270
FXUS64 KSHV 120904
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
404 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates that our closed
low was centered over Cntrl LA, although the latest few scans have
shown that the low has begun to wobble E a bit, with this trend
expected to continue today as it drifts into the Lower MS Valley.
A deeper wedge of drier air aloft has already infiltrated into
this system especially along the Wrn and Srn flanks of the center,
although the latest mosaic radar imagery indicates scattered
convection continues to develop/spread WSW across NCntrl AR,
although isolated -SHRA have recently developed and spread into
the Nrn sections of SW AR. This trend will continue today with
some increase in coverage especially as better diurnal heating
develops, as the low begins to drift into Cntrl MS by afternoon.
Also seeing patchy areas of -RA/-DZ on the latest radar imagery
across Wrn Sabine Parish along the NW side of the H850 low over
Cntrl LA, although this should diminish around or shortly after
daybreak as the low center drifts W. Satellite imagery and sfc obs
also reveal areas of FG that has developed with breaks in the low
cigs have developed over portions of Srn AR/NCntrl LA, and while
some patchy dense FG have been noted, would prefer to continue to
monitor trends and forego a Dense FG Adv. attm as additional cigs
overspread this area which would allow for vsbys to improve.

As the low wobbles E today, additional isolated to scattered
convection should develop over SW AR/extreme NE TX/N LA on its
backside, as some instability develops with better diurnal
heating. Was a little more ambitious with pops than the NBM,
expanding slight chance/low chance pops farther W and S given the
various model consensus, and even extended slight chance pops this
evening for SW AR/extreme Nrn LA before the low and attendant
forcing is able to shift NNE into Wrn TN and the TN Valley. With
the gradual departure of the low and increased insolation, a
warming trend will commence today with near to slightly below
normal temps expected as the lower cigs gradually lift. Wrap-
around cigs should also diminish tonight allowing for one more
night of seasonal min temps under good radiational cooling
conditions, before an early summer mini-heat wave commences
Tuesday through the remainder of the new work week. Srly low level
winds will also return to the region Tuesday, which will reflect
an increase in mid/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints that will
persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Following the return of the above normal heat Tuesday, upper level
ridging will expand ENE from the Srn Plains into the MS Valley
Wednesday, with increased subsidence resulting the onset of early
summer heat across the region. Sfc low pressure over Ern CO is
progged to shift E into Wrn KS during the day, which will allow
for the W TX dryline to mix E into Cntrl TX, and for sfc troughing
to lift NE into SE OK/SW AR/N LA by afternoon. This should result
in some SW component to the wind, which would only help to
exasperate temps into near/just shy of record levels in the mid
90s across much of E TX/Wrn LA/SW AR. Did have to taper back to
hotter NBM temps a tad, as it was trying to suggest triple digit
heat for LFK, which is extremely unrealistic given how wet the
ground conditions are attm, and the fact that this would occur
some 3+ weeks ahead of the earliest 100 degree day on record for
this location.

Upper ridging will continue to shift E into the Lower MS Valley
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, ahead of an upper trough
ejection from the Rockies into the Midwest. Ahead of this
attendant trough, considerable elevated cigs in the SW flow will
increase atop the ridge over the Srn Plains and Four State Region,
which may help to taper the extent of insolation. However, lower
to possibly mid 90 degree temps will continue through at least
Friday mainly SE of the I-30 corridor, although capping and the
lack of deep low low moisture will maintain our drying trend
through at least Thursday night. The ejection of the trough axis
may help to nudge a weak sfc front into portions of the Red River
Valley into Ern OK/Wrn AR Thursday before becoming stationary, and
while isolated convection can`t be ruled out Thursday night
across portions of SE OK/SW AR, this bndry should lift back N
Friday and focus more scattered convection development as
additional weaknesses traverse the WSW flow aloft. A period of
potentially unsettled weather looks to commence Friday afternoon
through next weekend as potential bndrys from the initial
convection development become the catalyst for additional isolated
to scattered convection as additional perturbations further
suppress the upper ridging over the Lower MS Valley, and allow for
convection to build father S into the area. Pops will continue to
be refined as we draw closer to week`s end, but above normal
temps and high humidity will continue to be the norm throughout
the remainder of the extended period. Will have to wait to see how
the medium range progs` amplification of upper ridging over the
Lower MS Valley will have on max temps early next week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR is already going south in a a
couple of locales with many seeing LIFR/IFR around daybreak. MVFR
to VFR late morning into the afternoon with a chance for some more
late day convection along and east of I-49. Light NW winds will
continue into the midday and then back to W/SW late in the day. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  62  90  71 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  78  61  88  69 /  30  20   0   0
DEQ  78  57  87  64 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  80  61  89  69 /  40  20   0   0
ELD  75  58  88  66 /  50  20   0   0
TYR  81  62  90  72 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  60  90  70 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  80  61  92  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24