164
FXUS64 KSHV 052332
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
632 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

 - Temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the week
   and into the weekend.

 - Heat index values will reach 100 to 105 degrees from mid-week
   onward, with heat advisory headlines possible needed late in
   the week.

 - Rain chances will be low over the next 7 days, with the best
   chance across southern zones of LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The large scale pattern this afternoon features a broad mid/upper
level ridge, centered roughly over the Desert SW/northern Mexico
vicinity, extending eastward into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex
region and westward into Baja and the adjacent Pacific. Downstream
from this ridge exists a trough of low pressure across the Gulf
Coast States and TN Valley with then another ridge residing along
the Eastern Seaboard. In the lower levels, a nearly stationary
boundary remains settled along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the FL
panhandle, with broad high pressure located to the north
encompassing much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

With the pattern described above, the Four State Region is under
slightly better ridge influence as compared to the previous 24
hours. This is resulting in an increase in subsidence aloft, which
will help afternoon high temperatures climb a few degrees into the
low to mid 90s. A somewhat drier airmass will continue to result
in slightly lower dewpoints (in the upper 60s) which will temper
heat index values and keep them below 100 degrees. A tranquil
overnight period will follow, with clear skies across the area and
low temperatures dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Wednesday, the large scale pattern will remain unchanged, with
mid/upper level ridge influence continuing and weak high pressure
maintaining its influence near the surface. Sfc winds will shift
slightly to the south and with decent afternoon mixing, expect
slightly warmer high temperatures and dewpoints as compared to
Tuesday. With the slight increase in dewpoints, RH values will
also increase which will result in heat index values approaching
100 degrees. Despite the increase in heat and humidity, heat
advisory headlines are currently not anticipated.

For Thursday, the upper level ridge is forecasted to continue to
retrograde back towards Central TX, reducing subsidence slightly.
However, as the stationary front erodes, we will begin to see
more moisture advection into our region, increasing dew points
which is forecasted to cause a slight temperature increase
compared to Wednesday. The increase in moisture also will result
in increased rain chances for the southernmost part of our region
due to winds being weak. This is supported by the increase in RH
values, with the southernmost areas having values of 93%+, whereas
most of the central parts of the region are forecasted to reach
values of 75-85% RH. Heat advisory headlines are also not
expected, but cannot be completely ruled out.

For the long term forecast, a similar trend can be observed, as
the ridge continues to retrograde and the stationary front
continues to erode, causing temperatures to rise as well as
increase chances for airmass convection for our area, with
isolated rain chances reaching 20-40% for our southernmost and
south-central areas by Sunday afternoon. Heat headlines cannot be
currently ruled out from Fri- Mon, but as confidence improves
throughout the week a decision will be made.

Kovacik/Stroup

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Afternoon CU field is quickly collapsing across the airspace
though some high clouds may hang around through the early evening.
VFR should be the main theme through the overnight as the airspace
goes SKC at all terminals. Elected to add some marginal VSBY
reduction across the southern and eastern terminals by advertising
some brief periods of BR. This is only for the chance that some
patchy fog develops within the vicinity of the terminals. By
morning, what patchy BR does develop with quickly burn off with a
period of SKC before the afternoon hours. A CU field is expected
by the afternoon with the chance for some VCSH closer to 19z/20z.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed for days to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  94  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  69  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  69  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  72  97  73  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...53