050
FXUS64 KSHV 191138
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Conveyor belt of strong to severe convection has remained north
and west of our region early this morning or along a cold front
which was located across NW TX into SC OK...extending northeast
into NE OK and SW MO. This feature will likely continue to move
slowly south and east today but should remain north of our far
northwest zones through much of the daytime hours today and into
the evening hours before the boundary retreats rapidly to the
northwest by sunrise Sunday Morning. Progs are in good agreement
today that our far northwest zones may get brushed by some
convection today through this evening and with the aid of peak
heating very late this afternoon into the evening hours, cannot
rule out the possibility of some strong to severe thunderstorms
near or along SPC`s Slight Risk Outlook area with large hail and
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts being the main threats. An
instability axis appears to develop across this general area late
today in advance of the stalled frontal boundary which combined
with descent mid-level lapse rates support the hail threat and
latest progs do support at least a minimal tornado threat with a
slight uptick in low level directional shear as well to go along
with the damaging wind threat. Still think any kind of training
and/or excessive, heavy rainfall threat will remain to our north
and west and thus, we remain under just a Slight ERO across
northwest McCurtain County through tonight.

Speaking of tonight, thinking is our severe weather threat will
diminish late this evening as the stalled frontal boundary to our
northwest retreats to the northwest. Much of our region will
likely go through a lull during the overnight hours precipitation
wise before we begin to see an uptick in precipitation coverage
across our northwest half the closer we get to sunrise Sunday
Morning. This does not appear to be anything significant as we
will need to await increased upper forcing in advance of the
ejecting longwave trough to our northwest and frontal forcing
during the day Sunday as the above mentioned cold front is
forecast to begin moving into our northwest zones Sunday Afternoon
which is a little later than progs were suggesting on Friday. This
would allow for more in the way of afternoon instability if the
atmosphere can overcome pre-frontal morning convection, something
SPC refers too in their DayTwo Outlook Discussion. Best Deep Layer
Shear and low level directional shear appears to be north of the
I-20 Corridor or across SW AR into the northern third of NE TX and
SE OK beginning late morning Sunday and continuing through the
afternoon before the front is fcst to be near a LFK...SHV...TXK
line by 00z Mon and near a LFK...ELD line by 06z Mon. Think the
severe weather threat should drop off quickly late Sunday Evening
across the northeast half of our region as we lose the destabilizing
effects of daytime heating, not to mention we lose the upper
level support with the filling upper level trough already into
Northern Missouri by 00z Mon. Again, there will be large hail and
damaging wind theat mainly with any severe convection on Sunday,
followed by an isolated tornado threat as well that will diminish
by late Sunday Evening.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The above mentioned cold front should have pushed through all but
our far southeast parishes before rapidly returning back northward
Monday into Monday Night. With the returning frontal boundary,
rain chances will return to all but our far northern zones during
the day Tue but it`s important to note that even with the passage
of the upper level trough this weekend, our flow aloft will remain
from the southwest and this will introduce a parade of
disturbances moving our way throughout the upcoming work week.

Starting to get a little concerned with the prospect for heavy
rainfall by mid to late week next week as there appears to be at
least three impulses moving our way in the Wed thru Fri timeframe
that will have plentiful moisture to work with to produce heavy
rainfall across our region. We are just now starting to see
falling trends on most of our area lakes and rivers and this will
obviously change if this very active, progress pattern continues
through the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

All terminals either currently have MVFR ceilings or will see them
in the next several hours. These ceilings will persist through
the day today until lifting to VFR this evening for most sites.
Although, KTXK and KTYR may hold on to the MVFR ceilings the
entire period if the clouds stay further east than currently
expected. Low clouds will begin to fill back in around midnight
tonight and should cover the entire region by daybreak tomorrow.
Rain chances will follow the return of MVFR ceilings and expand
eastward beginning at the conclusion of the period.

Surface winds will continue out of the southeast through the
entire period, mainly gusting as the lower cloud deck briefly
clears. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Spotter activation may become necessary by late afternoon into the
evening hours today for areas near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor. Spotter activation may become necessary for at least
the northern half of the Four State Region on Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  71  84  59 /  10  10  80  90
MLU  86  70  85  66 /   0   0  40  60
DEQ  82  64  78  51 /  40  60  90  40
TXK  86  69  80  54 /  20  30  90  70
ELD  85  67  84  59 /   0  10  70  90
TYR  85  70  80  55 /  30  30  90  50
GGG  85  68  82  57 /  20  20  90  70
LFK  87  70  85  61 /  10  10  90  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...57