677
FXUS64 KSHV 061529
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1029 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Minimal adjustments were needed for this morning`s update. PoPs
were adjusted back slightly to account for the decrease of
organized rainfall. But patchy drizzle continues to be observed
across the region this morning. Other than that minor adjustment,
the forecast is on track. /57/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

While the strong, positive tilted longwave trough remains across
the TX Hill Country into the Southern Plains, dryslotting will
continue to undercut the forcing in association with the trough
and choke other than low chance pops across much of the region
today. The exception to this is across our southeast third where
we continue to see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms
developing across SE TX and SW LA, rapidly moving north and east.
Held onto chance pops across this region but it should be rather
brief as that dryslotting continues to build into the region from
Central Texas. Isentropic forcing in the 800-900mb layer will
result in periods of very light rain and/or light drizzle through
much of the day and even into the evening before ending towards
sunrise Monday morning across our far eastern zones so added this
weather type to the forecast.

Otherwise, the big story weather wise is the much cooler
temperatures. Pre-dawn temperatures attm are in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and strong northwest winds are making temperatures feel
even cooler to go along with the patchy drizzle across our
northwest half. Should only see a slight warmup today with
afternoon highs ranging in the lower 50s northwest to near 60
southeast.

The upper trough is directly ovhd late tonight with the drizzle
likely coming to end across our far eastern zones. Likewise, we
should begin seeing partial clearing from the northwest late
tonight as well and while the pressure gradient will relax
somewhat overnight, we should still keep a light northwest wind.
All this to say while we should not see ideal radiational cooling
conditions tonight, we will see quite the spread in temperatures.
Overnight lows tonight will range from near freezing across far
northwest McCurtain County to the middle 40s across our far
southeast parishes. We may see some patchy frost tonight where
clearing takes place across our far northwest zones.

The clearing trend will expand south and east with the ejection of
the upper level trough during the day Monday and while winds will
remain out of the northwest, the fact that the sun returns will
allow for a warmup into the 60s areawide Monday Afternoon.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Northwest flow aloft commences Tuesday and after another chilly
start Monday Night when temperatures are forecast to fall into the
30s across most areas with widespread frost possible. South winds
return on Tuesday as well and with that wind direction a descent
warmup both Tue and into Wed. Another trough will move out of the
Central Plains and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wed into
Thu and a cold front will accompany this feature on Thu that will
pass through our region. At this time, the frontal passage looks
dry as there will not be much in the way of moisture return for
this front to work with but the front will knock temperatures back
somewhat for Friday before temperatures warm back up again for the
upcoming weekend. Attm, the upcoming weekend looks dry with flat
upper level ridging across the Great Plains.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

For the 06/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing an increase
in showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area this
morning. Main impacts so far have been for MLU, SHV, LFK, and ELD.
Generally speaking, this shower activity should diminish
throughout the morning and afternoon hours. Despite the rain,
lower CIGs will keep widespread MVFR to IFR conditions throughout
the majority of this TAF period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Spotter activation is not expected across the Four State Region
attm.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  45  64  40 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  58  46  62  40 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  53  34  64  35 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  55  41  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  57  40  64  37 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  54  39  64  39 /  30  10   0   0
GGG  55  39  64  38 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  58  42  65  38 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33