370
FXUS64 KSHV 101152
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
652 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Clear skies overhead with a little cirrus on the western horizon.
Showers and even some thunderstorms over the last hour for south
central OK, moving into N TX. This is due to light NW flow and a
weakness aloft at 583dam, which is going to edge over E OK by
this time on Friday morning. We now have an official pop grid in
the forecast, but only for a few hours before daybreak and only in
McCurtain County. Generally, NW flow always does better
nocturnally and this weakness will soon fade away with heating.
Our high temperatures will continue to warm in the short term and
early long, but the low temps this time tomorrow will again see a
large range of 50s. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

A few lows in the lower 60s will appear Friday and early this
weekend with even more to spread around on Sunday as the air mass
of late is washing away. The NE winds will be running out of gas
early on Friday. Light winds will veer to E/SE Friday afternoon
and prevail from the SE for Saturday. Sunday will see SW winds,
notoriously hot, with some compressional heating to boot ahead of
our next cold front. We may even shoot for a triple digit heat
index reading somewhere.

It will be day of record ties and some breaks of long time
records established in 1963. The 92 degrees in Shreveport is one
of the cooler and thereby slam dunks. Most of the 1963 group of
our many record high temp records were in mid 90s at Tyler,
Longview, Monroe and ElDorado. And our current forecast grid is
for more mid 90s, but some guidance is trending upper. Beyond this
last hot day, a cold front will arrive overnight.

This next air mass is a big one, at 1032mb early in the week. The
NE winds will start to backdoor in for us late on Sunday and
continue during the overnight, remaining gusty into Monday. Lows
will be warm due to the winds stirring and keep plenty of 60s
around, but our highs will take a dent with mid to upper 70s in S
AR and some mid 80s down into the Parishes. Parts of E TX will see
near 90 one last time.

Then the big air mass will keep the mercury well below average
for a couple of days with 70s areawide. Lows will see a lot more
40s spread around behind this cold front. The slowly modifying
air mass will come in for a landing in N MS at 1024mb by noon on
Wednesday and a slight warming trend will ensue to end the work
week. As eluded to yesterday, beyond day 7 lies a nice deep trough
down over NM and TX with SW flow for us coming and hopefully some
rain as well. Also, to note the distant long range has another
tropical cyclone entering the Gulf by next weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the 10/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the period with SKC this morning. Some high clouds upstream over
North Texas and Central Oklahoma will gradually spill SE later in
the day and may extend into our northern airspace so did account
for these clouds at the TXK/TYR/GGG/SHV/ELD terminals. Otherwise,
near calm winds through early morning will increase from the E/NE
between 5-10 kts later today and diminish once again after 11/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  58  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  87  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  85  53  87  55 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  87  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  52  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  89  58  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19