297
FXUS64 KSHV 081800
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - We are staying the course on added rain clouds and less hot
   temperatures through midweek.

 - Slight Risk for some gusty wind and heavy rainfall today
   continues for our Counties along and north of I-30 from Mount
   Pleasant, TX to Texarkana and Hope AR.

 - Another H500 short wave arriving late week will help to stave
   off the heat ridge until early next week, keeping some rain
   around for this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

We have a wide range of noon temps from mid 80s to mid 90s as
showers and thunderstorms are arriving on NW flow into our I-30
corridor. Also, a good assist from a weak morning sea breeze off
the Gulf coastal region is ahead of the game. The NE flow aloft
over the last 24 hours has induced a weak upper low offshore of
Lake Charles overnight (seen well of water vapor) and has initiated
a good push of convection across I-10 at daybreak.

Currently, the KSHV 88D is tracking numerous cells in SW AR and
more arriving to replenish in SE OK, all under light N/NW flow
aloft with the westerlies trough. Meanwhile, our Counties and
Parishes along and south of I-20 are seeing a good peppering of
early convection with a couple of organizing clusters sporting
occasional Special WX Statements so far. Gusty winds to 40-60mph
will be possible today with the SPC running a Marginal Risk for
much of OK/AR and down across our I-30 corridor. Likewise, the WPC
continues their day 1 ERO Slight Risk for heavy rains for these
same areas. The HRRR has been in flux, but continues to show a
good sandwich of the two players, with convection littered all
along our I-20 corridor into the mid to late evening hours.

The overall pattern has not changed much aside from the new upper
low over the northern Gulf and the big heat ridge over AZ/NM and
the Four Corners. A deep low of 581dam is just offshore of CA and
will be climbing over the heat ridge through midweek. This
arriving short wave energy will prolong the current weakness aloft
pattern we have, helping to bring in the summer rains. So with
this update, we see some PoPs and WX lingering overnight tonight
and maybe tomorrow night with some light fog toward daybreak each
day. Then as the CA upper low spills over the ridge into the plain
late week it will phase with a deeper 561dam upper low over the
Canadian Provinces and deepen the weakness down over the mid MS
Valley. This will essentially hold back the Bermuda ridge for a
couple of days, now arriving overhead hear early next week. So we
will hang on to more lower 90s perhaps through Sunday before the
sinking air of the building Bermuda build in and suppresses our
rain chances for early next week. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

TSRA is quickly filling in across the airspace this afternoon,
with many of the local terminals holding VCTS for the time being.
That being said, convective impacts, both direct and vicinity,
are to be expected through the mid and late afternoon hours before
the diurnally driven convection diminishes through the evening.
Elected to include TEMPO periods to the beginning of many
terminals given storms already ongoing. Given the airmass
convective regime, uncertainty does come into play on where storms
focus due to outflow influence. That being said, overnight cloud
debris will cover overhead, with model guidance suggesting some BR
across the airspace, primarily in areas where the storms focus
this afternoon. Confidence remains mixed on this for now, but will
adjust if needed in later packages. Tomorrow, rinse and repeat
with a mid to late morning CU field as we work into the afternoon,
with diurnally driven convection near 16z/18z.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Spotter activation potential is higher today, especially along
and north of the I-30 corridor for localized flooding. Regardless
of a formal spotter activation, vigilance to report any impacts
from inclement weather today is much appreciated. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  90  75  93 /  40  70  30  50
MLU  73  91  73  92 /  40  80  30  70
DEQ  70  88  70  92 /  40  50  10  20
TXK  74  91  73  94 /  50  60  20  30
ELD  71  87  70  91 /  50  80  30  50
TYR  74  90  73  93 /  40  60  20  30
GGG  73  90  73  92 /  40  60  30  40
LFK  73  92  73  93 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53