503
FXUS64 KSHV 070701
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
101 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

The stalled cold front should begin to retrograde today, which
will allow for some scattered showers across the area.
Temperatures will also climb a few degrees across the region, but
thankfully no wholesale change in temperatures are expected.
However, by Friday, the upper-level low will begin to eject into
the Plains, which will greatly increase our rain chances into the
weekend.

Over the course of the short-term, no weather hazards or impacts
are anticipated.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

The bulk of this rainfall should work into the region by Friday
night, as the upper-level low and cold front continue to push
east. At this time, the threat for organized severe weather seems
to be diminishing, as there will be a lack of instability across
the region. However, I`m not willing to write that possibility off
just yet. With that being said, some of this rainfall could be
heavy at times, with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding possible through Sunday evening. This cold front also
looks to become displaced from the main trough, stalling out along
the I-30 corridor. This will shift the heaviest rain axis to our
far eastern zones, before it finally exits the region on Monday. This
will allow for a brief dry spell, before another system may clip
the region towards the middle of the workweek. This will increase
rain chances across the region once again.

Aside from the locally heavy rainfall over the weekend, no
additional hazardous weather or impacts are anticipated over the
long-term.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the 07/06Z TAF period, expanding stratus deck will gradually
overtake our entire airspace overnight through Thursday morning
with widespread MVFR/IFR cigs and eventually LIFR at most sites
closer to daybreak. In addition, cannot rule out some patchy fog
with reduced vsbys but this should be more localized compared to
the more widespread low cigs. Gradual improvement is expected by
the afternoon with MVFR/low VFR cigs returning. A few spotty
showers will be possible across our eastern terminals so did add
VCSH at both KELD/KMLU through the overnight hours. Otherwise,
look for light N/NE winds overnight to trend more E/NE on Thursday
between 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  64  76  67 /  10  20  50  80
MLU  78  63  78  67 /  10  20  40  60
DEQ  73  56  68  57 /  10  10  50  80
TXK  74  59  71  62 /   0  10  40  80
ELD  72  57  72  61 /  10  20  50  70
TYR  75  65  74  62 /  10  20  60  80
GGG  76  63  74  63 /  10  30  60  90
LFK  82  68  79  66 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19