262
FXUS64 KSHV 182008
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Another very warm spring day has yielded afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s over much of the region with another degree
or two rise possible. Today`s cu field has managed to scatter out
rather well this afternoon with good boundary layer mixing aided
by the gusty southerly winds that continue areawide. Even as the
cu field largely fades after sunset, thickening cirrus clouds will
continue to increase from the west with low stratus eventually
returning from around midnight through daybreak on Saturday. As a
result, expect overnight temperatures to run well above average
once again with a range of upper 60s to lower 70s.

As far as convection is concerned, little if any activity is
expected overnight as the longwave trough continues to ever so
slowly churn its way across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile,
the sfc cold front is currently bisecting Oklahoma and extends SW
through the Texas Panhandle. As the upstream trough gradually
pivots farther eastward overnight, increasing lift along the sfc
boundary will initiate convection across much of North Texas and
Southern Oklahoma through daybreak. Some of this activity could
clip parts of our extreme NW zones mainly into McCurtain County
in SE Oklahoma so there remains a very low-end Marginal Risk for
severe storms clipping the NW half of McCurtain County through the
pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, expect a warm and dry overnight period
across the remainder of the region.

Through the day on Saturday, the aforementioned sfc boundary is
progged to stall and actually lift back northward just slightly
such that much of the day on Saturday will be dry and void of
convection across our region. It isn`t until Saturday night and
especially Sunday when our severe weather threat increases as the
upper-level trough finally ejects out the Rockies into the Central
and Southern Plains. Overall, the stronger dynamics for supporting
severe thunderstorms will lift more NE with the ejecting trough so
that is why SPC has continues to favor low-end risk categories
(Marginal to Slight) during this event. With that said, damaging
wind gusts and large hail still appear to be the primary threats
associated with any severe convection while an isolated tornado or
two remain in the mix as well.

In terms of timing, our NW zones will be on the hook as early as
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening before a lull in
activity early on Sunday. As the atmosphere recovers and heating
is maximized ahead of the cold front on Sunday afternoon, expect a
renewed severe threat across much of the region through mid to late
evening before the threat gradually diminishes after midnight with
the loss of heating.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Although the severe threat should be winding down late on Sunday
night, additional convection is expected to continue across our SE
zones as the cold front slowly seeps south of I-20 through Monday.
The front will eventually stall out and then return back northward
by late Tuesday into Wednesday with additional unsettled weather
returning through mid to late week.

For now, more specific details in terms of severe weather threats
are uncertain but disturbances moving through the SW flow pattern
aloft will maintain decent lift and forcing for thunderstorms by
Wednesday and likely continuing through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will maintain above average through much of the long
term period with southerly flow prevailing in wake of the returning
warm front earlier in the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

For the 18/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs continue with a mix of
cloud decks as southwesterly flow aloft also continues. As
southerly winds stay elevated over 10 kts (G20 kts likely), low
cloud redevelopment will introduce a brief window of MVFR cigs in
most of the airspace starting at 19/07Z through the end of the
period.

/16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Spotter activation is not expected today through tonight but will
likely become necessary for areas near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor beginning as early as Saturday Afternoon and Saturday
Night. Spotter activation may become necessary for the remainder
of the Four State Region on Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  85  70  87 /   0  10  10  70
MLU  70  87  69  87 /   0   0   0  30
DEQ  67  82  64  78 /  30  30  30  90
TXK  71  86  69  84 /   0  20  20  80
ELD  67  85  66  85 /   0   0  10  60
TYR  70  85  69  80 /   0  20  10  90
GGG  69  85  68  83 /   0  10  10  80
LFK  70  87  70  86 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16