775
FXUS64 KSHV 272334 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A mid-level disturbance located over the mid-TX coast continues to
push north this afternoon. Radar reflectivities from KHGX, KPOE and
KSHV showcase bands of light precip working north across South and
Deep East Texas as dense overcast overspreads the local area.
Local observations suggest that not all of this may be reaching
the ground, something that will change over the next 12 hours.
Convective hi-res modeling suggests that precip will continue to
spread across the region as the shortwave negatively tilts
overnight. Marginal forcing support is expected through the
afternoon tomorrow, as modest destabilization at the surface,
along with veering wind profiles may support some rotation within
thunderstorms that can quickly mature. This severe threat remains
rather conditional given the local parameters in play. However, it
is important to remember that though the threat may be low, the
wind, hail and tornado threat is non-zero.

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning, the shortwave will continue
pushing east, with the associated showers and stray thunderstorms
following with it. The good news is that given the progressive
nature of the flow, we should start to dry out through the
afternoon, potentially even allowing for some sun to mix in through
the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures through the period will be
heavily influenced by passing precip, with highs Friday scattered
through the 70`s. Lows tonight, and Friday will appear similar,
ranging in the low to mid 60`s.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Southerly surface winds will prevail into Saturday afternoon, so
high temperatures will recover for the western and central zones as
the precip departs to the east. As a result, a mix of upper 70`s
and low 80`s will spread across the region. Come Sunday, a broad
and impressive warm sector will materialize, as gusty south-
southwesterly winds between 10-15 mph look to be in place. Gusts
up to 25-30 mph will be possible through the afternoon as all of
this sits in advance of a robust cold front that will quickly
catch up to a developing dry line across central TX. It is
possible that a Wind Advisory will be needed for this time period
given the potential for gusty winds through the afternoon. Ahead
of the front, localized destabilization within a moisture rich
environment of dew points > 60 deg F, and steepening lapse rates,
will set the stage for strong to severe storms where all modes of
severe weather will be possible. As the front works into the Ark-
La-Tex vicinity, convective initiation along and ahead of the
boundary would support the probs of severe storms. Though timing
and the west and southwest extent of the severe threat remain in
question, confidence is increasing in a possible mid to late
afternoon event that will continue into the evening.

Come sunrise Monday, the aforementioned precip should be east of the
local area with some degree of weak upper level ridging working
across the Plains. The post FROPA effect looks to be minimal when
compared to previous passages. That being said, aside from any
precip related cooling to the local temperatures, Monday for now is
the "coolest" afternoon of the extended long term period. There is a
signal for another frontal passage by mid-week, with the prospects
for more rain in the future.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Conditions to deteriorate across area terminals this evening as
moisture translate northeast across the region. VFR ceilings to
gradually lower with VCSH conditions possible areawide by daybreak
Friday morning, continuing through the end of the forecast
period. Otherwise, mainly southeast winds up to 6 knots expected
tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots and gusty on Friday. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  74  64  80 /  40  70  70  40
MLU  64  78  64  77 /  10  50  70  70
DEQ  58  70  59  79 /  30  70  70  40
TXK  63  73  63  81 /  40  70  70  40
ELD  60  76  60  78 /  20  60  70  60
TYR  62  72  63  84 /  70  70  50  10
GGG  61  73  61  82 /  60  70  60  20
LFK  62  74  63  83 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...05