680
FXUS64 KSHV 061146
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will pick back up today,
   generally keeping east of the I-49 corridor, beginning a rinse
   and repeat pattern which looks to continue throughout this
   forecast period.

 - Storms may increase from the north during the middle of the
   week as a trough swings southward.

 - Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout,
   with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

While the first half of this weekend has remained mostly dry across
the ArkLaTex, Sunday looks to feature increasing chances for showers
and storms. PoPs supplied by model guidance are spotty, reflecting
the scattered nature of potential convection, but given the
propensity for outflow-driven further convection, elected to
increase PoPs along and east of the I-49 corridor. Temperatures will
quickly climb from the low to mid 70s this morning to the low to
middle 90s by late afternoon. At sites where convection is slow to
develop or arrive, readings approaching the upper 90s may be
possible, especially at sites south and east.

For much of the week ahead, upper level flow will continue
attempting to enclose a large area of high pressure over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest, lose organizational structure, then
organize again. The positioning of these upper level features from
day to day will be very consequential to our forecast, as the
eastward extent of the high pressure`s influence will either inhibit
or allow for afternoon diurnally-driven convection, depending on its
reach, and possibly permit the influence of an upper level feature
from the north by mid week.

As it stands now, Sunday afternoon`s storms will dissipate by mid
evening, making for a quiet muggy night, followed by more widespread
pop up storms Monday afternoon. This rinse and repeat pattern will
essentially continue, with Tuesday through Wednesday showing a
noticeable uptick in PoPs north of the I-20 corridor, as models pick
up on a shortwave trough swinging eastward across the Ozarks. The
exact southward extent of any showers and storms is still very
variable at this juncture, and will be examined closely in
forthcoming forecast packages.

Thursday will see a return to the pattern which is defining much of
the foreseeable future, specifically afternoon and early evening
thunderstorm chances on a daily basis, with the highest chances east
of the I-49 corridor. Highs early in the week will still be warm but
less extreme than recent guidance suggested, with widespread middle
90s. Long range guidance indicates more of the same throughout the
week, with a bit of a warming trend possible late in the week with a
few upper 90s returning to the maxT grids, while lows remain in the
70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the 06/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
end of the period with light southerly winds prevailing. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
MLU  97  74  96  74 /  20  20  40  10
DEQ  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  30  10
TXK  97  74  96  74 /  20  10  30  10
ELD  95  73  95  72 /  20  20  40  10
TYR  93  73  93  74 /  10   0  20   0
GGG  94  73  94  74 /  10   0  30  10
LFK  95  73  93  73 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16