787
FXUS64 KSHV 180334
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
934 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

SHV radar this evening showcases light to moderate reflectivity
returns exiting the NW zones of the Four State Region as a deep
trough continues to dig across northern Mexico. 00z hi-res
solutions continue to advertise a generally dry and quiet
overnight ahead of an expected linear complex tomorrow afternoon.
Evening deterministic guidance has not strayed far from the
current advertised forecast. However, temps are a few degrees
warmer at this hour when looking at the sfc hourlies. These have
been corrected to match latest trends. Again, the overnight should
remain mostly dry ahead of what does materialize tomorrow
afternoon. Aside from the previously noted updates, no other
changes are needed at this time and the forecast remains on track.

Only note to add regarding the severe potential tomorrow is that
the evening hi-res has been a bit more aggressive with discrete
development ahead of the linear mode moving through ETX. This
will be a trend that is monitored overnight and through tomorrow
morning to see how this evolves and/or continues in future runs.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream through
portions of the area this afternoon and into the evening hours. As
we move into the evening and early overnight hours, the best
chances for showers will be for areas along/near I-30 and north
with lower chances for areas north of I-20. Lows will struggle to
drop much tonight with lows ranging from the lower to upper 60s.
From here, all focus will turn to the incoming cold front and line
of thunderstorms. A closed low that is currently situated over
over far northern Mexico will become negatively tilted as it
pushes into the Central Plains. An associated cold front will push
through north central Texas and into our region during the day
Monday and will be the feature that brings the potential for
severe weather to the area on Monday in the form of a squall line.

Overall trends through the past few days have slowed this system
down some. High-res models are this afternoon are currently
indicate that the ongoing squall line will reach our far western
zones of east Texas around noon on Monday. From here the line will
push east, reaching the Monroe area much around 6-8pm. Keep in
mind these times are subject to change with any new model run. The
other interesting feature that the models are showing is that the
line does not seem as strong when it reaches our western zones and
then grows upscale as it moves into western Louisiana towards
Monroe. Right now SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe
weather on Monday across our entire region. They have however
expanded the 2% tornado prob to include our entire region along
with the 5% wind threat. Be sure to follow for the latest on this
system as it moves towards our region. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Depending on the speed of this line of thunderstorms, there is
some potential we could see some lingering showers or
thunderstorms across our eastern zones Monday night. Aside from
this rain, the rest of the long-term forecast is going to be dry
as ridging begins to build into the southwest CONUS. The good news
is it looks like temperatures will be more seasonable for most of
the week behind this passing cold front. Earlier models indicated
that we could see a significant cooldown this week, but now it is
looking more like seasonable than anything, which is manageable.
/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs will persist this evening over portions of
NE TX into SE OK/adjacent SW AR near and N of a warm front, which
extends from near the Red River bordering Srn OK/NE TX SE into Srn
AR. Scattered convection has developed and will also linger near
the front this evening, but gradually shift N away from the
TYR/GGG/TXK terminals through 03Z. However, MVFR cigs should
redevelop farther S across all but the Ern sections of NCntrl LA
late this evening/overnight, and possibly (briefly) at MLU
by/after 14Z, before cigs slowly improve by late morning.
Isolated/scattered -SHRA may develop by mid and late morning
across the region, ahead of a N-S line of convection that will
march E into E TX by/after 17Z, affecting the E TX terminals
between 17-22Z, SHV/TXK between 20-24Z, and ELD/MLU by/after 00Z
Tuesday. Gusty winds and brief vsby reductions on SHRA will be
possible, with thunder likely remaining mostly isolated before
weakening by/just beyond the end of the 00Z TAF period. Once the
convection ends from W to E during the late afternoon/evening, VFR
conditions will return as quickly lift/scatter out. ESE winds
5-10kts, except 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts late over E TX, will
become SSE and increase to 12-18kts with gusts to 30kts after 15Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  81  55  76 /  40  80  50   0
MLU  62  80  61  76 /  10  30 100  10
DEQ  63  72  46  72 /  70  90  10   0
TXK  66  78  52  74 /  60  90  30   0
ELD  62  79  53  75 /  30  60  80   0
TYR  68  74  52  73 /  60  90   0   0
GGG  67  78  50  74 /  50  90  20   0
LFK  69  79  53  75 /  20  80  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...15