure slides east of the area. This will start a warming
trend across the region, with afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

This warming trend will continue into tonight, with lows only
falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Thursday morning.
Upper ridging will keep dry conditions in place Thursday, but it
will be breezy, as southerly winds will be on the increase. At
this time, it looks like sustained winds will remain just below
the 20 mph advisory threshold, but wind gusts are expected to
range from 20 to 25 mph. The increased winds should also yield
warmer temperatures, as highs are forecast to climb into the mid
to upper 80s areawide. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Another dry day is expected on Friday, as upper ridging is expected
to remain over the region, along with the breezy southerly winds.
Cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of an emerging upper
trough that will impact our area over the Easter weekend. Despite
the clouds, temperatures will once again climb into the mid to upper
80s areawide.

Friday night into Saturday, the previously mentioned upper trough
will dive southward through the Great Basin Region into the Four
Corners area of the SW CONUS. At the same time, flow aloft will
transition to southwesterly as the upper ridge slides east of the
area. This set-up will push a trough/cold front through the Central
Plains into the Southern Plains. However, with the aforementioned
upper ridge over the SE CONUS, the southward progression of the
front will be slowed down. The forecast continues to suggest it will
stall just to the north and west of our forecast area Saturday. But,
this should still be close enough for rain chances to return to
portions of the region. The best chances will be along and north of
a line from Tyler Texas to Texarkana to Hope Arkansas.

The ridge will resume its eastward movement late Saturday into
Sunday, as the Four Corners upper trough ejects into the Central
Plains. This will allow the trough/front to slowly push through the
area Sunday, and possibly through early Monday morning. Showers and
thunderstorm chances will increase areawide during this period.
Unfortunately, models still hint at an unstable environment in place
during the passage of this system. The Storm Prediction continues to
highlight a severe weather possibility for the entire forecast area,
with a Slight Risk for Sunday into early Monday morning. Dry
conditions will move into the region by Monday afternoon, as the
front clears the area. However, guidance is suggesting rain chances
will return by Tuesday and Wednesday next week, as the front stalls
and pushes back northward into the area as a warm front. But, some
recent runs of long-term progs suggest upper ridging and dry
conditions will build over the region Monday afternoon through the
middle of next week. So, stay tuned! /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

For the 16/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected until after
17/09Z as southerly winds begin to intensify and low level MVFR
cigs shift in across the airspace through the end of the period.
/16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the work week. However,
this weekend activation may be likely, and perhaps on both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  85  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  61  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  56  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  86  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  61  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  85  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...16