711
FXUS64 KSHV 010011
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
711 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

 - Cold front driven thunderstorms across Oklahoma will attempt to
   move into the region late this evening, and through the early
   overnight period.

 - Dangerous heat, including triple digit heat indices, are
   expected through the week, and the Fourth of July holiday
   weekend.

 - Rain chances become minimal by the end of the week, but return
   by the end of the weekend, with amounts generally below an
   inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Rather quiet across the Four State Region as we head into the
afternoon. That being said, temperatures are quickly climbing with
many of the 12 PM CDT obs holding temperatures in the upper 80`s,
and even some low 90`s at both SHV and TXK. To be expected by
this point, the afternoon field of cumulus will remain overhead as
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms focus across the
eastern and southern zones. To the north of the FA, a cold front
will drift southward through the day, allowing for convective
coverage to increase across central Oklahoma through the mid and
late afternoon. This linear complex will attempt to work southward
into SE Oklahoma and the I-30 vicinity around midnight. Hi-res
guidance has been consistent in its presentation that the complex
will gradually dissipate through the overnight hours, potentially
even prior to reaching the I-20 corridor. To combat some
uncertainty, elected to hold slight chance PoPs within the I-20
vicinity through the early AM hours.

Though the brief stint with the surface boundary to the north and
the parent upper level trough swinging across the Upper Midwest will
briefly tamper with the upper ridge overhead, the ridge will
continue to influence the local region through tomorrow afternoon,
again setting the stage for another hot day. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will return again as the seasonal diurnal
convection trend continues through the first half of the week,
with a focus along the stronger boundary forcing across the NE/E
zones, though this time of the year anyone could see a pop up
storm given lingering residual boundaries mixed with peak heating.
Regarding the heat, and with another hot afternoon expected
tomorrow, heat products may be needed as heat indices climb
towards or possibly in excess of 105 deg F.

The story through the extended forecast, including the Fourth of
July holiday weekend, will be the heat. Base NBM output is already
pushing towards some higher end values, with highs in the upper 90`s
for many. Given the heat and aforementioned humidity, the odds that
heat products will be needed through the holiday, and the upcoming
weekend are increasing. With the ridge influence allowing for a
somewhat attractive outdoor forecast for a holiday weekend, and with
hot temperatures in play, hydration, shade and frequent breaks will
be a must to avoid the risk of heat related illness. As it stands
now, PoPs look hard to come by for the end of the week until the
return of sea breeze based convection late Sunday afternoon.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the 01/00z TAF period...VFR conditions across all sites.
However, a line of showers and thunderstorms will move into the
region this evening along a weak cool front, which could bring
some convection at KTXK just before midnight. Models have this
precip diminishing, with low clouds developing at KTXK and KELD
overnight. VFR conditions should return by late tomorrow morning,
but convection is expected to re-develop along the I-20 corridor
tomorrow afternoon, where the front is expected to stall. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over Southeast
Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  96  77  96 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  76  96  74  94 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  71  91  72  93 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  76  95  75  96 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  74  93  72  93 /  20  30  10  20
TYR  75  95  75  95 /  10  20   0  10
GGG  75  94  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LFK  74  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...20