499
FXUS64 KSHV 192244
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
544 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening
upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along
Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains.
This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term
period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with
mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Much like
today, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees over much of the
region during afternoon peak heating but should remain just below
our heat advisory thresholds, although cannot completely rule out
brief periods where criteria is reached in our southernmost zones
across East Texas and North Louisiana. Overnight low temperatures
will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some
isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The late summer heat will continue on into the weekend even as we
welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Expect lower to mid 90s
for highs both Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level ridge axis
still anchored across the region while a trough begins to dig from
the Rockies eastward into the western Great Plains late on Sunday
into early next week. The trough will help to nudge a cold front
southward into the I-30 corridor late Monday into early Tuesday.

Unfortunately, confidence isn`t particularly high on this front
moving much farther south on Tuesday before stalling out. At a
minimum, the front will serve as a focus for isolated convection
so have held on to low-end PoPs areawide on Tuesday and through
Wednesday given the continued uncertainty with respect to this
frontal boundary and how much progression it will make into the
region by the middle of next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the 20/00Z TAF update, MVFR/IFR vis/cigs remain likely by
20/09Z-15Z with calm/light winds airspace-wide allowing for low
cloud decks/patchy FG development once again. VFR vis/cigs return
by the end of the period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  95  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16