969
FXUS64 KSHV 281749
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

As of 10 AM CST, calm and variable winds are starting to slowly
gain a light southerly component as surface ridging begins to
shift towards the Gulf Coast. The subsequent subsidence from this
ridging will suppress cumulus cloud fields through the afternoon
(some high cirrus clouds from the west can`t be ruled out),
allowing for insolation and afternoon temperature maximums in the
lower 70s. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this
time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Under the subsident effects in the wake of yesterday`s frontal
passage, quiet weather conditions will persist throughout the
duration of this short term forecast period. Temperatures will begin
their warming trend, with low to middle 70s expected areawide this
afternoon. Southwesterly winds will become northerly into the day
tomorrow, remaining fairly light throughout. The prevailing airmass
will remain sufficiently dry to allow for rapid cooling through the
evening and overnight hours into the mid to upper 40s by daybreak
Saturday, followed by another warm and mostly clear afternoon, as
highs climb back into the low to mid 70s, with a few more sites
taking aim at the upper 70s south and west.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

The passage of a dry frontal boundary by the middle of this weekend
will put a bit of a dent in our warming trend, with highs in the 60s
northeast to lower 70s southwest on Sunday afternoon, while
increasing cloud cover builds in from the west late in the day. A
small upper level low will slide eastward late Sunday into Monday,
kicking up areas of showers and storms advancing in from the west
across east Texas after sundown Sunday, continuing overnight before
coming to a brief end Monday afternoon. No sooner will these showers
depart to the east than our next, and significantly more impactful,
chance of rain will be knocking on our northwestern doorstep.

While the ArkLaTex is dealing with some scattered showers Monday, a
large longwave trough over the Intermountain West will amplify as it
pushes east over the Rockies. The latest GFS guidance depicts this
trough ejecting sharply to the northeast over the Central Plains
early Tuesday. Upper level flow curving around the southern side of
this feature will place a tight gradient of southwesterly flow
directly over the ArkLaTex. Reinforced by southerly surface flow, a
warm, ripe environment will be primed and ready for upper level
forcing to bring severe weather to the region Tuesday. It is still
too early to speak to precise timing or modes of severe weather, but
this setup is represented with sufficient confidence across long
range guidance to merit inclusion of the eastern half the Four State
Region in a 30% outlook area in the SPC`s Day 5 severe weather
outlook, with the western half of the region in a 15% outlook area.

As Tuesday`s upper level trough lifts north and east, storms will
come to an end overnight into Wednesday, followed by quiet and
cooler conditions prevailing, as highs climb only into the 60s.
Upper level ridging will build in late in the week, concluding this
forecast as it began, with a gradual warming trend.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

For the 28/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the period with mostly SKC aside from cirrus increasing later this
evening and overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Breezy
S/SW winds will average between 6-12 kts this afternoon with some
slightly higher gusts in excess of 15 kts. Otherwise, winds shift
to N/NW then N/NE after fropa between 12Z-15Z on Saturday morning.
Wind speeds behind the front will generally remain below 10 kts
through the end of the period as SKC conditions return areawide.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  43  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19