471
FXUS64 KSHV 211056
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

 - A cold front will enter into the region Thursday, allowing for
   afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday
   afternoon, though coverage should be less.

 - Rain chances linger for Friday ahead of a dry and hot weekend.
   Showers and storms look to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

24 hour difference across the region shows a cooler ArkLaTex when
compared to this time yesterday. Along with this, convective
coverage is less, though pockets of late night showers and storms
are present within the vicinity of a surface boundary across
south-central Arkansas, extending west into southeast Oklahoma.
Though the 00z hi-res output indicates a benign reflectivity
picture through the overnight period, given remnant residual
boundaries from decaying thunderstorm complexes this afternoon,
and the aforementioned boundary to the north of the CWA, elected
to keep some low end PoPs through the overnight period as a few
brief and very small showers have popped up, not to mention if the
previously mentioned convection in the vicinity of the boundary
is able to enter the northern zones of the FA.

For Thursday, the aforementioned surface boundary will continue
to push south, likely bisecting the FA during the peak of the
afternoon. The combination of frontal forcing and diurnally
driven instability should be enough to stir up pockets of showers
and thunderstorms once again, though confidence in coverage is
mixed as the hi-res output is spotty. If a drier presentation
continues, a decrease in PoPs may be warranted in an update later
this morning. For now, rain chances do return for some, with a
similar theme for the extreme southern third of the FA by Friday.
Again, and similar to Wednesday, afternoon storms will have the
potential to produce gusty winds, and heavy rain. This will be
something to monitor through the peak of the diurnal heating
period.

The influence of the passing front will be enough to see a drop
in afternoon highs for Thursday, though this will be short lived
as temperatures begin to gradually climb into Friday, with many
in the upper 90`s to near 100 deg F by Saturday. The positive side
to this is that as the front passes, drier air in the wake of the
boundary will suppress dew point temperatures enough through the
weekend to avoid the return of concerning heat indices. That being
said, this is not to say that the maxT`s through the upcoming
won`t be hot, and that heat safety should be avoided. With an
attractive forecast for outdoor activities through the weekend,
and hot temperatures in play, it is always highly advised to stay
hydrated, and ensure that frequent breaks are taken in a sheltered
and cool location.

Looking to the back half of the forecast, the discussed weekend
warming trend looks to peak around Sunday as a much anticipated
cool down is in the cards for the middle of next week. Though this
remains 6-7 days out, ensemble support of anomalous 850 cooling
across the lower 48 gives hope for some relief from the summertime
heat with another frontal passage expected. It is worth noting
that with a frontal passage this time of the year, storm chances
will come with it so look for an increase in PoPs through the back
half of the forecast period.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VCTS conditions possible across area terminals from 21/15Z
through at least 22/02Z. Otherwise, outside of convection, VFR
conditions to prevail across area terminals through the period.
Northeast winds up to 8 mph expected today, becoming less than 5
knots after 22/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  74  95  73 /  40  10  10   0
MLU  93  71  94  70 /  40  10  10   0
DEQ  92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  95  71  95  70 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  92  67  93  67 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  91  72  93  71 /  40  10  10   0
GGG  91  71  94  70 /  50  20  10   0
LFK  91  72  93  71 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05