363
FXUS64 KSHV 031848
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
148 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly for
   our eastern half of the forecast area.

 - Dry and warmer conditions will return to the area tomorrow and
   Friday.

 - The passage of a few cool fronts will bring widespread rain
   chances and cooler weather from Saturday through the first of
   next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A deep longwave trough continues to extend east of the Rockies
eastward through the remainder of the CONUS. This has put most of
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, including our
entire forecast area, in northwesterly flow aloft. A lead
disturbance ahead of a diffused frontal zone brought some
isolated to scattered clusters of convection across the region
this morning. Additional convection is starting to form along and
ahead of the aforementioned frontal zone, as northwest flow
slowly pushes it across the region today. Decided to add rain
chances, generally for areas along and south of a line from
Lufkin, Texas to Dierks, Arkansas. However, short-term progs have
the best chance for convection across our South-Central Arkansas
and most of our Louisiana zones this afternoon. This convection
should diminish by the early evening hours. Another week frontal
boundary will swing across the area overnight, bringing some drier
air over the region for Thursday. With less cloud cover, expect
warmer temperatures, with highs returning into the low to mid 90s.
By Thursday night, a closed upper trough over the Great Lakes
region will start to lift northeastward. At the same time, high
pressure will start to settle across the Gulf. This will allow the
flow to transition to southwesterly across the region on Friday.
Dry conditions will still remain, but with southwesterly winds,
expect highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon.

The upper-level pattern will start to shift again by Friday
evening, as a short-wave trough swings across the Plains, pushing
a cold front southward into our northern zones. Rain chances will
return with this front areawide as it slowly pushes southward
through the region Friday night through Saturday. Behind this
front, the upper pattern will become northwesterly again, bringing
a couple more upper troughs/cool front into the region through
the early portions of next week. This will keep rain chances in
the forecast during this period. Drier weather will return for the
middle of next week, with only some slight rain chances across
the area. One thing of note, long-term progs continue to suggest
we will see cooler temperatures from Saturday through the middle
portion of next week, with overnight lows possibly getting into
the upper 50s in our northern zones by next week. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to impact parts of the
airspace right now. They are scattered enough that they aren`t
likely to impact any airport directly, but mostly remain in the
vicinity of sites along and east of I-49. Rain should dissipate
soon after 00z tonight, giving way to clearing skies overnight.
There may be some fog development as winds calm in several
locations that will clear shortly after sunrise. Depending on how
rain evolves this afternoon, the overnight fog could drop flight
conditions below VFR. Future packages can evaluate this risk
further. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  96  75 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  87  68  95  71 /  40  20   0   0
DEQ  86  64  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  88  68  96  73 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  86  66  94  70 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  87  68  93  73 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  89  67  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  89  68  96  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57