672
FXUS64 KSHV 300718
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
218 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A lingering upper-low across the Ohio River Valley to maintain
northerly flow across the ArkLaTex through tonight, An upper-
level ridging across the majority of the southwest CONUS to build
across the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. The result will be a continuation
of dry conditions across the region through the short-term
period. At the surface, broad high pressure will maintain light
north to northeast winds today into Tuesday. Temperatures
throughout the short-term period to range from highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

High pressure swinging southeast across the central CONUS at the
start of the period will allow for a reinforcement of dry and
slightly cooler air across the region through Thursday night.
Aloft, upper-level ridging to maintain mostly clear skies and a
dry forecast. Temperatures through Thursday to range from highs in
the upper 80s to lows in the low to mid 60s.

Forecast becomes somewhat uncertain from Friday onward due to the
synoptic pattern potentially becoming more influenced by activity
in the Gulf of Mexico. On Friday, an upper-trough will deepen
across Mexico into Texas opening up a southwest flow regime across
the ArkLaTex. Models have been inconsistent regarding a potential
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico late in the work week into the
weekend. At this time, it seems that the surface high across the
ArkLaTex will prevail, driving any low-level disturbance in the
gulf east-northeastward along the southern periphery of the ridge
through Florida. Therefore, at this time will maintain continued
dry conditions across the ArkLaTex through the long-term period.
Temperatures from late-week through the weekend to range from
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the 30/06Z TAF update, light winds will allow for MVFR/IFR
vis/cigs (at 30/09-15Z) in an otherwise VFR filled TAF period.
/16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  69  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  69  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  88  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  89  66  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  64  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  92  67  92  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16