387
FXUS64 KSHV 011716
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A few showers noted on radar this morning across south Arkansas
and portions of north Louisiana are the result of an upper-level
trough extending southwest from a low across the Appalachians.
Based on the GFS model, which is one of the few models that
briefly hints at this convection, showers should dissipate by
daybreak with dry conditions expected thereafter. Light winds,
dewpoint values in the mid 60s, and some degree of low-level
instability in response to a weak surface boundary across central
Louisiana could allow for patchy ground fog by daybreak. Any fog
that does develop is forecast to lift by mid-morning allowing for
mostly sunny skies and temperatures expected to climb into the
upper 80s to around 90.

The upper-trough that has lingered across the region for the past
several days will be replaced by an upper-level ridge extending
from the Pacific Ocean through the southwest CONUS into the
ArkLaTex on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will build from
the north bringing a reinforcement of cooler air areawide. The
combination of the upper-ridge and the surface high will allow for
mostly clear skies on Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures
from the upper 70s across portions of south Arkansas to the low to
mid 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Low temperatures Thursday morning will be seasonably cool across
portions of the ArkLaTex ranging from the lower 50s across
southwest Arkansas to the lower 60s elsewhere. The surface high
will shift east on Thursday allowing for a slight warm-bias
moderation in temperatures through the end of the work-week.

Conditions through the weekend will be highly influenced by what
seems to be an unsettled weather pattern in the Gulf of Mexico.
Prevailing upper-level ridge will be replaced by a deepening low
across Mexico into Texas on Friday bringing increased instability
to the region. A surface low developing across the Bay of
Campeche with a trough extending northward across the north-
central gulf coast could generate a few showers and thunderstorms
across portions of north Louisiana on Thursday into Friday.
Situation in the Gulf of Mexico becomes increasingly more
complicated during the weekend with a broad surface low
overspreading much of the basin. At the same time, a strong
surface high is forecast to south across the central CONUS. The
race between the approaching high and/or the northward drifting
low in the gulf could be the difference between a wet vs dry
weekend for much of north Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Based on
model trends, it seems that the surface high will prevail and
drive the surface low eastward across the gulf allowing for
continued dry conditions across the ArkLaTex. Expect temperatures
by Sunday and Monday to range from highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the lower 60s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period as
upper ridging builds in from the west. Lower PWATs across the
airspace tomorrow look to suppress afternoon CU field
development. For the time being, regional satellite depicts the
routine CU field evolving for this afternoon. General FEW/SCT at
or below 10kft prior dissipation around sunset, with SKC expected
overnight and through 12z tomorrow. Terminal winds should remain
northeasterly, between 5-10 KT.

KNAPP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  63  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  60  84  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  57  81  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  65  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  67  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...53