049
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

An increasingly active period of weather is expected through this
short-term forecast, beginning late this afternoon as strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop invof the DFW metro
area. From there, this convection is expected to rapidly expand
eastward near/along the I-30 and I-20 corridors in NE TX, NW LA
and SW AR very late this afternoon and through the evening hours.
The set-up for this potentially volatile period is marked by a
slightly capped environment along and east of a weak sfc bndry
situated near to just east of I-35 across east central OK before
tailing SW over western north TX. Sfc-based CAPE values range from
4000-5000 J/kg across these areas along and east of the bndry to
include roughly the NW half of our region.

For purposes of getting a better indication of how much capping in
still in place, we have a 20Z special sounding planned for this
afternoon. As this cap continues to gradually erode as expected,
convective initiation should evolve quite rapidly from around DFW
late this afternoon eastward across the Ark-La-Tex region through
this evening before gradually diminishing toward midnight. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are primary threats with potentially
very large hail possible with the most intense convection across
our NW half, especially within the I-30 corridor. Although the
tornado threat is lower comparatively, there remains at least a
low-end potential in this general area encompassing our NW half.

Moving ahead to Saturday, a rinse and repeat of today appears to
be in the offing given that the aforementioned bndry will retreat
back northward and maintain very warm and unstable air across our
region. In addition, more upper-level support is expected with a
shortwave embedded in the SW flow pattern aloft lifting NE across
TX into the Middle Red River Valley by late Saturday into Saturday
night. Once again, robust convection is expected during the late
day timeframe and into the evening hours on Saturday with nearly
identical threats/areas highlighted and perhaps a slightly higher
tornado threat compared to today. Severe potential will begin to
wind down toward midnight into early Sunday morning as the upper
forcing shifts NE with the ejecting shortwave. As for forecast
temperatures, they are expected to remain well above normal with
no frontal passages in store through the weekend.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Weak upper-level ridging will follow just behind the departing
shortwave on Sunday, but more convection is expected to develop
along a dry line well to our west on Sunday afternoon. Some of
this convection is expected to impact our NW zones late Sunday
into Sunday evening, and severe weather certainly cannot be ruled
out given the very warm environment ahead of this dry line. Beyond
that, little change in the overall pattern and set-up is expected
through the remainder of the weekend.

This warm and more active pattern will carry into early next week
ahead of a much stronger cold front expected to advance into the
region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. As a result, this timeframe
will encompass our next more organized severe weather threat as
all modes will be possible. For this reason, SPC has included our
entire region in a Day 5 Slight Risk to account for this next
round of potential severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Once we get beyond Tuesday night, a much quieter weather period
will follow for mid to late week. This will include a return to
more comfortable temperatures in the post-frontal air mass with
daily highs and lows much closer to seasonal averages for mid to
late May. In fact, it`s possible we may run a few degrees below
normal through the remainder of the long-term period leading into
the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR across the airspace to start the 00z TAF as a mix of FEW/SCT
below 5kft is present under a more robust deck of mid and high
cloud, tossing back and forth between BKN/OVC. This likely going
to be the case through the remainder of the evening as TSRA is
still well to the west of the airspace, closer to DFW/DAL. Latest
convective hi-res modeling does suggest that some of this moves
into the western portion of the airspace, within the vicinity of
TYR and GGG after 17/00z. Much uncertainty surrounds how long
these storms hold their potency, and how far east they do travel
before falling apart. Due to limited confidence, elected to hold
VCTS across the western airspace, with VCSH for the eastern
terminals, with SHV likely being the last of the local terminals
to hold VCTS at this time. By sunrise, low and dense BKN/OVC will
have advected north across the airspace below 2kft, turning to a
mix of FEW/SCT by the afternoon around 4-5kft under a mix of mid
and high clouds again. Convective initiation late tomorrow
afternoon will occur around DFW/DAL closer to 20z, and will
approach the edge of the airspace right around 18/00z.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with
any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe
thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening
over much of the same area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  92  74  93 /  40  30  40   0
MLU  74  92  74  92 /  40  20  30  10
DEQ  63  87  67  86 /  20  40  40  20
TXK  69  90  71  90 /  50  50  40  20
ELD  67  90  69  90 /  50  30  50  20
TYR  72  90  72  90 /  50  40  30  10
GGG  70  90  70  91 /  50  30  40  10
LFK  75  93  73  92 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53