434
FXUS64 KSHV 181129
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - Oppressive heat will continue through midweek, with afternoon
   temperatures again climbing into the upper 90s to in excess of
   100 degrees, with resultant heat indices again ranging from
   105-110 degrees areawide.

 - Isolated to scattered convection will be possible Monday
   afternoon, especially over Northeast and Central Louisiana,
   which may provide a brief respite from the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The early morning upper air analysis indicates upper ridging that
remains anchored from the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley, which
is progged to expand E into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic states
today, thus expanding the heat dome farther E into these areas.
Closer to home, low level ridging should begin to backdoor SW into
E TX today, with low level winds becoming more ENE through the
day, with some consensus in the progs of backdooring slightly
drier air SW into the region by midday/into the afternoon once the
daily morning evapotranspiration has ended. This may also result
in a reduced cu field as well, which should translate into similar
if not slightly hotter temps than what was observed Sunday
afternoon. The NBM continues to run a slight "cool bias" with max
temps, although its output tonight is better than what it has
suggested in previous days, but still adjusted temps up a degree
or so in some areas to account for local heating effects.
Dewpoints continue to run a bit high though that what has been
observed, and thus have trended these numbers down a bit
especially with the potential of better mixing of the drier air
backdooring SW the next couple of days. While some localized areas
may briefly reach Extreme Heat Warning criteria again Monday,
have opted to maintain the Heat Advisory areawide through early
evening, with the likelihood that heat headlines will again be
carried over into Tuesday as little change in the overall synoptic
pattern is expected. Still though, much of N LA/Srn AR will
remain on the high end of Advisory criteria and as hot as Hades,
and thus extreme caution should continue to be taken until the
heat wave is able to relax by late week.

However, some potential relief may be in the offing later this
afternoon as the various progs suggest that scattered convection
will be possible this afternoon from NE and Cntrl LA into Lower
Toledo Bend Country as a weakness aloft will drift SW around the
periphery of the upper ridge during peak heating/max instability.
Given PW`s still remaining near 2 inches this afternoon over
these areas, isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing
downbursts will be possible, with enough moisture available
through the column elsewhere for the potential for isolated
convection as was the case Sunday afternoon. Thus, have added
slight chance pops for the remainder of the region to account for
this, with the convection diminishing during the early evening
with the loss of heating.

Convection coverage should be more isolated Tuesday as the drier
air deepens to some extent along the low level ridge axis, with
any afternoon convection remaining along/S of I-20. Isolated
convection may also develop farther N across the higher terrain of
SE OK/Wrn AR Tuesday afternoon, where slight chance pops were
added for the far Nrn zones. The oppressive heat will continue
though Tuesday with most locales nearing or exceeding the century
mark, with resultant heat indices again well in Advisory criteria
and nearing 110 degrees over localized areas.

A change in the synoptic pattern will commence by Wednesday as the
upper ridge begins to retreat back to the W over the Four Corners
Region/Rockies, and portions of the Cntrl Plains, allowing for
weak troughing to drift SSE into the Srn Plains/Ozarks and Mid MS
Valley. While another quick rise in temps is expected Wednesday
(into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees), this weakness aloft should
tap into the strong insolation and resultant instability for
scattered convection through the day areawide as it spreads from N
to S. Increased cloud cover and the potential for additional
convection development (and needed rain) remains in the offing for
much of the area through late week, and possibly for portions of E
TX/N LA as we enter into next weekend as this weak shear axis
settles S and potentially becomes cut off from the main flow.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast
period ending 19/12Z. A weak pressure gradient will maintain light
winds near 5 knots this afternoon. Winds to again become near calm
after 19/00Z. Otherwise, VCTS conditions may be possible across
mainly MLU/ELD/LFK terminals this afternoon. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight, although
some of the stronger storms may produce locally gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  76 102  77 /  20  10  10  10
MLU 102  75 100  75 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  99  73 101  73 /  20  10  10  20
TXK 102  76 103  76 /  20  10  10  10
ELD 100  74 100  72 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  98  76 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
GGG 101  75 101  75 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  99  74  99  75 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05