729
FXUS64 KSHV 092042
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
242 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A dynamic heavy rainfall event is ongoing across north-central
Louisiana this afternoon as an axis of deeply rooted gulf moisture
along a stalled frontal boundary and lifting warm front, supported
by additional moisture availability from TC Rafael in the central
GoM, has resulted in a flash flood threat. Training showers and
thunderstorms are slowly moving across the SE zones of the SHV CWA,
and will continue to do so through the late afternoon and evening.
Present thinking is that on top of the general 2-4 inches that have
already fallen across the Flood Watch area, an additional 1-3 inches
are expected with locally higher amounts possible under the heaviest
reflectivity returns and rainfall rates. It is no surprise that this
scenario has evolved as it has given the perfect positioning of TC
Rafael for extra moisture propagation, while a stalled frontal axis
lingers across western Louisiana.

As mentioned, the heavy rainfall threat will continue into the
evening and likely the early stages of the overnight period before a
gradual weakening trend begins. Thinking is that the stalled
boundary will begin to move east as surface high pressure builds in
from the west. Hi-res solutions seem to be in pretty good agreement
that as the boundary moves east through the mid to late morning and
early afternoon of Sunday, a few showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two may be possible. By the evening, the majority of
the CWA will be rain free, as the boundary works closer to the LA/MS
line.

Temperature forecast remains tricky, citing heavy cloud coverage,
frontal influence and PoPs. A range of 70`s to near 80 deg F will
be possible tomorrow after starting in the 50`s and 60`s during
the morning. With the passing front, much of the region should
see mid to upper 50`s heading into Monday morning.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

When compared to the short term package, the long term appears
rather benign. That being said, still trending above average for
temperatures through the week as daily max temps approach the upper
70`s to near 80 deg F. Deterministic guidance looks to be coming
into more agreement synoptically through mid-week with upper ridging
moving across the southern CONUS ahead of troughing by Wednesday.
This will work to swing a cold front into the region once again,
with long range deterministic output across both the GFS and
ECMWF advertising the chance for showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms. Again, this is still deep into the forecast package
so monitoring trends in the coming days will help increase
confidence moving forward.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

IFR/LIFR cigs with reduced vsbys will continue through much of the
18Z TAF period, as a weak sfc front has become stationary across
SW AR/extreme NW LA/Lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep E TX.
Extended areas of convection will linger though ahead of the front
from Lower Toledo Bend NE into Cntrl and NE LA through the
afternoon and overnight hours, affecting the MLU terminal through
the evening before becoming more intermittent. Isolated thunder
can not be ruled out through mid-afternoon at MLU, which has been
tempoed in, but otherwise, this terminal should be the only
terminal with active RA through the TAF period. VFR cigs which
have developed at ELD/MLU may linger through mid-afternoon before
MVFR cigs redevelop, and become IFR during the evening. Farther W
along the front, areas of FG/BR have developed at TXK/SHV, and may
persist through much of the TAF period before the front finally
begins to drift back SE after daybreak Sunday, allowing for slowly
improving cigs/vsbys. Meanwhile, the back edge of the MVFR cigs
should remain near TYR through the evening, which may scatter out
here briefly this afternoon before filling back in this evening.
Some clearing should occur here once the front begins moving
Sunday morning, with VFR conditions gradually spreading SE across
the region during the afternoon, just beyond the scope of this TAF
period. Lt NW winds over E TX behind the front, and Light E winds
ahead of it over SCntrl AR/N LA, will becoming Lt/Vrb after 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  78  59  77 /  20  20  10   0
MLU  66  78  60  76 /  80  40  20  10
DEQ  49  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  76  52  74 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  63  77  54  76 /  40  30  10   0
TYR  58  79  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  77  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  64  79  59  78 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ013-014-018>022.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...15