087
FXUS64 KSHV 280611
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - One last hot day for most of us today with some low end triple
   digit heat index values west of I-49 and south of I-30.

 - Hot and humid air will crop us afternoon thunderstorms just
   about anywhere with a hearty upper disturbance in the NW flow
   flow bringing inches down I-49 overnight and through Friday.

 - Weekend starts to slack heavy amounts, but takes quite some
   time as the NE winds work in under the upper level fronts at
   H850 and H700 into Sunday. Labor Day looks nice with sunshine.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A mix of sun and clouds again today and with SW winds perhaps
many more low to mid 90s across the ArkLaTex. The morning will be
mild to warm with the hot afternoon popping showers and
thunderstorms areawide. The SPC has a Marginal Risk north of I-20
due to the upstream MCS outflow merging along the front for the
risk of damaging winds primarily. We could see some hail possible
as heights fall and atmosphere drops the freezing level with the
parent MCS arriving Thursday evening. And while tornadoes occur in
all months, backing SW winds to SE and then E with speeds dropping
off will greatly limit most of this threat. The SPC day 2 has the
Marginal Risk for damaging winds still over southern tier of
Counties and Parishes.

The WPC has a larger area for us in their ERO today with a Slight
down across I-20, fading to areawide Marginal for Friday. The
chance for minor flooding will be possible with some of these
nocturnal training thunderstorms and into early Friday as the
rain continues to pile in for us and our low water everywhere.
However, but much of this organized thunderstorm activity looks
to be fairly progressive, precluding anything widespread with a
watch at this time. The ground will run off faster than sinking in
as dry as we have become in these dog days. The skies will remain
gray into the weekend with still loads of moisture pooling on the
upper level fronts. The best news along with the needed rainfall
is that we will see the hot temps take a nice vacation until
seasonal highs return by Tuesday. Lows will be below average
through much of next week, despite the warm sunshine into early
September. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours this
morning, although low MVFR cigs should develop by/shortly after
daybreak over much of E TX/Wrn LA, and spread N into portions of SW
AR through mid-morning before gradually lifting/returning to VFR.
Low AC cigs will also fill in overnight across portions of SCntrl
AR, ahead of an area of SHRA that will continue to deepen/expand SSE
across Wrn and Cntrl AR. Eventually, this convection will build S
into SE OK/SW AR after 18Z, affecting the TXK/ELD terminals by 21Z,
and the I-20 terminals of E TX/N LA by/after 00Z Friday. Scattered
convection may also develop ahead of this primary MCS near MLU by
mid-afternoon, before the stronger convection arrives by early
evening. MVFR cigs/vsbys and locally gusty winds will be possible
in/near the convection, and while a return to VFR will be possible
shortly after the passage of the leading line/fropa, cigs will fall
and become low MVFR/IFR across the SW AR terminals by mid-evening,
and eventually affect the N LA terminals by/after 06Z Friday.
Embedded TSRA will also persist through the remainder of the evening
once the leading edge of the convection pushes through, with
additional convection redeveloping farther NW across SE OK/SW AR and
shifting SE through Friday morning. Light ESE winds overnight will
become SSW 5-10kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Spotter activation may be needed beginning Thursday afternoon and
continuing through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  85  73 /  50  70  90  70
MLU  93  70  81  69 /  70  80  90  70
DEQ  83  66  77  66 /  80  90  80  30
TXK  91  69  81  69 /  70  80  90  50
ELD  88  65  78  66 /  70  80  90  50
TYR  93  75  89  72 /  30  50  70  60
GGG  94  73  87  70 /  40  60  90  60
LFK  94  75  91  73 /  20  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15