726
FXUS64 KSHV 101004
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Regional Radar Mosaic showing the back edge of the widespread
mixed precipitation quickly exiting Northeast Texas and working on
Northwest Louisiana attm. Upper level trough axis remains across
the Upper Red River Valley of Northwest Texas into Southwest
Oklahoma and into the Hill Country however. Progs are insistent
that the rapid eastward acceleration of the precipitation is due
in part to dryslotting in the mid-levels that is quickly swinging
our way from Central Texas just downstream of the upper trough
axis. Upper forcing in association with the upper trough itself
will be moving overhead this morning and its this forcing that
could result in additional precipitation developing mainly near
and north of the I-20 Corridor through the Noon hour. As the
trough nears, the thermodynamic profile will be cooling from the
top down and that could be the necessary ingredient to change
the precipitation type from a cold rain or a rain/freezing
rain mixture to a sleet/snow mix further south closer to the I-20
Corridor in NE TX and NW LA before we lose this moisture all
together later this afternoon. Latest HRRR is focusing on this
probability across our north and west through the post dawn hours
today as are other deterministic progs. For this reason, have
decided to leave the Winter Storm Warning and Advisories in tact
with this forecast package with the understanding that at least
some of this could be cancelled earlier than the Noon expiration
time. While additional accumulations are expected to be light,
cannot rule out an additional inch or two of additional snow
across the Ouachitas of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
Arkansas, closer to the 700mb deformation zone with lighter snow
and/or ice amounts closer to the I-30 corridor. With temperatures
just above freezing along the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and NW LA,
any early morning transition from rain to sleet and/or light snow
could drop temperatures slightly which could result in additional
light ice accumulations as well before precipitation exits the
region.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 30s across our
far northwest zones (but just barely above freezing where we have
a pretty good snow pack) to near 40 across our far southern zones.
Let`s hope we see some melt and/or evaporation today on area road
surfaces because we are looking at very cold temperatures
overnight tonight which will result in black ice conditions
developing. Lows will range from the middle teens across our far
northwest zones to the middle and upper 20s further south.
Temperatures rebound for Saturday but still below normal with
daytime highs ranging from near 40 north to near 50 south.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025


In the wake of our current trough axis, we will see another weaker
trough carving its way out of the Intermountain West on Saturday
and into the Central and Southern Plains for Sunday. The latest
NAM output is quite vigorous with low level return flow,
generating at least scattered precipitation across our eastern
half Sunday Night which other deterministic progs suggest only our
far southeast zones may experience some precipitation Sunday
Evening. Did not stray from the NBM concerning these features but
will need to watch this moving forward with critical temperatures
possibly coming into effect Sunday Night.

Otherwise, the bulk of next week looks pretty quiet with near
zonal upper level flow and perhaps a weak trough passage late next
week. Returning moisture looks negligible attm, so will leave the
extended forecast dry for now beyond the small chance pops across
our southeast zones Sunday Night.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, large precipitation shield mixed, but
mostly RA continues over all of our cwa and the back edge of
precip nearing KDAL/KATT. Our air temps are near freezing with
pockets below since sundown. Long night as terminals end precip
from W to E 09-15Z give or take with timing coldest to mix some
light SN. LIFR/IFR lingers overnight and really all day with MVFR
toward sunset for an average. Our sfc winds will back from NE to
NW as system pushes overhead and out. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Spotter activation will still be needed at least through this
morning until winter precipitation can exit our region.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  27  47  30 /  60   0   0   0
MLU  38  28  45  27 /  90   0   0   0
DEQ  34  15  39  22 /  60   0   0   0
TXK  36  21  42  29 /  70   0   0   0
ELD  36  21  43  25 /  90   0   0   0
TYR  36  26  48  34 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  37  23  47  30 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  40  25  49  31 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for LAZ001>004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LAZ005-006-
     010>014.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ149>151.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ152-
     153.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24