035
FXUS64 KSHV 040421
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1121 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

 - Slightly cooler conditions with continued unsettled weather in
   the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
   persist for the next 24 hrs (through the remainder of the
   weekend).

 - A warming trend with another prolonged period of rain-free days
   begins Monday and will persist through all of the upcoming new
   work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The early afternoon sfc theta-e analysis indicates that the weak
cool front has slipped S to near the SE TX coast into Acadiana
country of S LA, although the actual bndry itself is hard to
discern as sfc winds are consistently NE N of the weak sfc low
over the SW Gulf. Meanwhile, the latest water vapor imagery
indicates weak troughing aloft evident from Srn NM/Far W TX
extending NE through the Big Country into Wrn OK, with weak
ripples in the flow pattern evident over WCntrl TX which has
contributed to enough large scale ascent for bands of convection
from the Big Bend Area through NCntrl and NE TX/SE OK. One such
band has been persistent for much of the morning through early
afternoon over ECntrl TX along and just W of the WFO FWD/SHV CWA
border, with 1-3 inches of rain measured, with an isolated higher
total of 5.54 inches measured by the Trinidad HADS in SW
Henderson County in the last 12 hrs. An MCV has recently developed
within this zone of convection, with the weak NE steering
currents that may result in some of this convection containing
heavy rainfall drifting slowly E into portions of Smith and Wood
Counties this afternoon before gradually weakening late in the
day. Thus, a localized flood threat can not be ruled out for this
area this afternoon given that 1.5-2+ inches has fallen across
this area in the last 48 hrs.

Farther SE, watching bands of convection moving ashore the SCntrl
and SE LA and Srn MS coasts, along the leading edge of an inverted
H925-850 trough associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the SW Gulf. As this low drifts W across the SW Gulf, the inward
advance of the attendant low level inverted trough should allow
for the scattered convection to gradually advance farther WNW into
Cntrl LA late this afternoon, especially as the short term progs
suggest that the inverted H950 trough becomes stationary from N of
LCH to near AEX this evening. The various hi-res progs suggest
that convection may become focused along this bndry this evening
before gradually weakening late, with additional scattered
convection possible late farther N from portions of E TX into NW
LA/Srn AR in VC of the weak upper trough axis. This convection may
linger through Sunday morning, before a deeper wedge of drier air
begins to mix S during the afternoon into Sunday night and
quickly begins to taper the remaining -SHRA from N to S.
Regardless, should see another day or below normal temps under
considerable cloudiness.

Drier air should finally begin to work its way S into the region
Sunday night as NW flow aloft allows the deeper post-frontal dry
air to deepen/spill SE ahead of upper ridging over the Desert SW.
Aside from a weak diurnal cu field over portions of N LA/E TX
Monday, strong insolation will develop, thus yielding a warming
trend with daytime temps returning closer to normal. Humidity
levels will be more comfortable as well as dewpoints mix down into
the 50s, setting the stage for cooler, more pleasant mornings
Tuesday through the remainder of the work week. However, the
warming trend especially in regards to afternoon temps will
commence for mid and late week, with above normal temps returning
as they approach/exceed 90 degrees once again. Unfortunately, the
very warm temps/low RH`s will result in the drying of soils from
areas that did manage to receive rain in the last couple of days,
thus maintaining drought conditions through the foreseeable
future. It remains to be seen as to whether a weak low/trough that
may cut off over TX for late week will be able to garner enough
moisture for the return of scattered convection, but confidence
remains low attm given the large spread amongst the various
guidance.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Beginning the 06z TAF period with a myriad of ceilings ranging IFR
to VFR and just about everything in between along with spotty
showers near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor. As we go through
the night, feel like anything above IFR ceiling wise will become
IFR and we should see an uptick in convection, especially near and
to the southeast of the I-30 Corridor which will encompass most,
if not all of our terminal locations. Have trended ceilings, and
weather this way pre-sunrise and continued this through mid to
late morning for the I-20 terminals and by afternoon at the LFK
terminal. Should see ceilings quickly improve once we lose the
precipitation from northwest to southeast with drier air quickly
infiltrating our region but that improvement in ceilings should
begin by late morning/early afternoon at the TXK/ELD terminals,
and more likely afternoon for the TYR/GGG/SHV and MLU terminals
with LFK not improving to VFR conditions until late
afternoon/early evening on Sunday. Look for mostly northeast winds
near 10kts with an occasional higher gust at times overnight and
through the daytime hours on Sunday.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  82  65  86 /  40  40  10   0
MLU  71  82  64  86 /  40  50  10   0
DEQ  65  85  57  85 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  66  82  60  84 /  30  20   0   0
ELD  67  82  58  86 /  30  30  10   0
TYR  68  81  64  85 /  40  30  10   0
GGG  68  82  62  85 /  40  40  10   0
LFK  72  81  67  86 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13