361
FXUS64 KSHV 111921
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 - Precipitation chances to remain across a large portion of the
   region over the next few days.

 - While it will remain hot this week, rain and cloud cover will
   keep heat index values below critical thresholds for most of
   the region through at least the first half of the week.

 - Unsettled pattern could continue across the region into the
   middle/end of the week, before upper-ridging returns


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Another hot and humid day across the Four State Region. However,
heat index values should remain below the 105 degree advisory
threshold, as cloud cover and isolated to scattered convection is
expected today. Radar has only detected a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms this morning, but this is expected to
change.  A weak upper-level low over East Texas, combined with
daytime heating, should yield more widespread isolated to
scattered convection across most of the region this afternoon
into the early evening hours. Not expecting much in the way of
severe weather, but strong downburst winds can`t be ruled out in
some of the stronger convection. Most of this convection should
diminish after sunset, but a stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out overnight. As we move into Tuesday & Wednesday, the
previously mentioned upper-low will be out of the region.
However, widespread rain chances will remain as an upper-level
trough pushes southward to near the Red River Valley, while
disturbances move along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coasts. Some
locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out during the period.

By the end of the work week into next weekend, upper-ridging will
start to build back into the Southern Plains from the west. At the
same time, upper-ridging will also build into the Lower Mississippi
Valley from the east. This will sandwich the eastern half of our
forecast area between the two ridges. The weakness in this
location could yield some diurnal convection during peak heating.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to climb back into the mid to upper
90s, which could bring a return in heat advisories. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the 11/18z TAFs, low-end VFR clouds are beginning to increase
from the south. Recent radar scans have been clear of any rain,
but some diurnal convection is still expected to begin developing
over the next few hours. Showers should dissipate around sunset
tonight and leave near-calm winds overnight. With the light winds,
future packages may have some more widespread fog development than
currently included. But any fog development should clear within a
few hours of daybreak tomorrow. More showers and thunderstorms
will return tomorrow afternoon, with some VCTS possible at the end
of this period for KLFK and KMLU. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  78  95 /  20  30  10  40
MLU  75  95  75  93 /  20  40  10  60
DEQ  71  95  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
TXK  75  97  76  96 /   0  20  10  30
ELD  73  94  73  94 /  10  30  10  40
TYR  74  95  75  95 /   0  20   0  30
GGG  74  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  40
LFK  74  94  75  95 /  20  50  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57