407
FXUS64 KSHV 060303
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Sfc ridging remains anchored from the OH/TN vallies SW into E TX
this evening, although the higher theta-e air mass has spread
farther W across the remainder of the region (E TX/SE OK) compared
to 24 hrs ago. The evening satellite imagery does reveal an area
of elevated cu cigs that has developed/begun to slowly spread W
along the base of the sfc/low level ridge over Cntrl LA into SE
and portions of Deep E TX, with the latest 00Z NAM suggesting that
these cigs will continue to drift slowly W into the remainder of
Deep E TX overnight. Meanwhile, some patchy cu has also recently
developed over SE AR, which may also drift W into portions of
SCntrl and SW AR overnight as well, which may help to offset the
extent of radiational cooling ongoing across these areas.

Did have to update the forecast to redraw the sky grids based on
these current trends, with the greatest confidence for a partly
cloudy sky across the Srn zones of Deep E TX/Srn sections of
NCntrl LA. Only very minor tweaks to min temps were made tonight,
with the remainder of the forecast on track.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the 06/00Z TAFs, this afternoon`s Cu fields looks to continue
dissipating quickly after sunset, with VFR conditions prevailing
at area terminals throughout this forecast period. As with recent
mornings, brief VIS reductions are possible near 06/12Z, but do
not look to be widespread or long-lived. If any terminals are to
see impacts, KLFK would be the most likely. Otherwise,
redevelopment of a Cu field at or after 06/18Z looks possible.
Winds will become light overnight before shifting to ENE and
picking up during the day to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10
kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  94  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  66  93  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  61  92  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  64  93  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  92  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  93  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  65  92  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  92  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26