078
FXUS64 KSHV 150626
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
126 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Warm temperatures will continue through the remainder of this
   week with a gradual eastward shift of the upper-level ridge.

 - A major pattern change will commence by the end of this week,
   bringing our first decent chance of widespread rainfall so far
   this month.

 - This pattern shift will also bring a chance of severe weather
   on Saturday and Saturday night as a major longwave trough will
   propel a cold front through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Our prolonged streak of unseasonably warm and dry weather marches
on for at least a few more days as upper-level ridging continues
to dominate the region. A gradual eastward shift in the ridge is
expected through the end of the week, allowing for southerly flow
to eventually return by late Thursday into Friday. As a result, a
gradual uptick in dew points will ensue as Gulf moisture begins to
creep back northward. So by Friday, look for dew points to range
from the lower to mid 60s and then further increase into the lower
70s on Saturday.

This moisture advection will occur in advance of a major longwave
trough ejecting across the Plains with a southern stream shortwave
progged to shift near or just north of the Middle Red River Valley
and eastward through the Ark-La-Tex by Saturday afternoon through
the evening/overnight hours. At the sfc, a cold front will quickly
accelerate SE with the increasing upper-level support through late
Saturday and Saturday night. Given the extent of moisture return,
increasing instability and modest shear profiles in advance of the
front, severe thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
half to two-thirds of our area (generally along and north of I-20)
from Saturday afternoon through the late evening hours before the
threat subsides with fropa.

The progressive nature of this system that guidance continues to
indicate should promote a primary damaging wind threat with any
severe storms, but cannot rule out all severe modes being in play
at this early stage of the forecast. Unfortunately, a fast-moving
and more progressive system may also limit rainfall amounts which
we certainly need to tamp down the expanding drought conditions
over the past month or more. At the moment, QPF totals look to be
in the quarter to half inch range on average with higher amounts
possible through Sunday morning before all of the convection exits
the region.

Slightly milder air will filter into the region on Sunday in wake
of the cold front with dry conditions expected through Monday as
weak upper-ridging settles overhead. Low-end rain chances look to
return by Tuesday in association with the next trough shifting out
of the Rockies and into the Plains toward the middle of next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

For the 15/06z TAF period...VFR conditions will remain across the
region, with mostly clear skies. Winds will range from
light/variable to ENE between 5 to 10 mph.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  58  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  86  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  89  59  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  55  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  89  60  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  90  59  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20