496
FXUS64 KSHV 241758
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1258 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Another mild night is in store, followed by another warm afternoon
   tomorrow for the majority of the ArkLaTex

 - Showers and storms will return north of I-30 late in the day tomorrow,
   resulting in the possibility of flash flooding.

 - Rainfall will spread south into Tuesday, with further
   widespread showers and storms late in the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

As the weekend wanes and the new work week begins, the effect of
high pressure on the Four State Region will give way to renewed
northwest flow aloft, amplified by the positions of a large high
over the Four Corners region and troughing over the Great Lakes.
These steering mechanisms will establish an upper level pattern
poised to steer several new systems into the ArkLaTex through the
course of the week ahead, the first of which will begin to make
itself known on Monday.

For tonight, though, conditions look to remain quiet while lows once
again fall into the upper 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest.
Current timing projections begin to introduce a slight chance for
showers clipping our northernmost zones- including northern
McCurtain county and adjacent zones of Arkansas due east- as early
as Monday afternoon. This rainfall doesn`t begin to noticeably shift
southward until overnight, thus the majority of the region will
remain dry tomorrow. Accordingly, another round of mid to upper 90s
is in store along and south of I-30, with only zones north keeping
to the lower 90s. Meanwhile, Monday night and Tuesday`s rainfall may
lead to the potential for flash flooding, especially along and north
of the I-30 corridor.

The advertised cool down which will bring below average temperatures
for the last week of August will begin to make itself known Tuesday.
Bear in mind, this will be a rain-driven cooling event, therefore
the northern half of the ArkLaTex will see the more dramatic
effects, where prolonged rainfall and cloud cover will keep highs in
the 80s and even upper 70s for some sites. Areas further south will
see a bit of a dent in the heat, but still reach highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday will be drier, with new rain chances just grazing our
westernmost zones in east Texas, before renewed and more widespread
showers and storms close in on Thursday, overspreading the region
into Friday. Depending on the coverage and speed of these additional
rains, further flooding concerns may be possible across the northern
half of the region, while highs look to remain in the 80s and lower
90s, with lows in the 60s and 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the 24/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the period as this afternoon`s cu field will gradually fade after
25/00Z. Some cirrus debris will gradually overspread our airspace
later in the period as upstream convection across OK/KS traverses
SE. However, don`t expect any of this convection to arrive in time
to affect any of our terminals prior to the end of the TAF period.
Otherwise, look for E/NE winds between 5-10 kts this afternoon to
become light and variable overnight and then veer more to the E/SE
on Monday between 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  97  74  90 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  68  96  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  90  66  78 /   0  20  30  40
TXK  72  96  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
ELD  67  93  66  80 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  72  96  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  70  96  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  70  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19