727
FXUS64 KSHV 091802
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
102 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - The arrival of the post-frontal airmass will continue into this
   evening as dry conditions prevail and cooler overnight lows
   emerge.

 - Relatively mild temperatures will be in the forecast to end the
   week and start the weekend.

 - Temperatures will rebound through the back half of the weekend
   and into next week as we near the low 90`s again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

GOES satellite this afternoon depicts a dramatic difference
across the FA when compared to this time yesterday as we have
replaced a mix of cumulus for clear skies. At the same time,
temperatures are running a few degrees cooler when compared to
just 24 hours ago, with a similar appearance in the regional dew
points. All of this is the result of the slow arrival of a post-
frontal airmass filtering into the region, while a digging trough
across the SE CONUS helps advect a robust layer of dry air from
the north/northeast. This can be seen in the 700-300MB RH output
from the recent deterministic guidance. The result, a notable drop
in dew point temperatures through the next 24 hours, allowing for
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80`s to feel comfortable on
Friday.

This early Fall treat appears to be short lived as ridging across
west Texas slides eastward through the weekend. Locally, temperatures
will begin to climb with highs near 90, potentially even a degree
or two above, as early as Monday. By Tuesday, the center of the
ridge will be just off to the SW, lingering across the mid-TX
coastline, though it`s influence will still be enough to bump
temperatures up once again so that highs at or just above 90 deg F
are borderline areawide. Moisture rounding the western and
northern edges of the upper-level ridge will be close to our
northern zones, but confidence in measurable rainfall in the next
7 days continues to be low.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for days as a huge area of
surface high pressure, anchored in the Great Lakes, extends down
into the lower MS River Valley. NE winds 5-15KT this afternoon
will slack to less than 5KT for the overnight hours, and resume
again for Friday. Few CU and not much else with this dry fall
pattern set to linger into next week with little if any change
aside from sfc winds veering wind to E/SE by Sunday. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  57  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  52  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...24