924
FXUS64 KSHV 092008
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
308 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Isentropic ascent in the vicinity of an upper trough over
Northeast Texas continues to result in bands of showers mainly
along and north of Interstate 30. Ascent has intensified over the
last few hours as the trough has moved overhead, and there has
been a corresponding increase in intensity of the showers on
radar. The showers should gradually move southeast with the trough
into South Central Arkansas and the I-20 corridor of Louisiana
early this evening. The rain should end near or shortly after
midnight tonight as the upper trough exits to the east. Skies are
expected to rapidly clear during the early morning area in the
trough`s wake. Combined with very light northwest winds,
temperatures should quickly cool after midnight. Most of the
area, except for portions of Central and Northeast Louisiana will
likely fall into the 30s tonight. A few isolated locations in the
terrain of Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Southwest Arkansas may
approach freezing early Monday morning.

On Monday, ridging aloft and at the surface will move over the
Southern Plains. This should keep us rain-free for Monday and
Monday night. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to
rebound nicely from the chilly morning. Most locations should warm
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is slightly above
climo.

Nuttall

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The main weather concerns in the long-term period will be the
potential for thunderstorms, some possibly severe, late Wednesday
and Friday.

Low-level southerly flow and westerly flow aloft should return on
Tuesday allowing for increased advection of warm and moist area
into the region. The next upper trough off the Southern
California coast will move onshore late Tuesday/early Wednesday
and rapidly eject east, weakening as it does. The shortwave will
be much more compact and fast-moving as it moves it West Texas by
Wednesday afternoon. Surface lee cyclogenesis will rapidly occur
over the Southern High Plains and a dryline/Pacific cold front
will quickly move east. There is quite a bit of disagreement among
the model guidance. The NAM develops very little if any convection
by 00z Thursday, likely due to strong capping in the low levels.
Forecast soundings from the GFS at that time also depicting low-
level capping across the CWA, but also about 500-1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE. Combined with the forcing from the front and upper
trough, this should be enough for at least elevated convection and
potentially isolated severe storms posing a hail threat. Both the
GFS and ECMWF are decent agreement with convection developing
across Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas by late afternoon
Wednesday. Coverage and intensity of thunderstorms should increase
during the evening as the upper trough moves east across the
forecast area. This system will be quite progressive, and the
thunderstorms are expected to move east and out of the area near
or shortly after daybreak Thursday.

Thursday should be a bit of a recovery day for us as dry and very
warm conditions are expected with shortwave ridging and
increasing southerly surface winds returning. Daytime high
temperatures on Thursday should climb into the upper 70s and lower
80s.

Going into Friday, our attention will be focus on a very large and
powerful upper trough moving through the Rockies. There will also
be a deep surface low developing over the High Plains. A very
spring-like day is expected Friday as gusty southerly winds
increase in response to the tightening pressure gradient. This
will also result in a sharpening dryline and cold front over the
Plains. As these features move east, scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. There
is still a great deal of uncertainty, especially as the primary
upper level forcing is currently progged to be north of the area.
However, this is generally a favorable setup for at least some
potential for severe weather, so it will need to be monitored
closely. Showers and thunderstorms should linger into Saturday as
a cold front moves across the region.

Nuttall

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Most sites remain at MVFR or IFR, with a few outlier airspaces.
Rain showers prevail in the far northern zones and will likely
impact the AR and LA airports before clearing out completely
towards the end of the period. Ceilings will follow suit, but will
largely stay in the MVFR/IFR range in the meantime. Winds will be
northerly and shift to be more northwesterly as the rain moves
east. Visibilities could briefly drop during pockets of heavier
rainfall but otherwise should largely stay VFR. There is a
potential for fog development overnight tonight for western sites.
Clarity on density and exact locations should come in future
packages. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  71  46  78 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  42  69  44  76 /  40   0   0   0
DEQ  34  69  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  38  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  36  69  42  76 /  50   0   0   0
TYR  39  70  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  38  70  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  71  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...57