311
FXUS64 KSHV 301145
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure across
our region. While it was elongated into the eastern CONUS, it has
started to retrograde some to the west. Meanwhile at the surface,
a weak frontal boundary extends from the Texas Panhandle east
through central Oklahoma and central Arkansas before lifting
towards the northeast. With the ridge pushing west, this frontal
boundary should allow for some convection to develop along it that
will drift into our region late this afternoon. High resolution
models are showing any activity will be very isolated in nature.
The best chances for any convection will be across southeast
Oklahoma, our southwest Arkansas counties and then central and
north central Louisiana.

The Heat Advisory will remain in effect for the entire region
through this evening. There does remain some uncertainty if all
areas will reach criteria with the convection expected. Thinking
that the convection will hold off till late enough in the evening
that we will reach Heat Advisory criteria prior to the
thunderstorm activity. Mild temperatures will remain in place for
tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 70s, mainly for areas
that see thunderstorms, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere.

By Monday, the frontal boundary will be stationary over portions
of the area, right now it looks like it will extend from far
northeast Texas into north central Louisiana. This will allow for
some slightly cooler temperatures to settle in for areas to the
northeast of the frontal boundary. Areas behind the front will see
temperatures in the lower 90s while the rest of the area will
remain in the mid to upper 90s. There remains some uncertainty to
the exact location of the frontal boundary, so any heat products
for Monday will become tricky. As such, I have elected to wait for
further guidance to come in to determine the best areas for any
such product, but it does appear that there will be some sort of
product needed for areas. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The "cooler" air for portions of the area on Monday will begin to
retreat on Tuesday and for sure by Wednesday with dangerous heat
index values returning to the entire area. To be honest, the
upper-level death ridge does not show any signs of letting up next
week. So bottom line, it is going to be hot with heat products
likely through the week. On top of this, precipitation chances
seem slim for the area, with the best chances being across our far
southern zones with any sea-breeze convection that develops. Long
range guidance is indicating a pattern change through as we head
into next weekend. All we can do with that information is hope
though. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few isolated showers have already been developing in extreme
Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas, but more convection is
expected later today, especially after 30/18z, as a weak cold
front moves south into the area. KTXK and KELD are the TAF sites
most likely to be affected, and rain chances are much lower at
KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK. There is still a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding impacts at any individual terminal. The
convection should dissipate by 01/03z. Otherwise, VFR flight
conditions should generally prevail.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  80  96  78 /  20  10  30   0
MLU  97  77  94  71 /  30  20  10   0
DEQ  94  73  92  70 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  97  77  95  74 /  30  20  20   0
ELD  96  73  92  68 /  40  20  10   0
TYR  97  78  97  78 /  10  10  20   0
GGG  97  78  96  76 /  10  10  30   0
LFK  97  77  96  76 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09