505
FXUS64 KSHV 071110
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
610 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The story of the short term forecast continues to be a series of
disturbances being swept into the ArkLaTex on stubborn northwest
flow. In a nutshell, amplifying ridging over the Pacific northwest
and British Columbia in tandem with deep troughing over southern
Canada and the Great Lakes is creating a pronounced upper level
channel along which one system of storms after another will be
conducted down the Plains and into the ArkLaTex, on a repetitive
trajectory emphasized by a broad area of high pressure over Mexico
and south Texas.

With this upper level regime in place, the weekend will be very
unsettled, to say the least. Tonight`s system of storms looks to
push east by southeast out of Oklahoma, largely passing the Four
State Region by to our north, though a few storms are possible in
our northernmost zones this morning. A warm and muggy afternoon is
in store before the next complex arrives this evening. Guidance
indicates the possibility of multiple waves of storms continuing
well into the evening and overnight hours, coming to an end by
sunrise Sunday morning. Zones roughly along and north of the I-20
corridor are included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
weather, with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) just clipping our
northernmost zones. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary associated hazards.

Additionally, training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to flash
flooding concerns across the northern half of the region,
particularly north of the I-30 corridor, where several inches of
rain were already received Friday, and not much additional rainfall
will be needed to reach saturation and overwhelm runoff channels.

A similar timing regime looks to be in store for Sunday, with a warm
and muggy afternoon punctuated by scattered showers, before the more
organized storm system sweeps in from the west. ECMWF guidance is
already suggesting a more defined MCS structure to this system,
which looks to arrive in the mid to late evening Sunday, continuing
overnight into the very early hours of Monday morning. The new Day 2
outlook expands the Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather
into our northeast Texas zones and adjacent portions of Oklahoma,
Arkansas and Louisiana, with the remainder of the region south and
east included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Consistent with the
emerging MCS structure, damaging winds look to be the primary
associated hazard, with rather more pronounced hail and tornado
probabilities than have been seen in recent systems impacting our
region.

Temperatures will continue to reach above average values as
afternoon highs climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s today and
tomorrow, with warm, muggy lows in the 70s. These temperatures
coupled with muggy dewpoints lingering into the afternoon will push
heat indices to near or just above the century mark. These values do
not yet meet the criteria for heat product issuance, but sensitive
groups and/or their caretakers would do well to exercise caution and
limit outdoor exposure when possible.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The northwest flow regime will continue into early next week, with
the large ridge positioned over the Rockies and a deepening low over
the Great Lakes, gradually lifting northeast along the St. Lawrence
River basin. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will ride down the
northwest flow into the ArkLaTex through the first half of the week,
and the resulting soggy and unsettled pattern with see little
interruption, with rainfall chances spreading areawide through the
day Monday and continuing for much of the week to come. By mid to
late week, the ridge looks to lift to the north. However, this will
not spell any sort of end to our unsettled pattern, as a closed low
takes shape over Texas, opening up into a northeastward tracking
trough, favoring continued storm development, joined with onshore
flow inducing afternoon convection chances. Thus, showers and
storms will be expected across the ArkLaTex on a near daily basis
through to the end of this extended forecast period.

After this weekend`s heat, a minor cooling trend will take shape in
the form of areawide 80s through much of next week`s rainier pattern
with 90s returning late in the week. Lows in the 60s and 70s will
continue throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025


For the 07/12Z TAF period, some early morning cumulus continues
to linger across our I-20 terminals while cirrus increases from
upstream convection. As we approach daybreak, some patchy low
stratus will return across our East TX terminals and possibly
farther east toward KSHV. However, did limit the MVFR/IFR cigs to
East TX with low VFR cigs mentioned elsewhere with an expanding
cu field by early afternoon. Any convection is likely to hold off
until very late in the TAF period and possibly affect KTXK/KELD so
did insert VCTS at these sites closer to 08/06Z. Otherwise, light
southerly winds early this morning will increase by 07/15Z between
8-14 kts with higher gusts upwards of 20 kts through the afternoon
hours before diminishing slightly after 08/00Z.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  94  74 /   0  30  20  60
MLU  96  74  92  72 /  10  20  40  50
DEQ  91  68  90  67 /  40  50  10  60
TXK  95  73  91  71 /  10  40  20  60
ELD  93  70  89  68 /  20  40  30  60
TYR  93  75  93  72 /  10  10  10  50
GGG  93  74  92  71 /  10  10  20  50
LFK  95  75  96  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19