391
FXUS64 KSHV 191020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
520 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds have settled across the region
this morning under upper-level ridging. Short-term progs suggest
that fog will form again over the next several hours, then
diminish a couple hours after daybreak. No widespread dense fog is
expected, but we will monitor this closely. With upper ridging
established over the region over the next couple of days, quiet
conditions will continue, but we will see above normal temperatures.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 90s under partly cloudy
skies. Despite the above normal temps, heat index values should
remain a few degrees below the 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria.

/20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper ridging will remain in place over the weekend, along with
the quiet and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will
once again climb into the mid 90s, with overnight lows remaining
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite the above normal temperatures,
heat index values should still remain just below the 105 degree
Heat Advisory criteria. By the first of next week, the ridge will
flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an approaching
longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies.
Long-range progs are now suggesting the trough could make it into
our extreme northern sections as early as Monday, just north of
the Interstate 30 corridor. This would result in rain chances
across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest
Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front is expected to push
into the region, bringing a return in widespread rain chances, as
it stalls across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of now,
dry conditions look to return by next Thursday, as the frontal
boundary finally pushes east of the region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing across the Four State Region.
Fog is very patchy at best with a thin layer of moisture near
4-5kft resulting in some cloud cover across Northern Louisiana
attm. IFR/LIFR ceilings with a narrow band of moisture just west
of our airspace could maybe sneak into the TYR terminal for an
hour or two at sunrise but brief is the key word. Held onto TEMPO
VSBY restrictions at the TXK/ELD/MLU and LFK terminals only
through 13-14z this morning. Otherwise a cu field will redevelop
today with daytime heating before dissipating this evening. Look
for mostly variable to southeast winds today with speeds under
10kts through the period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13